At present, the overall sentiment of the commodity market is too much, and the non-ferrous metals are rising as a whole under the leadership of the breakthrough of precious metals. On May 21, affected by the supply event of overseas manufacturers, the opening of alumina market rose rapidly, hitting the limit and hitting a new high since listing. Since then, the market has fallen back, but still remains at a high level.
In this regard, Liu Dongbo, an analyst of SDIC Andersen Futures, said that Rio Tinto's two alumina plants in Australia have a capacity of 7.2 million tons and an operating capacity of 6 million tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is about 1.3 million tons, the self consumption is about 2.5 million tons, and the export volume is more than 3 million tons, which has a great impact on overseas supply, but the actual impact still needs to continue to pay attention.
In fact, since the second quarter, the core driving force for the rise of alumina is the supply limitation of domestic minerals and the uncertainty of recovery.
Mei Yiwen, non-ferrous analyst of Nanhua Futures, said that the main logic that will affect the price of alumina in the future may still revolve around the supply side.
The reporter observed that in the near future, the aluminum oxide futures have strong linkage with Shanghai Aluminum and the freight index (European line) futures. In this regard, Liu Dongbo explained that, as a link of the aluminum industry chain, aluminum oxide futures has maintained a high correlation with Shanghai Aluminum Futures since its listing. The recent strengthening of aluminum prices has a certain driving effect on aluminum oxide futures prices, and the upstream and downstream relationships conform to the industrial linkage mechanism.
"Since the conflict between Palestine and Israel, the relevance of alumina futures and containerization index (European line) futures has become stronger. In terms of actual impact, the European line transport will not have a significant and substantial impact on the transport of major bauxite source countries such as Guinea, but more from the market's concern about the rise of sea freight and the order of the global supply chain." Liu Dongbo said.
Expectations of supply margin easing exist in the long term
Sun Kuangwen, chief analyst of nonferrous metals at Xinhu Futures Research Institute, said that the price limit touching on the market was more reflected in the extreme reaction of rising emotions to the news, and then the price fell back but remained at a high level, which to some extent reflected that the market was still worried about the supply side disturbance.
"The shortage of bauxite has constantly formed the expectation gap at the supply end, which has become the main driving force supporting the upward movement of alumina. This year's year-on-year growth of alumina production is lower than that of electrolytic aluminum, and it is difficult to increase the operating capacity under high profit conditions." Liu Dongbo said that last year, mines in Shanxi, Henan and other places stopped production on a large scale. At present, the recovery time of domestic mines is far behind expectations, From January to April, the domestic bauxite output was 17.83 million tons, down 19% year on year.
The enterprise seeks to replace imported bauxite, but due to project progress, barge shortage and other factors, the increase of shipment in Guinea is relatively slow. From January to April, the import of bauxite was 50.57 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, that is, 3.03 million tons, which was less than expected. "In the short term, tight ore supply still supports prices," said Liu Dongbo.
"However, from the perspective of the spot market, there is no obvious gap in the supply side in the near future. In fact, the output has increased steadily, but the growth rate is limited." Sun Kuangwen said that after the delivery last week, some warehouse receipts also entered circulation, the spot supply has increased to a certain extent, and the supply and demand are in a tight balance.
In Mei Yiwen's view, the current pattern of alumina is limited supply at the mine end, and the resumption of production has greater uncertainty. "The production profit of aluminum oxide is growing, but it is limited to the inability to scale up at the mine end. At the same time, the high performance price ratio of panel sales aggravates the shortage of spot goods. In addition, the downstream electrolytic aluminum is also in a state of accelerated resumption of production. More than 95% of the downstream demand of aluminum oxide flows to the electrolytic aluminum link. The production of electrolytic aluminum is growing steadily, and the demand side is rigid." Mei Yiwen said that based on this, It is reasonable to gain profits or even increase profits in the alumina sector, but considering the height of the recent rise in alumina futures prices, she believes that there is no lack of emotional premium.
Looking forward to the future, Mei Yiwen believes that the change of the mine end is still the most important fundamental variable, in which the recovery progress and volume of bauxite in Shanxi and Henan are the focus of the market. In addition, it should be noted that the impact of the current commodity market on the macro level is increasing, and the changes in the overall market sentiment also have a greater impact on whether the price of alumina can return to the fundamentals.
In Liu Dongbo's view, short-term alumina futures may maintain a high level, but there is an expectation of supply margin easing in the long term.
Sun Kuangwen believes that the supply side market needs to pay attention to whether the domestic bauxite supply can be effectively released, especially the ore output in Shanxi and Henan. Once the bauxite supply recovers rapidly, the alumina output will probably increase significantly. From the consumer side, as the resumption of production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is nearing completion, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum will tend to be stable, and the consumption of aluminum oxide will also be difficult to further increase. The supply may tend to be loose, or even return to excess. At that time, the spot price of aluminum oxide will fall under pressure.
However, the supply side is still uncertain, especially the domestic mine supply is restricted by multiple factors such as safety supervision and environmental protection. In addition, it is also worth paying attention to whether there will be disturbances such as insufficient natural gas supply at the alumina production end.
Liu Dongbo said that at present, the ratio of aluminum oxide and electrolytic aluminum has reached 20%, which is a high level in recent years. The market needs to pay attention to the strength of spot rising, and the space above futures may be suppressed.
In Sun Kuangwen's view, although the spot price is high and firm, it also lacks the momentum of progress and rise. "Considering that the current average spot price is around 3730 yuan/ton, and the premium of futures over spot price is more than 300 yuan/ton, there is a large arbitrage space." Sun Kuangwen said that after the market returns to rationality in the later period, the futures price will fall back to a reasonable level.
