Reporter Sun Wei
A few days ago, the National Bureau of Statistics released the price changes of commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium-sized cities in April 2024. In April, the real estate market continued to adjust. In 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales price of commercial residential buildings in all lines of cities increased month on month and year-on-year. Among them, there were 6 cities where the price of new houses rose month on month, 5 less than that in March, led by Shanghai; There were 64 cities with a month on month decline, 7 more than in March.
On a month on month basis, in April, the sales price of new commercial residential buildings in first tier cities fell 0.6% month on month, 0.5 percentage point more than that in March. Among them, Beijing, Guangzhou and Shenzhen declined 0.7%, 1.3% and 1.0% respectively, while Shanghai rose 0.3%. 2、 The sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in third tier cities decreased by 0.5% and 0.6% month on month, respectively, with a decrease of 0.2 percentage points. The selling price of second-hand residential buildings in the first tier cities fell 1.1% month on month, 0.4 percentage points higher, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen falling 1.6%, 0.8%, 1.4% and 0.7% respectively. 2、 The selling price of second-hand residential buildings in third tier cities decreased by 0.9% month on month, with a decrease of 0.4 percentage points.
58 Zhang Bo, president of Anjuke Research Institute, said to reporters: "From the number of new houses opened in 65 cities monitored on Anjuke Online, the month on month decline was 9%, with the largest decline in first tier cities, about 38% month on month, and the total number of new house projects on sale slightly increased by 0.1% month on month." Zhang Bo further analyzed that Tianjin, Shanghai, and Xi'an rose 0.1%, 0.3% 0.1%, new houses above 144 square meters in Shanghai rose 0.7% month on month, and new houses below 90 square meters in Xi'an rose 0.3% month on month. The massive listing of luxury houses in the center of Shanghai has a very obvious impact on the market, which is also the reason why Shanghai is the only first tier city where the price of new houses has risen month on month. In Xi'an, the attraction to the surrounding areas has improved, so the prices of small and medium-sized households are more firm.
Li Yujia, the chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, pointed out that in April, the price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 cities across the country fell 0.6% month on month, falling for 11 consecutive months, and hitting the largest month on month decline in recent years, doubling the decline from March, expanding by 0.3 percentage points. At the same time, in April, the sales of new houses of the top 100 real estate enterprises and 100 cities both recorded the largest year-on-year decline in recent years. Among them, the performance of the top 100 real estate enterprises in April fell 12.9% month on month and 44.9% year on year; One hundred cities fell 17% month on month and 43% year on year. " Li Yujia believes that the decline in the price of new houses has increased. On the one hand, after the release of the periodic "Little Spring" demand in March, the seasonal decline in April; On the other hand, the recent market demand is dominated by rigid demand, mainly turning to the second-hand housing of medium and low price, small and medium-sized households. In addition, market expectations continue to weaken, and new and second-hand houses become competitive and fall into a cycle of price reduction.
It is worth noting that the second-hand housing "exchange price for volume" has achieved certain results. Zhang Bo said that according to the month on month data of the number of second-hand houses on the Anju guest line, the number of first tier cities decreased by 8.0%, the number of second tier cities decreased by 2.8%, and the number of third tier and fourth tier cities decreased by 5.3%. In April, the selling price of second-hand houses in the first tier cities fell 1.1% month on month, 0.4 percentage points more than that in the previous month. However, the effect of exchanging price for volume is obviously better than that in other cities. The substantial reduction of the number of houses on shelves is also the result of the accelerating pace of de urbanization. Second tier cities are accelerating the pace of second-hand housing price correction, with the decline of second-hand housing prices in Tianjin, Nanjing, Hefei, Hangzhou, Xiamen, Qingdao, Wuhan and other places exceeding 1% month on month. However, from the online data, the listing time of second-hand houses in second tier cities decreased by 7.9% month on month, which also shows that the price reduction has brought faster sales pace. It is expected that the turnover of second-hand houses in second tier cities will increase in May and June.
On the day of the release of the 70 city house price index, the Central Bank issued three heavy property market policies, known as "the most relaxed property market policy in the history of real estate", reducing the down payment ratio of the first and second houses, canceling the lower limit of the national housing loan interest rate, and lowering the housing provident fund loan interest rate by 0.25 percentage points. Industry insiders interviewed by reporters believe that such policies will help further digest the inventory of second-hand new houses in the future, boost the confidence of the real estate market throughout the year, and have a great incentive effect on young people and new citizens to buy houses.
