|
Our reporter Wang Tao reports from Shanghai
Warrant expansion
"These two days, we are also paying attention to the warrant varieties that will be listed soon. The company will study their investment value, and it is difficult to draw a conclusion at present." A fund manager in Shanghai said that recently, the fund company began to warm up for the upcoming warrant expansion.
On November 23, 474 million call warrants and 474 million put warrants presented by WISCO (600005) to shareholders of tradable shares will be listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange.
This is the second warrant listed on the Exchange after the listing of Baosteel Warrants (580000) on August 22, and will kick off the massive expansion of warrants. Relevant statistics show that the total number of listed warrants is expected to exceed 4 billion in the next month, an increase of more than 10 times over the current number.
The investment strategy of fund companies on Baosteel warrants is generally recognized by the industry. Among the circulating shareholders of WISCO, there are a large number of fund companies, which have had the amazing performance of the roller coaster after the listing of Baosteel warrants. The performance after the listing of WISCO warrants will be the focus of fund managers.
Vanke (00000 2), which adopts the pure warrant scheme for share reform, will receive 8 warrants for every 10 outstanding A-shares, and the scale of Vanke's warrants will reach 2.14 billion.
In addition, the warrant scheme that has been approved by the shareholders' meeting at present also includes 233 million new steel vanadium (000629) warrants, 583 million Changdian (600900) warrants, and 200 million Baiyun Airport (600004) warrants will be reviewed on December 6.
It is reported that New Steel Vanadium, Vanke and other warrants are expected to be collectively unveiled at the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in December.
Since Wuhan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. and Vanke are all fund heavy positions, after obtaining the allocated warrants, the operation ideas of fund managers are very important, which will also determine the market performance of warrants after listing.
According to statistics, G Baosteel (600019) held by the Fund accounted for 44.52% of its outstanding shares in total. In addition to G Baosteel held by various institutions, 70% of the shares of Baosteel's warrants were held by institutional investors at the initial stage of listing.
There is no doubt that funds will play an important role after the expansion and listing of warrants. Will they passively cash out or take the initiative? The time is coming to test fund companies' understanding of the value of warrants.
Divergence in warrant value
The temptation of warrant T+0 for fund companies to increase trading volume is obvious.
In order to promote the enthusiasm of securities dealers to sell funds on a commission basis, it is an open secret in the industry that fund companies promise to give securities dealers 10 to 20 times the trading volume.
Generally speaking, 20 times of trading volume is an impossible task, but the role of warrants is obviously revolutionary.
Due to the T+0 trading mode of Baosteel's warrants, capital can go back and forth several times in a trading day after buying the warrants, and the trading volume can be multiplied to countless times. Some business departments even speculate on Baosteel's warrants with a chassis of 2 million yuan, which can achieve a trading volume of more than 100 million.
"In the warrants of Baosteel, the fund companies have seldom heard of similar phenomena. In addition, the fund funds are large and the supervision of the exchange is relatively strict. It is not realistic to trade through warrants. Of course, after the large-scale expansion of warrants, it is not ruled out that funds have such motives, which requires the company's self-discipline and supervision to continue to strengthen supervision." A fund manager said.
However, just when the market invested a lot of enthusiasm in warrant expansion, the social security has said "no" to warrant investment.
On November 8, 2005, the Council of the Social Security Fund has sent a notice to its social security portfolio manager:
Do not take the initiative to buy warrants. For entrusted portfolio Non tradable shares The allocated warrants can be sold or exercised at maturity in the secondary market.
However, in the regulatory storm launched by the CSRC and the Exchange, the speculation of Baosteel's warrants did not stop, but reached the peak again. On November 16, the turnover rate of Baosteel warrants was 617.28%, and the transaction amount was 4.17 billion yuan more than the total transaction amount of Shenzhen Stock Exchange.
As a risk averse investor, it is understandable that social security funds have made such regulations on Baosteel's warrants in the past. Due to their sensitivity, most fund companies are also cautious about warrant investment, and need to continue to observe the market trend after the expansion of warrants.
