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□ Our reporter Ma Tao
"Now is the best time. It's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity. It's a pity that we can't buy it." Zhu Meisheng said with a touch of chest thumping.
Zhu Meisheng is a Taiwanese who has invested heavily in Shanghai real estate for more than five years. After the policy of restricting foreign capital to purchase houses was issued, he
Can't continue to invest in the property market.
When the problem of high housing prices has become a social problem, Zhu Meisheng and his friends still feel that it is an opportunity that housing prices are cheap everywhere.
Zhu Meisheng entered the property market after Shanghai merged domestic and export houses in 2001, while funds from Wenzhou, the first prosperous area in mainland China, had already infiltrated the property market in Shanghai in 1998. It is these domestic and foreign rich capital that have flooded in, making Shanghai locals feel that the commercial housing that is unattainable is not difficult to sell.
This scene in Shanghai is being staged all over the country.
Taipei, Tokyo and Shanghai
"At 20000 yuan per square meter, you can only buy public houses in Taipei, but you can buy very good houses in Shanghai. How can you not have the opportunity?" Zhu Meisheng's words can fully represent the perspective of the property market funds flocking to major cities in the mainland.
Zhu Meisheng often gives an example: his old house in Taiwan has increased 40 times in 30 years. It is not the stock market or other investment channels with higher professional threshold that can create millionaires in batches, but the real estate market. This is Zhu's conclusion after summarizing the experience of many countries. After the acceleration of China's economic growth, Zhu and his friends realized that the opportunity of building wealth in the real estate market, which had been staged in Southeast Asian countries, had come again.
Before the introduction of the policy of restricting foreign investment, Zhu Meisheng had nine properties under his name. Now they are all leased. Compared with the monthly supply, the rental return rate is 5% for residential buildings and 8% for office buildings. At the same time, the house price is still rising (he doesn't care about short-term price fluctuations at all), which makes him very satisfied. In recent years, he has handled about 40 houses.
"There are still many friends who have not come in before, and they are waiting for the opportunity to enter the site, and each of them has 30 or 50 million yuan." Zhu Meisheng said, "Any property is attractive. I hope that the policy will allow us to buy houses in the future."
Zhu Meisheng is a long-term investment - although he also makes short-term transactions when the heat is highest - the long-term investment value is the fundamental factor for his investment in the property market. Having experienced the rapid development period of Southeast Asia, he knows very well what will happen in the stage of rapid economic growth in mainland China.
Looking at the prospect of the property market from the perspective of short-term housing price changes, the conclusion is naturally different, which is exactly the same as the motivation of international big investment banks to invest in office buildings, apartments and villas.
"When investing in office buildings for rent, there is nearly 9% of gross profit, while most foreign investors are very satisfied with 7% of gross profit," said Chen Limin, director of Jones Lang LaSalle Asia, a global property consultancy management company, Otherwise, I would not enter in such a hurry.
"The house price in Tokyo is 10 times that in Shanghai. How could Shanghai not have a chance?" Chen Limin said. From the perspective of cost, it is easy to understand the huge amount of foreign investment: there is no much difference between Tokyo and Shanghai in infrastructure and talent reserves. The 10 times difference in housing prices and wages means a sharp drop in operating costs, and the profit margin of any industry is not much lower than that of Japan. However, China's market has huge space in the future, and foreign-funded enterprises are bound to march into Shanghai in a large scale, This will inevitably lead to a shortage of office buildings. "With the opening up of the banking industry, the demand for office buildings has been boosted. Within two years, the supply of office buildings in Shanghai still exceeds the demand," Chen Limin added.
Long term funds with an overseas perspective, relying on their firm confidence in China's economic growth, firmly set the high-quality property in China's major cities at a high level.
"We will come back"
It is also true that foreign capital was once considered to be the culprit of high housing prices. However, Wu Liliang, the general manager of CB Richard Ellis Shanghai, a multinational property consultant, has the opposite view: "I think it is not overseas investors, but domestic investors in China who have caused the rise of China's housing prices."
