Whether the growth of M2 declined or the simultaneous negative growth of social finance and M1 for the first time, a series of changes in key financial data in April attracted market discussion.
Financial data is "squeezing water" and "reducing puffiness" - the industry mostly gives vivid descriptions, which also reflects that various participants in the financial market are more objective and rational about data.
The simultaneous decrease in the growth rate of major indicators is the result of "taking the initiative". According to industry analysis, on the one hand, this is due to the optimization and adjustment of the value-added accounting of the financial industry, and the simultaneous "squeeze" of deposits and loans, resulting in a decline in the growth rate of money and credit; On the other hand, under the guidance of the regulation of "preventing idle arbitrage of funds", some enterprises and banks' blind expansion behavior was suppressed, which had a contractive impact on the total financial volume.
In fact, in the first quarter's monetary policy implementation report, the People's Bank of China has transmitted the signal of "the stock of money and credit is not low" and "to avoid capital precipitation and idle", proposing that "we should reasonably grasp the relationship between the two largest financing markets of bonds and credit, and guide the rational growth and balanced supply of credit". The central bank also pointed out the side effects of too much money and credit supply, that is, "inefficient enterprises occupy credit resources for a long time, it is difficult to clear up and survive the fittest, and low price vicious competition has dragged down the operation of efficient enterprises" and "idle arbitrage of enterprise funds".
At the high level of China's stock credit scale approaching 250 trillion yuan, it is not appropriate to "talk about heroes" with growth rate. At a time when economic development is more focused on high quality, monetary policy may be gradually weakening "quantity" and highlighting the real effectiveness of supporting the real economy.
However, various data "bottoming out" still shows the reality of insufficient effective demand. Zhong Zhengsheng, chief economist of Ping An Securities, said that at present, the change in the supply and demand pattern of real estate, the cooling of the local credit engine and the obvious decline in the demand for financing are the main reasons for the slowdown in financial data. However, it should also be noted that in this process, with the downward pressure on the economy, credit growth is more the result of China's economic operation, reflecting the problem of insufficient aggregate demand still deserves attention.
In response to the demand problem, the policy is expected to exert further efforts. Many insiders said that after the financial data "squeezed", it means that the financial support for the real economy is more solid and efficient, which also lays a solid foundation for the improvement of the effectiveness of the RRR and interest rate reduction.
"First of all, we need to stop the leakage of funds (curb the idle movement of funds), so that the RRR and interest rate reduction can achieve twice the result with half the effort." Zhang Yu, chief macro analyst of Huachuang Securities, said that when the probability margin of RRR and interest rate reduction rises, the great probability of exchange rate elasticity increases. Wang Yifeng, chief analyst of Everbright Securities financial industry, believes that the contradiction of insufficient financing demand may be the key problem in the next period. If the expansion of credit "quantity" is obviously weak, the "price" may need to be adjusted to stimulate credit demand and stabilize investment and consumption activities.
In terms of the time of implementation, the industry believes that the implementation conditions of interest rate reduction are gradually accumulating with the reduction of reserve ratio or the implementation of the issuance peak of ultra long term special government bonds and local bonds. However, constrained by the net interest margin of banks and the pace of interest rate reduction in the United States, the time of reduction of reserve ratio may be earlier than the rate reduction.
"The RRR reduction may precede the interest rate reduction, and the landing window may be in the middle of May at the earliest." Tao Chuan of Soochow Securities believes that the interest rate reduction often "affects the whole body at the first sight", and the next interest rate reduction of the central bank may be in line with the new round of bank deposit rate reduction, which may be later than the RRR reduction, and the landing opportunity or the subsequent periodic fall of the US dollar.
The latest news from the policy level also sent a signal about the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates. At the recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, it was proposed that we should flexibly use policy tools such as interest rates and deposit reserve ratio to increase support for the real economy and reduce the cost of comprehensive social financing.
(Editor in charge: Zhu He)
