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□ Our reporter Zhang Xiaofeng
Recently, Baosteel Warrants have attracted much attention（ information quotation forum ）It almost conquered the whole market with its vigorous and fierce soaring. As of yesterday, Baosteel's warrants had risen by 163% in three days, with a turnover rate of more than 400%. The fierceness of Baosteel's warrant makes people feel the madness of a decade away. So, who on earth is speculating Baosteel warrants? How will it be interpreted after the hype?
According to the statistics of the top ten heavy positions disclosed in the Fund's second quarter report, as of June 30, G Baosteel held by the Fund（ information quotation forum ）In total, it accounts for 44.52% of its outstanding shares. In addition to G Baosteel, which is held by major institutions in a decentralized manner, it is estimated that 70% of Baosteel's warrants will be held by institutional investors. However, some analysts believe that since institutions including funds were generally cautious in judging the trend of Baosteel's warrants before, except for some funds that were temporarily unable to participate in transactions due to contractual problems, many fund companies had strict regulations on the amount of funds involved in transactions, so the crazy performance of Baosteel's warrants should not have come from the hands of funds.
From the amplitude of Baosteel's warrants in the last three days, on the first day of listing, they were blocked by huge orders, up 83.58%, 44.34% on the 23rd and 26.67% on the 24th. Huge deals and changes of hands made Baosteel's warrants "go to heaven and earth". CITIC Securities（ information quotation forum ）Xu Jianqiang believes that Baosteel warrants are completely independent of the trend of its equity shares, and its price can no longer be measured by theoretical models. Since the theoretical value of Baosteel warrants is far lower than the current price, it is impossible for funds and other institutions to buy them. From the perspective of trading volume, most of the Baosteel warrants in the hands of funds have been sold. The large premium of Baosteel warrants constitutes the best reason for fund selling.
According to the latest public information of the Exchange, the trading list of Baosteel's warrants was topped by the trading team of limit up adventurers from Guosen Securities Shenzhen Hongling Middle Road Business Department, Xiangcai Securities Hangzhou Tianmushan Road Business Department, and China Merchants Securities Shenzhen Zhenhua Road Business Department. For example, two securities departments in Shenzhen and two in Shanghai, and one in Hangzhou were among the top five securities departments the day before yesterday, with the turnover ranging from 56 million yuan to 140 million yuan. These business departments, known as the "up and down daredevil", topped the list of Baosteel's warrant turnover that day. This is evident from the huge amount of speculative funds speculating on Baosteel warrants.
In terms of scale, Baosteel's warrants totaled 387.7 million shares. Based on yesterday's closing price of 1.808 yuan, the overall market value was only 700 million, which was equivalent to a small and medium-sized stock. The amount of capital needed for speculation was also small. Can you imagine what kind of products in the current market can combine the four factors of small price, low price, large rise and fall, and T+0? And these conditions are very suitable for speculation of speculative funds.
After all, the current regulation is different from that of 10 years ago. Xu Jianqiang believes that there is no stock that only goes up but doesn't go down. The same is true for warrants. The decline of Baosteel warrants will also be crazy. After a short period of speculation, its price will have a rational return.
Wu Qi of Beijing Securities believes that if Baosteel warrants rise further irrationally, it may violate the management's original intention of financial innovation, and it may also accelerate the introduction of measures to stabilize warrant prices, such as increasing warrant varieties and introducing market makers. From this perspective, with the further rise of warrant prices, in addition to the high risks inherent in it, There will be another policy risk. Since it is a kind of speculation based on price difference, continuous rise is a model; It is also a mode to continuously suppress and then significantly raise after collecting certain chips. The liquidity risk, policy risk and public opinion pressure faced by the latter will be greatly reduced. Therefore, if there is no necessary price stability mechanism and speculative funds are allowed to speculate, the latter will be the main form of Baosteel warrant speculation in the future.
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