A few days ago, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the Notice on Improving the Supply of Residential Land in 2024. The Notice requires that the transfer of new commercial residential land shall be suspended if the period of commercial residential land conversion exceeds 36 months.
The Ministry of Natural Resources has not released the list of cities with a decontamination cycle of more than 36 months. Since then, the third party agency has released a research report on the cycle of commercial residential deconstruction. The report pointed out that as of March, 41 of the 100 cities sampled by the agency had a deconstruction cycle of more than 36 months, most of which are third tier and fourth tier cities, including Shaoguan in Guangdong, Xining in Qinghai, Zhoushan in Zhejiang, Luoyang in Henan, Harbin in Heilongjiang, Jiashan in Zhejiang, Quanzhou in Fujian Tangshan and other cities in Hebei generally have a de urbanization cycle of more than three years. In addition, Fuzhou, Fujian, Wuhan, Hubei and other cities have a de industrialization cycle of more than 36 months.
Many cities concentrated on refuting rumors and denying that the deconvolution cycle was too high
Subsequently, several cities involved in the report successively refuted rumors.
On May 10, Huizhou Municipal Bureau of Housing and Urban Rural Development of Guangdong Province issued a rumor dispelling article saying that the data of 57.9 months of Huizhou commercial housing de transformation cycle was untrue. Huizhou did not give the current de conversion cycle, only said that "it is expected that the inventory of commercial residential buildings will continue to stabilize in the range of less than 30 months in the year."
In response to the news that "the cycle of commercial housing inventory reduction in Quanzhou and Jinjiang has exceeded 36 months", the Southeast Morning Post reported on May 8 that the reporter learned from Quanzhou Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau that as of the end of April, the cycle of commercial housing inventory reduction in Quanzhou was 12.32 months, and the cycle of commercial housing inventory reduction in Jinjiang under the jurisdiction of Quanzhou was 11.5 months. The above data are all within the reasonable cycle range of commodity housing inventory reduction.
On May 9, Heze Daily reported that, according to the latest official statistics of housing construction, capital regulation and other departments, the deconstruction cycle of Heze's own commercial residential buildings was far less than 36 months, and there was no "suspension of transfer".
On May 9, the Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau of Zhangzhou City, Fujian Province, issued a document saying that the media reported that the deconstruction cycle of commercial housing in Zhangzhou exceeded 36 months or the transfer of new residential land would be suspended. By the end of April 2024, the deconstruction cycle of new commercial residential buildings in Zhangzhou City (including counties and districts) will be 22.52 months, including 8.77 months in Xiangcheng District of the central urban area and 14.79 months in Longwen District, both within a reasonable range. The stock of residential buildings has been steadily digested, and the real estate market has achieved steady development.
In addition, according to the report of China Real Estate News, according to the Harbin Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau, as of the end of April, the deconstruction cycle of commercial residential buildings for sale in Harbin was less than 30 months, not exceeding the red line of 36 months. At present, the housing construction department of Harbin is studying and developing the real estate monitoring system, which will more accurately count the real estate sales, prices, stocks and other data of the city and various regions.
The Nanguo Morning Post, sponsored by Guangxi Daily, reported on May 9 that the data of Guangxi Zhongyuan Research Center, a professional real estate research institution, showed that as of the first quarter of this year, Nanning's commercial housing had been de transformed for about 25 months, with about 65500 units in stock and an area of 7.3 million square meters. The surging journalists have repeatedly called relevant departments of Nanning Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau in Guangxi, but they have not been connected.
According to the report of Nanfang Plus on May 6, the relevant person in charge of Shaoguan Real Estate Trading Center sent a statement to Nanfang+reporters. According to the statistics of the center, the latest data by the end of April this year showed that the inventory area of commercial residential buildings in Shaoguan was about 3.57 million square meters, and the decontamination period was about 23.8 months.
According to the news of Fuzhou News Network on May 7, the relevant responsible person of Fuzhou Real Estate Association said that as of April 2024, the inventory of commercial residential buildings in Fuzhou would be 8.4134 million square meters, with a decontamination period of 18.42 months; Among them, the inventory of commercial residential buildings in the five urban areas is 1.8307 million square meters, and the decontamination cycle is 10.47 months. The inventory is basically reasonable.
In addition, the reporter called Wuhan Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau, and the staff said that the cycle of commercial residential housing in Wuhan is not so high, but it is not convenient to disclose the specific number of months.
The land supply has been implemented for 7 years according to the disposal cycle
A few days ago, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in the Supply of Residential Land in 2024, pointing out that for cities with high inventory pressure and a decontamination cycle of more than 36 months, the transfer of new commercial residential land should be suspended, and efforts should be made to revitalize the stock and resolutely curb the irrational growth of the stock of land.
For cities with a decontamination period of 18 months to 36 months, the upper limit of newly transferred commercial residential land should be dynamically determined according to the principle of "how much to revitalize and how much to supply" and the area of stock commercial residential land (including completion and recovery) to ensure that the stock does not increase and gradually revitalize and digest.
It is not the first time that cities with a deconstruction period of more than 36 months should suspend the transfer of new commercial residential land.
