|
Li Jin, Senior Vice President of Faxing Securities (Hong Kong)
After nearly two months of sharp rise in the market, state-owned enterprise shares began to encounter greater adjustment pressure. The state-owned enterprise index has fallen below the 10 day average, indicating that the short-term rise is complete, and it may be consolidated in 10 days and 50 days to digest the pressure. In fact, state-owned enterprise shares have accumulated a considerable increase since the beginning of the year, and it is normal to see adjustments.
When the stock price enters consolidation from a unilateral market, the historical volatility will naturally fall back from the high. Since February 20, taking CCB as an example, the 10 day historical fluctuation has dropped from the previous highest 49% to 27.8%; For Guoshou, which has a large fluctuation recently, its 10 day historical fluctuation was as high as 55.4% earlier and has now fallen back to 34.9%.
For warrant investors, when the positive share price has a large fluctuation, there are more opportunities to make profits from investing in warrants, and the return is also considerable. If the volatility of positive shares is on the rise, the investment environment of warrants will be more ideal. Because the implied volatility of warrants will rise, the price of warrants will also benefit; On the contrary, if the positive shares are consolidated and the volatility narrows, the difficulty of investing in warrants will increase. In view of the fact that the historical volatility of state-owned enterprise shares has dropped, investors need to be more alert when buying and selling related warrants. Because the implied volatility of warrants may gradually decrease with the historical volatility, warrant prices will face greater pressure.
If the implied amplitude really drops, it may be necessary to make corresponding adjustments in the market response strategy. In general, the implied volatility of warrants will not be significantly reduced at a time, but it is more likely to be gradually adjusted downward. In order to minimize the impact of implied volatility decline, investors can consider adopting shorter trading strategies to shorten the time of each position, so as to reduce the risk of implied volatility decline when exposed to the market.
It is advisable to adopt a conservative strategy in the selection of warrants, and avoid selecting some stocks whose implied volatility is significantly higher than the market level, because the potential decline of their implied volatility is relatively large. The market entry object can be placed on some warrants with a higher price or a lower price. Because such warrants are less sensitive to the implied amplitude, they are slightly affected by the implied amplitude compared with other securities out of the price. The leverage of out of price warrants may be high, but the time value loss is large. If combined with the reduction of implied volatility, the expected effect of higher leverage may not be achieved. Unless it is believed that the positive shares will rise significantly, which is enough to offset the above two adverse factors, the trading strategy of out of price warrants should be more short-term.
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
|