"The main reason for the crazy speculation of hot money is the lack of warrants." A fund manager believes that the total number of warrants after expansion is expected to exceed 4 billion, and only the number of Vanke warrants will reach 2.14 billion. The possibility of price manipulation is low. The huge amount of capital attracted by Baosteel warrants is expected to be diverted, and the speculation will gradually cool down.
However, for the long-term investment value of warrants in the future, fund managers generally believe that with the expansion of the market, the warrant market will gradually become stable and rational, and become an arbitrage and hedging tool.
Most fund companies believe that the investment opportunity of warrants has arrived, which can at least be used as a tool for hedging risks, and can be combined with positive shares for hedging.
For example, holding a combination of positive shares and put warrants of WISCO shares at the same time can change the risk return characteristics of the original portfolio, or even carry out risk-free arbitrage.
If you are worried that the price of WISCO shares will continue to fall in the short term, you can consider buying the put warrants of WISCO shares. If the stock price falls, the increase of the put certificate will offset the loss of part of the decline of the stock price. If the stock price does not fall but rises, the profit earned from the shares can also offset the loss of the investment in the put certificate.
According to the news from the exchange, the work of issuing covered warrants by securities companies will also start in December, and the first batch of issuance will be Guotai Jun'an and Guosen Securities.
The expansion will help to curb the excessive speculation in the types of warrants, especially the covered warrants issued by securities companies, and will become an effective means to prevent abnormal fluctuations in the warrant market.
According to the analysis of insiders, under the condition of calming down the speculation, the Council of Social Security Fund is likely to liberalize the restrictions on investment warrants, otherwise, for social security managers, investment opportunities will be missed.
The old closed anguish
After the expansion, the fund's investment strategy will test the fund company's understanding of the value of warrants. If the market becomes more rational, the fund will take the initiative to purchase warrants.
However, contrary to the restriction on warrant investment by social security funds, some Closed end fund Fund managers have to face another problem.
Among the earliest closed-end funds, the investment scope of the fund is generally stipulated in the prospectus as follows: "Only national bonds and domestic public offerings and listings according to law shares ”。
For example, this is the case with Yuyang, the first fund under Bosera Fund, whose investment scope is only treasury bonds and stocks. The prospectus does not specify that other types of products can be invested.
Later, both closed-end and open-end funds stipulated that they could invest in other types of products. It was this seemingly insignificant remark that blocked the fund Yuyang from investing in warrants. It is reported that Bosera Fund still holds a negative attitude towards the fund Yuyang investment warrants.
Many fund companies such as Hua'an and Huaxia's closed-end funds also have similar embarrassing situations.
For the warrants passively obtained due to the share reform, the above funds can only be traded by selling or exercising at maturity, and cannot be actively bought.
It is reported that the companies concerned are looking for some alternative methods. However, considering the complexity of holding a general meeting of shareholders, it is difficult to solve the problem of warrant investment for these closed-end funds in the short term.
"The demonstration effect of Baosteel warrants is not only in the secondary market. For fund companies, the emergence of warrants means the expansion of product innovation space." Pan Jiang, research director of Tiantong Fund, said.
Pan Jiang believes that the innovation of capital guaranteed funds is most likely to benefit from warrants, and the functions of capital guaranteed funds can be improved.
"After the large-scale expansion of warrants, it will open the door to innovation in financial derivatives." Dr. Fu Qiang of Shenwan Paris Fund gives examples: principal guaranteed funds that achieve portfolio value maintenance and appreciation with warrants, warrant funds that take warrants as the main investment object, and stock based funds or hybrid funds that control portfolio risk with warrants.
Some fund companies have conducted research on warrant fund products. The introduction of warrants will lead to fundamental innovation in domestic fund products. Dr. Fu Qiang believes that "with warrants as the link, fund product innovation will gain new space and bring new experience to the market."
Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
| 
