|
□ Our reporter Hou Jiening
Recently, the stock market has been plagued by multiple factors, and has continued to decline. And the League of Nations Andersen, which is being issued, is growing with peace of mind fund Sun Wei, the fund manager, believed in a recent interview with a reporter that the current stock market is likely to be the closest to light and at a critical moment before dawn if viewed from the forward-looking perspective advocated by securities investment.
Sun Wei said that the launch of the pilot share trading reform is a good start to solve the share trading problem that has plagued the market for many years. However, due to the existence of short-term uncertainties such as the pilot program, to some extent, the funds of value stocks were diverted, which eventually led to the decline of some blue chips.
Sun Wei believes that despite the recent downturn in China's stock market, China's real economy has shown a good momentum of growth. From the macroeconomic situation, the investment growth slightly accelerated from January to April 2005, and the investment growth in the secondary industry rebounded. After the introduction of new regulatory policies, the growth rate of real estate, the leader of this round of overheated economy, began to decline, indicating that the growth rate of subsequent investment may gradually slow down. However, Sun Wei stressed that it is unlikely that the growth rate of real estate investment will decline significantly, because in addition to the regulated speculative demand, the real consumption demand of real estate is also strong. Effective regulation of the excessively prosperous real estate will reduce the demand and even the price of oil, steel, non-ferrous metals and other major raw materials, and further reveal the characteristics of the cyclical industry. However, the market has already begun to digest the expectation of the decline of the cyclical industry a year ago, and it is estimated that the space for the last blow should be limited.
In addition, there is the problem of RMB appreciation caused by the recent trade friction between China and the United States. If the RMB appreciates, it may exert some pressure on domestic export-oriented industries such as textile and clothing, machinery manufacturing and even port transportation. However, Sun Wei believes that the actual competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry accumulated over the years will not be offset by the slight appreciation of the RMB.
On the whole, Sun Wei believes that the adverse factors exposed in the macro fundamentals are the release of potential market risks, which will be conducive to the healthy development of the economy in the long run. Recently, the stock market continues to decline at a low level, which is more due to the rapid and somewhat excessive reaction of the sensitive market to the limited adverse factors in the weak market. From the perspective of securities investment funds, the current stage may be the closest to the bright dawn. Once the split share structure reform is widely accepted by the market, the securities market will usher in significant development.
As one of the first domestic fund managers to pursue absolute returns and seek long-term stable returns for investors, Sun Wei has been engaged in industry research and asset allocation for a long time, advocating value investment. She believes that the value of companies with sustainable growth potential and good qualifications will be more prominent in the future. They should be cautious about raw materials and general manufacturing for the time being, and can look for opportunities in the service industry, consumer goods, and infrastructure from a defensive perspective.
|
