Our reporter Yin Gaofeng He Wangjuan
Recently, the metal price in the futures market has set off a frenzy, especially the silver price, which has reached a new high in the past 11 years, with an astonishing increase this year. Wind information data shows that as of May 22, silver in SHFE has increased by 39.13% this year to 8343 yuan/kg. In the spot market, London silver now stands at $31/ounce, with an increase of more than 30% this year, hitting a new high since 2013.
With the rising price of silver, as the second largest cost of photovoltaic cells after silicon wafers, the rising price of silver paste has also brought challenges to the photovoltaic industry. The rising price of silver makes the photovoltaic industry urgently need to "reduce silver".
In this context, the reporter of Securities Daily noticed that at present, silver reduction and de silver are becoming an important direction of technology research and development in the photovoltaic industry, and the related OBB (no main grid technology), silver coated copper, electroplating copper and other "silver reduction" technology routes are accelerating, and have entered the mass production stage.
Significant increase in silver consumption for photovoltaic
Photovoltaic silver has become the main source of silver industry demand growth in recent years. According to the data of the World Silver Institute (TSI), in 2022 and 2023, photovoltaic silver consumption will be 3672 tons and 6017 tons, respectively. In 2023, the demand will increase by nearly 64%, making up for the shrinking of silver consumption in other industrial fields.
The market institutions predict that under the background of the continuous growth of photovoltaic installed capacity, the demand of silver paste market will also continue to expand. In 2024, the silver consumption of photovoltaic will rise to 7217 tons, up 20% year on year.
It is understood that photovoltaic silver paste is one of the core auxiliary materials in the solar cell link. The two sides of the battery need silver paste generated by high-purity silver powder. Through the screen printing process, the conductive performance is obtained. Silver paste accounts for the highest proportion of non silicon costs in the battery link.
The reporter of Securities Daily learned from photovoltaic enterprises that the cost of silver paste accounts for about 12% of the cost of photovoltaic cells, which is the second largest cost of photovoltaic cells after silicon chips. After excluding the cost of silicon chips, the cost of silver paste accounts for about 35% of the non silicon cost of photovoltaic cells.
From the perspective of specific technical routes, the silver consumption of different technical routes is also different. The cost of photovoltaic silver paste of P-type battery accounts for 10% to 11%, while the silver consumption of N-type battery is higher, accounting for 16% to 25%.
A person from a photovoltaic enterprise told the Securities Daily that the consumption of silver paste by TOPCon and HJT is significantly higher than that of PERC batteries. With the current iteration of photovoltaic high-efficiency batteries from P type to N type (TOPCon, HJT, etc.), the demand for silver paste has doubled. Among them, the consumption of silver paste per TOPCon battery has increased by nearly 80%, and the consumption of silver paste per HJT battery has nearly doubled. It is expected that with the proportion of N-type batteries gradually increasing, the silver consumption will further increase in the future.
PV industry promotes cost reduction and efficiency increase
As for the price trend of silver in the future, the market generally expects that it will be in an upward phase for a long time driven by tight supply and demand and investment attributes.
"In the situation of supply shortage, demand in photovoltaic, electronics and other fields will also support silver prices." Wang Xu, senior investment adviser of Jufeng Investment Advisory, told reporters that silver prices are expected to continue to rise in the future.
Wang Tieshan, director of the Industrial Development and Investment Research Center of Xi'an University of Engineering, said in an interview with the Securities Daily that, from the current situation, as the prices of most links in the industrial chain are relatively low, as long as silver supply is not in short supply, the price rise of silver paste will not affect the supply of photovoltaic industry, or have little impact. At the same time, the price of PV modules is close to the cost line. Even if the price rise of silver paste is conducted, the price rise of modules has little impact on the enthusiasm of downstream installation.
But in Wang Tieshan's view, when the price of the industrial chain returns to rationality, the rise of silver price will bring some cost pressure to the photovoltaic industry.
Chen Xingwen, chief investment executive of Heizaki Capital, said that the industrial demand for silver, especially its application in the photovoltaic industry, may be affected by the price rise. If silver prices continue to rise, it may lead the photovoltaic industry to seek alternative materials.
Cost reduction and efficiency increase has always been the main theme of the photovoltaic industry. According to the reporter of Securities Daily, in recent years, the photovoltaic industry has been actively studying the technical path to get rid of dependence on precious metal materials, and many listed companies are also accelerating the research and development of "silver reduction" technology.
For example, at the performance presentation meeting, Jinko Energy said, "This year, the company has completed all the import of laser assisted sintering technology, and 0BB technology has completed the preliminary test, which can significantly increase power and reduce costs, and will gradually import in accordance with the company's plan". The company expects that by the end of this year, through the combined use of 0BB technology and special screen technology, the energy consumption of 182mm square piece silver will be reduced from about 90mg/piece to about 80mg/piece. At the same time, the company is also simultaneously verifying the technology of silver coated copper and copper electroplating, which is expected to be applied to production in the next two years.
On March 14, Autoway announced that the company's 0BB technology has broken through the technical bottleneck on TOPCon, reducing the silver consumption of a single piece by more than 10%, and has now reached the mass production conditions of TOPCon 0BB welding process. In addition, as early as August 2023, Tongwei announced that the THC module had broken the record four times in half a year, and said that it was the first in the industry to adopt the copper interconnection (THL) technology, stepping into the "silver free" era.
In the view of the industry, at present, Longji Lvneng and Aixu's BC batteries will also accelerate the promotion of de banking. Shen Wenzhong, director of the Solar Energy Research Institute of Shanghai Jiaotong University, said, BC technology is made on P-type silicon chip. The biggest development prospect is that aluminum paste can replace silver paste in the future. The aluminum on the back can form a local aluminum back field with P-type silicon chip. Using screen printing aluminum paste can realize the basis of electrode. In the future, using full aluminum screen printing to make BC battery structure is the best in terms of cost performance.
"At present, BC structure batteries using N-type silicon chips mainly use screen printed silver paste. In fact, the tunnel interface formed by TOPCon high doping can also use screen printed aluminum paste. Of course, another option is copper electroplating technology. Although both copper and aluminum are silver free technologies, there is still a big difference in the cost of metallization." Shen Wenzhong said.
