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Reporter Wang Junxinping reports from Beijing
After the first day of listing, Baosteel Warrants（ information quotation forum ）Once again soared, the intraday increase was close to 45%, and the turnover rate reached an astonishing 331%. Then, the reporter investigated with some fund companies how they viewed the trend of Baosteel's warrants and how they operated in these two trading days as the funds that were previously regarded by the market as playing a leading role in the trading of Baosteel's warrants.
Taking the opportunity to reduce holdings became the mainstream
Some analysts pointed out that judging from the turnover rate of Baosteel Warrants yesterday, many funds may have reduced their positions or even cleared their positions. From the perspective of the market, there is no longer any sign that funds are trying to control the situation. This has also been more confirmed in the investigation of journalists.
A deputy general manager of a large fund company told the reporter that at present, the Baosteel warrants held by their funds are gradually reducing their holdings, and made it clear that they will not hold the warrants to exercise directly upon expiration, but will gradually sell them at a high level. He believes that Baosteel's warrants are "over speculation" at present and will fall miserably in the future. If they are allowed to sell, they will sell short warrants or issue covered warrants. Unfortunately, the policy does not allow this. He also said that their company's warrant investment plan has been formulated and is preparing to report to the CSRC for filing and announcement. They will participate in warrant investment very cautiously.
The investment director of a large fund company told the reporter that the warrants held by their funds, whether active or passive index funds, had been greatly reduced. He also said that he would not hold warrants to exercise upon expiration, but would sell them before expiration. At present, the trend of warrants is highly hyped, and the risk ratio is shares He reminded investors to be very careful when participating in investment and never be impulsive. He believes that the current valuation of Baosteel's regular shares is relatively reasonable, but the valuation of warrants is too high. In addition, their company's warrant investment plan has also been formulated and will be reported to the CSRC for filing and announcement in the near future.
Technical factors encourage speculation
The soaring of Baosteel warrants was triggered by the scarcity of the market, and the trading system of T+0 played a role in boosting it. T+0 allows buyers to short at any time. The funds that enter the market on the same day do not have to leave overnight. Therefore, many funds choose to continue to increase their positions after earning 5% or 10%. Anyway, if there is any trouble, they can control the risk by fleeing in time. Don't worry about the situation that T+1 often makes money in the morning and holds it in the afternoon. In addition, due to the special increase regulation of warrants, compared with the main board, it is almost as if there is no limit on the limit of the limit, and its volatility is greatly enhanced.
The fund manager of a large index fund believes that, from the perspective of valuation, the reasonable value of Baosteel warrants is between 0.6-0.8 yuan, which is well known. However, the current market trend is not dominated by fundamentals, but by some technical factors. For example, warrants themselves are characterized by large fluctuations; It is also the first warrant, and the market has the habit of speculation; And because it is a stock certificate, it is small in scale and easy to hype; There is no put mechanism, and the scale of warrants cannot increase with the increase in the share of warrant prices, which have become factors of short-term speculation.
The trend of warrants will be subject to the value of positive shares
A large fund investment department believes that the actual price of Baosteel warrants should be lower than the theoretical price due to changes in the valuation method of Baosteel's regular shares.
In the past, investors used the P/E pricing method more for the valuation of cyclical stocks such as Baosteel. Therefore, when the company's earnings rose, Baosteel's share price would rise significantly. However, since the beginning of macro-control in 2004, the price of Baosteel has dropped significantly. In the future, mainstream institutional investors will more often use the price to book ratio or long-term average price to earnings ratio to value Baosteel. Therefore, the volatility of its share price will more reflect the systematic risk of the market, and its volatility will be lower than the historical average volatility. Accordingly, the warrant price should be lower than the theoretical price.
They said that once the bubble of Baosteel warrants bursts, it is bound to accelerate the adjustment of the overall market, but it will also reduce the speculative atmosphere in the market, which may not be a good thing for the next stage of the market.
Judging from the trend of the past two days, the investment atmosphere for Baosteel warrants has reached a fever pitch. As the steel price in the fourth quarter may decrease, it will have a certain effect on the price of Baosteel's regular shares. The decline of both Baosteel's regular shares and warrants at the end of yesterday's market should be a reaction to this news.
The market hype is understandable
However, unlike most respondents, the chief investment officer of a joint venture fund said that he would not be surprised at any price of warrants, and that fair pricing was determined by the market rather than by any theoretical model. Judging from yesterday's trend, some short-term funds are coming out, but it is not inconceivable if the future warrants hit a new high again.
Another fund manager said frankly that the surge of Baosteel warrants should not be viewed too negatively. What China's securities market lacks is not value investment, but stable speculative power, which is the lubricant of the market. It does not matter if the warrant fluctuates greatly, so that it can attract the attention of the capital. After all, only things with large fluctuations can attract people to participate and have a profitable effect. He also pointed out that the stock price could not be all priced according to the theory, otherwise it would become a fixed bond. In that case, the market would have no vitality and no way out. For the warrants still held at present, he will choose to sell them gradually at a high level.
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Sina statement: The content of this article is purely the author's personal view, only for investors' reference, and does not constitute investment advice. Investors operate accordingly at their own risk.
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