"The actual foreign investment is to support the high-end market, which provides a psychological support for the market." Feng Wei, the marketing director of Shanghai Huangdao Real Estate Studio, said that he believes that the hot money has the strongest practical driving force for housing prices. "In 2003 and 2004, when it was the most powerful, the funds in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces were all sold." Feng Wei is talking about private funds represented by the famous Wenzhou Real Estate speculators. The price of any asset is discovered and formed by a stream of mainstream funds. Obviously, this stream of hot money, the real estate speculators, is the mainstream force to raise the house price.
"Real estate speculators have become history," Lin Rongshi said. "Who dares to mention it?"
Lin Rongshi, the general manager of Shanghai Daobang Investment Consulting Co., Ltd., once led Wenzhou to invest 500 million yuan in real estate Shanghai property market In the big market, "in addition to the dozens of people we worked closely with, the funds that followed us at that time were estimated to be 1 billion to 2 billion."
According to Lin Rongshi's statistics, there are 39 heads of Wenzhou real estate speculators, which can conservatively estimate the size of this fund, which has always been called Wenzhou real estate speculators. And bank mortgage has at least quadrupled this capital. If the down payment is 20%, 200000 yuan can operate a house with a total value of 1 million yuan, and the house price rises by 20%, which means 100% profit for property speculators. Similar to margin trading in futures, mortgage has become the best auxiliary tool for this fund to obtain huge profits.
"A boss in Wenzhou invested about 40 million yuan in 100 houses and cashed out more than 200 million yuan during the peak period." Lin Rongshi gave an example. Zhu Meisheng also gave an example of Shanghai natives: borrowed 200000 yuan, and fired more than 3 million yuan in three years.
Lin Rongshi believed that the funds that entered Wenzhou in the early stage were relatively rational, mainly the local private enterprise bosses in Wenzhou. They went to Shanghai to buy houses in 1998. The house prices at that time were very cheap for them, and they bought houses for their own use. Later, house prices gradually rose, and they began to increase investment in 2002. This fund entered the market early. It basically withdrew from the market in the middle of 2005, and some moved to the property market in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other places. However, the funds that entered the property market at the hottest time after 2004 are relatively passive and costly, and it is difficult to cash out at present.
In March 2005, the State Council issued an eight point opinion to stabilize housing prices. On May 11, the State Council forwarded the Opinions of seven ministries and commissions on doing a good job in stabilizing housing prices, which significantly upgraded the regulation of housing prices. The year after that, a suppression policy was introduced in tax and other aspects, but housing prices were still strong, but the local second-hand housing transactions in Shanghai were no longer active as before.
Last summer, when the dispute about the price of housing was at its height, the fund had changed its mind and turned to the stock market. At that time, the stock market was facing the most pessimistic moment when it fell below 1000 points. "We have to stay ahead of the market. In the stock market, our capital has doubled."
For the fund that has the deepest understanding of the market economy, the journey of pursuing profits is far from over. Coal mines and stock markets are all trading partners. "The idea of what this fund is supposed to do is the same, united, ruthless, and very professional." Lin Rongshi believes that the way of making profits from this fund has inspired local funds in Shanghai, More and more funds have been added to the hype, so after a smoke of gunpowder, a social topic of intense debate has been left.
But in the view of those more professional researchers, it is obviously a misunderstanding to blame hot money for driving up house prices. On December 22, CITIC Securities Research Institute released a report on the real estate industry, "Inventory 2006, Hard to Say Results of Regulation", which believed that speculation was wrongly taken as the main reason for the rise of house prices, leading to the hard to say results of the real estate regulation policy. Why does the capital flow into the property market continuously? Because the capital owner realized that in the long run, from the basic relationship between supply and demand, the house price was underestimated. The current real estate market, in addition to investment demand, is more of a demand for self occupancy. Therefore, measures such as regulating foreign investment and restricting circulation cannot fundamentally curb the rise of house prices.
"We will return to the real estate market in two years," Lin Rongshi told reporters. "The real estate market is far from over."
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