Our reporter Liu Qi
On June 14, the financial statistics and social financing data of May 2024 released by the People's Bank of China (hereinafter referred to as the "Central Bank") showed that RMB loans increased by 11.14 trillion yuan in the first five months of this year; The increase in the scale of social financing has totaled 14.8 trillion yuan. At the end of May, the balance of broad money (M2) was 301.85 trillion yuan, up 7% year on year.
Specifically, in May, RMB loans increased by 950 billion yuan that month, 410 billion yuan less than the previous year; The social finance increased by 2.07 trillion yuan, an increase of 510 billion yuan year on year.
Wen Bin, the chief economist of Minsheng, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that although the increase of new credit and money supply is not large on the surface, it is more efficient and meets the requirements of high-quality development. Subsequently, with the timely strengthening of monetary policy, the release of fiscal policy effect, and the use of the old for new policy to support large consumption of real estate and consumer goods, the demand side is expected to gradually improve, and the credit increment will increase accordingly.
Year on year decrease in new credit
But credit is more efficient
According to central bank data, RMB loans increased by 11.14 trillion yuan in the first five months of this year. At the end of May, the balance of RMB loans was 248.73 trillion yuan, up 9.3% year on year. In May, RMB loans increased by 950 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 410 billion yuan and a month on month increase of 220 billion yuan.
By sector, household loans increased by 75.7 billion yuan in May, including 24.3 billion yuan in short-term loans and 51.4 billion yuan in medium and long-term loans; Loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 740 billion yuan, of which short-term loans decreased by 120 billion yuan, medium and long-term loans increased by 500 billion yuan, and bill financing increased by 357.2 billion yuan; Loans from non banking financial institutions increased by 36.3 billion yuan.
Mingming, the chief economist of CITIC Securities, told the Securities Daily that the year-on-year decline of new credit in May was due to the weak demand for entity financing on the one hand and the "anti spin" of finance on the other. It is worth noting that the scale of bill financing was relatively high in May. Although there was some "impulse" factor, we should also dialectically look at the change in the proportion of bill financing in the total amount of credit, face up to the important role of bills in the financing of small and micro enterprises, and expect that the scale and proportion of bill financing will have room for improvement in the future.
Wen Bin believes that the new credit increased month on month in May. Although it decreased year on year, the credit quality was higher. At present, financial institutions are gradually abandoning the "scale complex" to promote more matching between credit supply and demand; Manual interest compensation and arbitrage of idle funds are prohibited, and enterprise credit repayment and non renewal increase; The effective financing demand of superimposed entities is still insufficient, especially in the traditional industries and personal fields. The project reserves have decreased, the pressure of early repayment has risen, and the credit supply intensity has returned to the historical average level in the same period. In addition, some enterprises increased their efforts to issue bonds to replace loans and mid year bill financing faced pressure of centralized maturity, which also disturbed the new credit in May.
"From a sectoral perspective, corporate loans were relatively stable in May, corporate medium and long term loans were still an important driving force, retail loans continued to be weak, and the bill impulse was correspondingly increased." Wen Bin said that the credit of the residential end improved in May, but it was still weak on the whole, and the transmission from production to consumption needs to be accelerated and unblocked. In the future, driven by the combination of low interest rate environment and policies such as stabilizing real estate and promoting consumption, residents' consumption and credit tendency may continue to repair steadily, but the strength and sustainability are still mainly affected by long-term variables such as employment and income.
Growth rate or presentation of social finance in the year
The shock trend of rising first and then falling
According to the data of the Central Bank, preliminary statistics show that the increase in social financing scale in the first five months of 2024 accumulatively amounts to 14.8 trillion yuan, 2.52 trillion yuan less than the same period of the previous year; By the end of May 2024, the stock of social financing scale was RMB 391.93 trillion, up 8.4% year on year. From the perspective of May, the new social finance in that month was 2.07 trillion yuan, an increase of 510 billion yuan year on year, and a substantial increase of 2.14 trillion yuan month on month.
"On a year-on-year basis, government bond and corporate bond financing are the main driving factors; on a link basis, government bond financing, on balance sheet credit and undiscounted bank acceptance bills are the main driving forces, The structure of social financing scale has been continuously optimized. The growth rate of social finance in the year may show a shock trend of first rising and then falling, along with the continued increase in the volume of special bonds, the continued issuance of ultra long term special bonds, and the stabilization of on balance sheet loans.
In addition, according to the data of the Central Bank, the M2 balance at the end of May was 301.85 trillion yuan, up 7% year on year. The balance of narrow money (M1) was 64.68 trillion yuan, down 4.2% year on year. The balance of currency in circulation (M0) was 11.71 trillion yuan, up 11.7% year on year. The net cash released in the first five months was 361.8 billion yuan.
It is clearly believed that there are several reasons for the year-on-year decline of M1 in May: First, the statistical caliber of M1 does not include funds such as resident demand deposits, which makes M1 more sensitive to changes in enterprise demand deposits, and its reference significance is weakened; Second, the impact of the call to stop deposit "manual interest compensation" can be seen from the fact that the deposit of residents and enterprises in the same month was nearly 800 billion yuan less than the same period last year, while the deposit of non bank deposits was 840 billion yuan more; Third, the current expectations of enterprises are weak, and the activation of funds is low.
In Wen Bin's view, since May, the impact of the "manual interest supplement" of the call to stop deposits has been still fermenting. In addition to the continued transfer of resident deposits to non-bank deposits under the advantage of price difference, some corporate deposits also have the tendency of "disintermediation". With the incremental credit expansion from on balance sheet to off balance sheet, the corresponding currency derivative rhythm slows down, and M2 growth continues to be under pressure; In May, the acceleration of government bond issuance and centralized tax payment pushed up financial deposits, which also dragged down M2. At the same time, as the interest payment rate of corporate "quasi demand" deposits such as agreements and notices has declined significantly, the false increase in the balance sheet of the banking system is gradually dropping, and this process has also greatly disturbed the growth of M1.
Wen Bin further said that although some funds were no longer included in M2 statistics after they were diverted from deposits to wealth management, there was no fundamental change in the capital supply of the real economy. At present, financial support for the real economy is more solid and efficient.
