The Fund Has More Market Voice; Baosteel Warrants Are Intended to Save Zhao and Wei

□ Zhang Gang of Southwest Securities

　　 Mainstream institutions have more voice

Baosteel Warrant（ information quotation forum ）On the first day of listing, it was closed to a ceiling of 1.263 yuan until the closing, with an increase of 83.58% on the first day. Since the exercise price of this warrant is 4.50 yuan, the exercise ratio is 1? 1. According to Baosteel（ information quotation forum

）According to the closing price of A-share, the theoretical price should be about 0.13 yuan, while the warrant closed at a ceiling price of 1.263 yuan, nearly 10 times higher than the theoretical price. As we all know, Baosteel and Changjiang Power, which will issue warrants（ information quotation forum ）These stocks are held by mainstream institutional investors such as funds. According to the semi annual report of the Fund, Changjiang Power and Baosteel ranked second and third among the stocks held by the Fund with the largest market value, respectively, with 45.49% and 44.53% of the shares held by the Fund.

In addition, the Interim Measures for the Administration of Warrants issued by the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges stipulates that "if the underlying securities of warrants applied for listing on the Exchange are stocks, the underlying stocks shall meet the following conditions on the date of application for listing: the market value of tradable shares in the latest 20 trading days shall not be less than 3 billion yuan; the cumulative turnover rate of stock transactions in the latest 60 trading days shall be more than 25%; and the capital stock of tradable shares shall not be less than 300 million shares; Other conditions stipulated by the Exchange. " According to the above conditions, fewer than 40 Shanghai and Shenzhen A-share companies meet this condition and are qualified to issue warrants. Most of them are Sinopec（ information quotation forum ）China Unicom（ information quotation forum ）Large cap stocks held by such funds.

This shows that mainstream institutions such as funds have more say in warrants. Since Baosteel warrants are issued in the form of distribution to shareholders of tradable shares, funds and other institutions apparently hold a large number of Baosteel warrants while holding a large number of Baosteel shares, which has advantages and initiative in secondary market operation. However, the "pull to the limit" completely deviating from the value investment philosophy is obviously different from the normal operation philosophy of the fund. So, how to treat this phenomenon?

　　 Or "Besiege Wei and save Zhao"

The fund's position portfolio in the second quarter showed that only Baosteel and Fuxing Technology were increased in the fund's holdings of steel stocks, and no new positions were established. Baosteel was overweight for five consecutive quarters, and Fuxing Technology was overweight for four consecutive quarters. In the second quarter of this year

From this statistical result, the Fund is pessimistic about the overall steel industry. As for the continuous increase of its shareholding in Baosteel, there are both reasons for its large-scale additional issuance to acquire group assets, and the future is the expectation of share reform. At present, the stock reform has ended. Under the condition of clear expectations, will the Fund make corresponding reduction based on the judgment of the prosperity of the steel industry? According to the closing price of Baosteel's warrants on Monday, only when the A-share price of Baosteel shares rises to 5.76 yuan can it match the warrant price. As the fund semi annual report showed that the number of funds holding Baosteel shares at the end of June had risen from 61 in the first quarter to 89. It was difficult for institutions to achieve the purpose of shipping by raising A-shares, while the increase of only 387.7 million Baosteel warrants could raise the expected price of Baosteel A-shares to realize the purpose of cash out. It can be called "Four Liang Pulls One Thousand Jin"! However, this is only a guess, and the fund and other institutions may have the intention of "saving the country". According to relevant laws and regulations, the Exchange will publish the list of holders of each warrant's negotiable quantity and the number of warrants that reach or exceed 5% of the negotiable quantity before the daily opening of the market, and the relevant information will be clear soon. These laws and regulations have a certain effect on curbing the speculative speculation of warrants.

　　 The market still has the practice of speculation

If the practice of speculation warrants, it is not the "follow the rules" of funds and other mainstream institutions. Then, such speculation of warrants is just the practice of market hot money continuing to play "speculation".

In June 1992, the mainland stock market had the first issuance of warrants, and in June 1996, the trading of warrants was suspended. During the period of speculation, there were both huge losses and sudden wealth. The current speculation is obviously a return to the old situation of market hot money. In the process of share reform this year, the first pilot projects were hyped, and the first warrants in the pilot projects will naturally be sought after by the market. After all, only more than 30 companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets have the conditions to issue warrants. Warrants are still "ethnic minorities" after all, and the characteristics of small shares and low prices are more likely to be favored by non mainstream funds.

Whether Baosteel warrants are fund cashouts or speculation of hot money in the market, speculation that deviates too much from the theoretical price is not suitable for ordinary investors to participate. Blind pursuit may be profitable in the short term, but ultimately it will not make ends meet.