In the second half of the year, Dacheng Fund released its macro strategy report for the second half of 2023. The report is titled "rebalancing in the shift period", which means that the equity market is at a historical low range at the emergence stage, and both the absolute position and the horizontal comparison of large categories of assets have a high cost performance ratio. In the direction, growth stocks that are relatively optimistic about pro cyclical growth stocks, and those whose stock prices have been fully adjusted and whose fundamentals have improved marginally have fallen sharply; From a medium - and long-term perspective, we are optimistic about consumer goods in the direction of consumption sinking.
In the first half of the year, the domestic economic recovery was relatively uneven, but many data showed that it was in the bottoming period during the process, so the short cycle dimension should not be more pessimistic; The policy in the first half of the year has the characteristics of giving consideration to both long-term and short-term issues and providing strong support. Against this background, the third quarter's economic quarter on quarter ratio may improve, and the macroeconomic trend will be better.
Reviewing in the quarterly dimension, the economic trend in the first half of the year rose first and then fell. The impulsive release of the backlog of demand in the first quarter combined with the high expectations of the market led to a higher economy; In the second quarter, the real enterprises expected to fall back, and the rapid and active destocking caused the price drop. In the short term, the economic downturn in the second quarter has accumulated some rebound potential, and the third quarter may improve month on month.
The policy mix in the first half of the year reflected the characteristics of giving consideration to both the long term and short term and providing strong support. Specifically, monetary policy focuses on strengthening counter cyclical adjustment and preventing the risk of large fluctuations of exchange rate; The fiscal policy is set in a positive tone; Financial supervision focuses on such topics as "resolving risks in key areas" and "solving problems through reform and innovation".
In the first half of the year, the economic environment "weak macro" and the capital stock game environment together constituted the core logic of the market. The two themes of TMT and "China Special Evaluation" were also consistent with the different stages of "weak macro". In the market environment in the second half of the year, the more predictable changes are mainly the weak recovery of the bottom of earnings, wide currency and stable credit, and improvement of risk appetite. Although the environmental change is positive, the elasticity of the price at the numerator end is still small, so more attention needs to be paid to the logic of improving the valuation at the denominator end.
Specifically, as the "weak macro" environment may be broken, the price performance ratio of more powerful theme investment in the first half of the year is relatively lower, and more optimistic about pro cyclical growth stocks, such as semiconductor, consumer electronics, automobile, new energy, and the sub sectors of pattern optimization as well as Hang Seng Technology; Also optimistic about the sharp decline of growth stocks with fully adjusted share prices and improved fundamental margin, such as medicine, defense and military industry.
At the same time, an important economic phenomenon in a longer cycle is the differentiation of residents' balance sheets, which also has an impact on group consumption behavior. Taking this as a starting point, we can focus on a part of the strongly related sectors of the total volume, find the source of demand increment that is currently becoming an important part of China's consumer market, and focus on the relevant sub sectors in the trend of consumption sinking, such as textiles and clothing, leisure snacks, beverages and dairy products.
Go far and think ahead, and never change your original mind. As one of the first "Top Ten" fund management companies approved to be established in China, Dacheng Fund has adhered to value investment, long-term investment and responsible investment for 24 years, actively grasped the value of core assets, continued to build an investment research team with research as the core, and established an investment research integration system of "investment led research and research driven investment".
The long-term platform construction and talent strategy also make the equity performance of Dacheng Fund outstanding for a long time. According to the data of Haitong Securities, Dacheng Fund's performance in the past seven years, five years and three years respectively ranks in the top 7% (6/98), 10% (11/116) and top 4% (5/138) of the industry. Among similar medium-sized equity fund companies, Dacheng Fund ranked first for three consecutive years, with a yield of 109.18% in the past five years and 240.96% in the past ten years.
Risk tip: The fund has risks, so investment should be cautious. The Fund Manager undertakes to manage and use the Fund assets in accordance with the principles of due diligence, honesty, prudence and diligence, but does not guarantee that the Fund will be profitable or the minimum return. The past performance of the Fund and its net value do not predict its future performance, nor does the performance of other funds managed by the Fund Manager constitute a guarantee for the performance of the Fund. The Fund Manager reminds investors of the principle of "buyer's responsibility" for fund investment. After making investment decisions, investors should bear the investment risks caused by changes in the operation status of the fund and the net value of the fund. Please carefully read the Fund Contract, Prospectus and other documents of the Fund, understand the risk return characteristics of the Fund, judge whether the Fund is suitable for the risk tolerance of investors according to their own investment purpose, investment period, investment experience, asset status, etc., and purchase the Fund according to their own risk tolerance.
Data source: Haitong Securities "Ranking List of Equity and Fixed Income Assets of Fund Companies", as of June 30, 2023.
Note 1: The absolute return of the fund management company refers to the growth rate of the net value of the active fund managed by the fund company, which is weighted by the scale of assets under management during the period. The scale of assets under management during the period is simply averaged according to the available period scale. It is required that the stock hybrid fund that meets the conditions for ranking in the ranking list shall be established for 15 months. The fund companies participating in the ranking are asset managers with stock hybrid funds that have been established for more than 15 months. In order to enhance comparability, three months after the establishment of stock hybrid funds belong to the position building period, during which the growth rate of net worth is not included in the calculation range.
Note 2: Active equity funds include active equity open-ended funds, strong equity hybrid funds, sci-tech innovation strong equity hybrid funds, partial equity hybrid funds, balanced hybrid funds, flexible hybrid funds, flexible strategy hybrid funds and active hybrid closed-end funds, excluding index funds, life cycle hybrid funds, partial debt hybrid funds, Hong Kong stock flexible strategy hybrid funds, Hong Kong stock partial equity hybrid funds Hong Kong strong stock hybrid and QDII funds.
Note 3: Division of large, medium and small companies: according to the average scale of active equity (active fixed income) of Haitong Securities Ranking List in recent one year, and according to the scale of fund companies from large to small, fund companies whose cumulative average scale of active equity (active fixed income) accounts for 50% of the total market scale of active equity (active fixed income) are classified as large companies, Between 50% and 70% are classified as medium-sized companies, and the rest are small companies. Small companies also include companies whose products have the longest duration and have been established for less than one year.
