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It is predicted that the transaction of warrants in Hong Kong market will exceed trillion yuan this year, and the mainland warrant market is expected to surpass Hong Kong
Securities Times reporter Guo Lei
A report from our newspaper Since the Bank of China issued 33 warrants on Monday, the proportion of Hong Kong warrant market turnover in the market volume has risen steadily. On Tuesday, it reached a record high of 31.82%, and yesterday it still stood at 30.51%. International Federation of Stock Exchanges
According to the statistics of, from January to May this year, the trading volume of warrants in Hong Kong, Germany and mainland China ranked among the top three in the world. Li Songci, executive director of Goldman Sachs Asia, who has the reputation of "Queen of Warrants" in Hong Kong, boldly predicted that the total transaction amount of warrants in Hong Kong in 2006 was expected to exceed 1 trillion Hong Kong dollars. At the same time, she is optimistic about the mainland warrant market and believes that the trading volume of the mainland warrant market is expected to exceed that of Hong Kong.
Hong Kong and the Mainland come from behind
According to the International Federation of Stock Exchanges, from 2003 to 2005, Hong Kong has become the world's highest trading warrant market for three consecutive years. From January to May this year, the total transaction amount of the Hong Kong warrant market was US $79.2 billion, still the most active warrant market in the world. Germany, mainland China, Italy and Euronext ranked second with US $57.7 billion, US $52.3 billion, US $23.6 billion and US $22.3 billion respectively. Compared with the old market in Europe, the securities derivatives market in Hong Kong and the mainland can be described as a latecomer.
In Asia, Hong Kong and mainland warrant markets are far ahead of the rest. Li Songci said that in the first quarter of this year, the total transaction amount of China, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan and other markets was less than half of that of Hong Kong, reflecting that Hong Kong's share warrant market was leading in the region. She also emphasized that the turnover of Singapore market is only 4% of that of Hong Kong, and it is not a competitor of Hong Kong market. Recently, on the first day of the listing of large state-owned enterprises, warrant issuers are often the first to issue relevant warrants on the Singapore Stock Exchange.
As an emerging market, the trading volume of warrants in Hong Kong and the Mainland has exceeded that in many mature markets. Li Songci believes that this is mainly because investors in different markets have different preferences. In the warrant markets in Hong Kong and China, 100% of them are ordinary subscriptions and warrants, but only 47% and 60% of them are in Germany and Italy, and more than 50% and 20% of the trading volume of Bull and Bear Securities are respectively, and most of their derivatives are not listed. There is no warrant in the US market, because the trading volume of listed options in the US is already very large, and warrants are very similar to listed options, so the warrant market has not developed.
Annual turnover of Hong Kong may exceed trillion yuan
Looking forward to the situation of the warrant market in the second half of the year, Li Songci said that the warrants related to state-owned enterprises' shares are expected to continue to become the focus of the market. In addition, if the trading of Bull Bear Securities can continue to grow in the second half of the year, it is expected to make the market more diversified. In the following half year, the market will pick up again, and the market holding of put warrants may rise again to the high level in April this year. In addition, as more financial shares of large state-owned enterprises come to Hong Kong for listing, it is believed that the share warrants related to these shares will continue to be popular with investors, thus stimulating the transaction of the overall share warrant market. Goldman Sachs expects that the total transaction amount of the warrant market in 2006 will probably exceed the level of 1 trillion Hong Kong dollars.
It is generally believed in the market that when a certain positive stock has a large number of warrants listed at the same time, the issuer will stimulate the transaction and price rise of the positive stock because it wants to absorb relevant positive stocks for hedging. Li Songci believed that, in fact, the impact of the listing of warrants on the transaction of related positive shares and the stock price was inconsistent. She said: "We found that after the listing of BOCOM's warrant, its ten day average share price increased by about 11% compared with the average price ten days before the listing of the warrant; and in terms of transaction amount, after the listing of the warrant, the ten day average transaction amount of BOCOM also increased by about 67% compared with the average amount ten days before the listing of the warrant. As for CCB, the situation is just the opposite of BOCOM. Ten days after the listing of CCB's relevant warrants, the average share price fell by about 1% compared with the average price ten days before the listing of the warrants; In terms of transaction amount, after the listing of the warrant, the average transaction amount of CCB in the ten days was about 30% lower than that in the ten days before the listing of the warrant. "
Mainland warrant market has great potential
The mainland only launched warrants last August. At present, there are only 12 warrants, but the trading volume has ranked third in the world and second in Asia. The trading volume of warrants once accounted for more than 80% of the total transactions in the market, with an average of 9%.
In this regard, Li Songci said that it is a good thing that the warrant market in the mainland can develop so fast in such a short period of time, but the mainland warrants are cooperative Non tradable shares The new investment product, a derivative instrument launched in the reform, has attracted a lot of attention. However, there is still much work to be done if it is to develop into a perfect warrant market like other international markets. At present, there are not many choices for mainland investors, and we hope to further increase investment products. She believes that as time goes by, investors will know more about this product, and the market will gradually improve. The mainland warrant market will have a good prospect, and may even surpass Hong Kong to become the world's largest warrant market.
As for the rise of the mainland warrant market, some Hong Kong media feared that it would threaten the Hong Kong warrant market. Li Songci said that he did not need to worry at all, because overseas warrant issuers cannot enter the mainland market at present, investors in the two markets are also different, and the mainland's warrant issuance rules, and even the entire operation mode, are also very different from Hong Kong.
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