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Yi Yangfang
In the last month, the warrant is undoubtedly the most popular variety in the market. The daily trading volume of just a few warrants exceeded the total trading volume of stocks, reaching 78 billion yuan. Some people have made statistics that the funds involved in warrant trading are only about 1.4 billion yuan. According to this calculation, these funds need to trade back and forth as many as 6 times a day on average. The enthusiasm of warrant participants can be seen.
Looking at the trading price of warrants, those of us who have been struggling in the market for many years really shook our heads. Taking Baosteel's warrants as an example, the exercise price of 4.5 yuan and the warrant price of up to 1.6 yuan mean that the price of Baosteel's regular shares will rise to more than 6.1 yuan before August 30, 2006. Talents who buy Baosteel's warrants at more than 1.6 yuan may benefit from the exercise. We analyze the situation of the steel industry in the next few months. After two years of expansion, the domestic steel production capacity is now up to 450 million tons per year, and the excess capacity may be in 100 million tons. In the face of fierce competition, Baosteel lowered its product prices for the first time in six years, with an average reduction of more than 10%. The main cost components of steel, such as coal price and iron ore price, are high. The loss of the whole steel industry in the middle of next year is absolutely not alarmist. As the most profitable steel enterprise in China, Baosteel will not lose money in the face of the cold current in the industry, but its performance will inevitably decline. Baosteel's share price will rise from about 4 yuan at present to more than 6.1 yuan in the next eight months, which may be small. Since the stock price cannot rise, only the warrant price will fall.
Since the price of warrants is going to fall, why do participants continue to follow suit? It cannot be explained by rational investment, but only by speculation. Warrant buyers all think they are smart. They believe that the price of warrants will rise from the next minute when they buy warrants, just like pyramid selling or drumming game. Some people will take delivery at a higher price. All participants believe that they are not the ones who take the last shot. Some so-called experts also gave advice on participating in warrant speculation: Do not hold warrants overnight. Who knows, someone must hold it overnight.
For rational investors such as funds, we will not take the initiative to participate in the current trading of warrants. The only thing we can do is to sell the passively acquired warrants at a good price and charge three or five buckets more. For the current hot warrants, we can only give a slightly crazy evaluation. As with investment, speculation is a profit model. The two bear different risks for different reasons. Moderate speculation is a good lubricant, which can effectively increase market activity. However, excessive speculation is the same as gambling, which will increase the risk of the market and is not conducive to the healthy development of the market.
Brokers have benefited a lot from this round of hot warrants trading. They can not only obtain commissions from the hot warrants trading, but also create warrants for profit. Some brokers' income in the latest month exceeds the total of the past 10 months. More importantly, securities companies and other institutions can generate new profit models through financial innovation negotiable securities After four and a half consecutive years of market decline, there is a new dawn.
Innovation can bring vitality, which may be another important enlightenment from the popularity of warrants. For funds, innovation is also important. (The author is the general manager of the investment management department of Guangfa Fund Management Company, and Guangfa Jufu（ information net worth forum ）Fund Manager)
The article is purely a personal point of view, for reference only, and is responsible for its own writing. Readers enter the market accordingly, and bear the risk
The author declares that, within the knowledge of the institution and myself, the institution, myself and the property stakeholders have no interest in the securities under evaluation
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
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