As early as 2017, the Ministry of Housing and Urban Rural Development and the Ministry of Land and Resources issued the Notice on Strengthening the Management and Regulation of Recent Housing and Land Supply, which requires that "all regions should adjust the scale, structure and timing of residential land supply in a timely manner according to the digestion cycle of commercial housing inventory, and stop land supply for those whose digestion cycle is more than 36 months; The land supply shall be reduced for the 36~18 months ".
In 2019, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued a further notice, referring to "the adjustment and determination of the 'five categories' of residential land supply in 2019 (significant increase, increase, level, appropriate reduction, reduction, and even suspension) control objectives. Among them, if the digestion period is more than 36 months, the land supply should be stopped; if the digestion period is 36 to 18 months, the land supply should be appropriately reduced; if the digestion period is 18 to 12 months, the land supply level should be maintained; For 12-6 months, land supply shall be increased; For those less than 6 months, the land supply should be significantly increased and accelerated ".
In December 2022, the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the Notice on Further Regulating the Information Disclosure of Residential Land Supply, which, on the one hand, emphasizes the overall arrangement of the total amount, structure and layout of residential land supply in accordance with the principle of "people determine houses and houses determine land"; on the other hand, The supply scale of commercial housing land shall be determined in combination with the average annual completed transaction volume of residential land in the past three years and the corresponding residential building area, the commercial housing decontamination cycle, the land auction rate, market demand, etc. For cities with the area of the supplied and uncompleted residential land more than 5 times the average completed transaction volume in the past three years, it is clear that the planned scale shall be strictly reduced until the land supply is suspended.
Why did it attract attention this time? Some insiders said that the indicator of commercial housing de transformation cycle is relatively professional, and ordinary people may not know the meaning of the data, and it is normal not to pay attention to it; In fact, the third party institutions will issue inventory reports of the same kind every year, but the report released this time has seen a large number of cities involved in "land supply suspension", which immediately triggered the local government to refute rumors, and the probability of public attention has increased significantly.
Statistical caliber is not uniform
What is the de transformation cycle and why does it affect the urban land supply plan? Who decides the de transformation cycle?
The de conversion cycle of commercial residential buildings generally refers to the de conversion cycle of the inventory of new commercial residential buildings. The calculation method is: the inventory of new commercial residential buildings/the average sales volume of new commercial residential buildings within a certain period. The calculation criteria of the above institutions are: inventory reduction cycle=inventory area of new commercial residential buildings at the end of the month/average transaction area of new commercial residential buildings in the last six months.
Yan Yuejin, research director of E-House Research Institute, said that the problem of data on the de transformation cycle of some cities in the near future has been discussed by the citizens. Here we will make relevant analysis, which will help guide expectations and clarify market trends.
Yan Yuejin explained that there are differences between institutional data and official data, which are mainly related to data caliber, collection time, processing method, etc. In terms of data collection method, research institutions will calculate inventory based on monthly supply and demand data. At the same time, there are different forms of market transaction data such as "initialing", "online signing" and "check-out", which will also affect the statistical value of monthly data at a certain time point. Both will eventually affect the calculation of the inventory reduction cycle.
Is the official data consistent?
Pengpai News called nearly 20 urban housing construction or natural resources departments. The staff of relevant business departments of Heze, Harbin, Tangshan and other housing construction bureaus said that the data were confidential or the departments did not have relevant data, and the specific calculation caliber was unclear. In addition, the staff of Changzhou Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau said that there are many statistical caliber of the data. Some cities in Guangdong and Fujian Province explained to the reporter the calculation logic of commercial housing in their provinces.
Taking Quanzhou as an example, Pengpai News first called the Natural Resources and Planning Bureau of Quanzhou, and the staff of the bureau said that the statistics of the data of the de transformation cycle is the responsibility of the housing and construction department, which will release it every month. After the public opinion came out, the bureau checked with the housing and construction department that the deconstruction cycle of the commercial residential buildings of the same level in Quanzhou City was less than 12 months, and the deconstruction cycle of Quanzhou City was less than 36 months. At the same time, the staff member said that the transfer work would be suspended if the de transformation period exceeded 36 months, "the system could not be entered, and we tried the system without problems". At the same time, the staff member said that because the affordable housing could not be pre-sale, the calculation criteria of Quanzhou's de industrialization cycle did not involve affordable housing.
Later, the surging news called Quanzhou Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau, and the relevant staff of the bureau said that the calculation criteria of Quanzhou City was the inventory of pure commercial residential buildings/average sales volume in the past 36 months. In recent years, Fujian Province has used this caliber for calculation and reporting.
A staff member of the Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau of a city in Guangdong Province said that the (statistical) table issued by the Housing and Urban Rural Development Department of Guangdong Province has a formula, which is the inventory of commercial residential buildings/average monthly sales area in the past 12 months.
The staff member said that the sales volume is based on the online signed data, while the inventory is the data that is not online signed. However, the province has not clearly defined the inventory data. In fact, there are two dimensions. One is that the inventory does not cover affordable housing, etc., and housing in the inventory involving leasing and other properties can not be counted in the inventory, which depends on the grasp of local people. The staff member said that the data of affordable housing does affect the de transformation cycle, and the types of affordable housing vary from place to place. Some of them can be signed online. Whether to include affordable housing or not only requires the consistency of inventory data and monthly average sales data.
As for how to calculate the de conversion cycle, Pengpai contacted the Ministry of Natural Resources. As of press release, the Ministry of Natural Resources had no feedback.
(Editor in charge: Zhu He)