Tianxiang Investment: Which stocks have the expectation of warrants

Fan Xiangpeng, a consultant of Tianxiang Investment

The listing of Baosteel JTB1 (580000) opened the door to the closing of warrant trading for nine years. Calculated at the opening guidance price of 0.688 yuan set by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the three-day increase was 262.79%; At the opening price of 1.263 yuan, the three-day increase was 43.15%. This is far beyond people's expectations. Baosteel Warrant（ information quotation forum ）The "hot" listing is due to the scarcity of products and certain fund speculation, which is a normal phenomenon. The high-profile appearance of Baosteel warrants has raised people's expectations for the value of warrants. We believe that

Investors should not only focus on Baosteel Warrants and Changdian Warrants, but should look for investment opportunities in stocks with warrant expectations.

We first select companies that are eligible to issue warrants according to the Interim Measures for the Administration of Warrants of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Interim Measures for the Administration of Warrants of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and then use the Tianxiang Warrant Price Calculation Model (Black Scholes method) to calculate the respective warrant prices of companies that are eligible to issue warrants. Finally, we selected the companies with the highest rate of ownership and the highest rate of return on the day of listing to provide investors with stock selection reference.

We mainly apply the following three regulations in the Interim Measures to all the

We believe that the companies that have completed the split share structure reform and have been fully circulated will not issue warrants for the time being. The issuance of warrants is likely to be combined with the split share structure reform, so the above two types of companies are also excluded. After screening, 29 companies entered the stock pool.

Whether 29 companies will issue warrants or not, as well as the exercise price and duration of warrants, is unknown. To compare, we must make the following assumptions:

1、 1 warrant for every 10 outstanding shares; 2、 Warrants are par warrants, that is, the exercise price is equal to the stock price (the stock price in this article is August 22, 2005); 3、 The volatility is the volatility of the past year; 4、 The risk-free interest rate is 1.8% of the one-year bank deposit interest rate; 5、 Warrants are covered warrants issued by major shareholders, similar to Baosteel Warrants.

Under the above assumptions, we calculated the warrant prices of 29 companies respectively through the Tianxiang warrant price measurement model (Black Scholes method). The results are shown in the table.

The results in the table show that ZTE（ information quotation forum ）The highest price of the warrant is 3.6893 yuan, China Unicom（ information quotation forum ）The lowest price of warrants is 0.3128 yuan, and Haihong Holdings（ information quotation forum ）Among the 29 companies, the right rate is the highest, that is, the value of warrants per unit is the highest. Assume that all warrants will rise or fall on the day of listing（ information quotation forum ）The daily yield of warrants is the highest, 114.24%. From the perspective of equity scale, Sinopec（ information quotation forum ）China Merchants Bank（ information quotation forum ）China Unicom and Vanke（ information quotation forum ）A. The probability of issuing warrants is the highest.

We believe that with the further popularity of Baosteel's warrants, the hot spot in the market will spread to such stocks in the near future. Investors should focus on the trend of these 29 companies and seize investment opportunities.