A number of heavy policies in the real estate industry have been introduced recently to establish a long-term mechanism, accelerate the de transformation of stock commercial housing, and promote the steady and healthy development of the market from multiple levels. To this end, China Securities News reporters visited the real estate market in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen on the first weekend after the release of the new policy to understand the real situation of the real estate market and the new development trends and characteristics. In general, driven by the policy, the activity of the property market in the first tier cities has been improved, and the demand for "old for new" has been stimulated to a certain extent.
Beijing: increase in consultation
Reporter Dong Tian
After a series of blockbuster policies were released, the transaction of Beijing property market attracted attention from all walks of life. On May 19, a reporter from China Securities News conducted a field survey of the new and second-hand housing markets in Beijing and found that the transaction volume of the real estate market had not significantly increased, but from the feedback of intermediaries, the number of inquiries had increased and the market was clearly "bottoming out".
The number of second-hand houses listed is high
"As a super large mature community outside the Fifth Ring Road, the community can sell 15 to 20 houses in one month during the peak transaction period from 2018 to 2019, and now can sell 8 to 10 houses in one month, half of the peak. The turnover has increased, but the price in the area where the community is located has generally dropped by 5% to 10% compared with that in the first quarter." Wang Hai (a pseudonym), the head of a chain store outside the South Fifth Ring Road Said to reporters.
According to Wang Hai, three houses were sold in the community in the recent week. "They are basically wait-and-see customers in the early stage. At present, policies have been intensively introduced, and the price has fallen to the expectations of these customers."
The reporter learned from the survey that the price of second-hand houses in the core area has an obvious downward trend. "There are millions of houses in our district that have been reduced in price. The transaction has been enlarged recently, but it is not very obvious." Li Li (a pseudonym), a school district salesperson located in Xisi District, Xicheng District, told reporters that most of the students who buy school district houses are house changing customers.
"In the early stage, the price was in a downward channel. With the introduction of intensive policies, the market for new houses and second-hand houses was looking for the bottom. Many customers who were optimistic about houses in the early stage recently sold, and the trend of" exchanging price for quantity "in Beijing's second-hand housing market was more obvious." Li Li said.
In terms of the number of second-hand houses listed, the reporter saw from the shell house search system that the number of second-hand houses listed in Beijing is 166595, which is high as a whole, with little change compared with the beginning of the month.
In addition, according to the data on the number of second-hand housing on shelves in Anju, in April, the sales price of second-hand housing in first tier cities fell 1.1% month on month, 0.4 percentage points more than that of last month. 58 Zhang Bo, president of Anjuke Research Institute, believes that the downward trend of housing prices continues, the pace of supply in the new housing market has slowed down, and the demand side sentiment is biased towards caution.
A senior person from Linkhome told China Securities News that the prices of commercial and residential houses have generally dropped by 50% to 70%, and it is estimated that there is little room for further price reduction.
High attention to improved housing
From the perspective of the new house market, the differentiation of new house transactions in Beijing is relatively obvious. "Although the policy was introduced intensively, the number of visitors and trading volume did not change much." The person in charge of several real estate projects told China Securities News.
Some projects are nearing the end of the day, and the trend of price reduction is obvious. Taking Daxing Xingguang City as an example, according to the introduction of the staff of shell house hunting, the price of the property was reduced by means of special price houses and other means. "In order to speed up the liquidation, the three bedroom house is more than 700000 lower than the customers who bought it earlier. After the price reduction, the house sold very quickly, but the price reduction is limited." The staff of Shell House told China Securities News.
Compared with rigid demand buildings, improved housing has a higher attention.
"The project is in the registration intention stage, and has not yet reached the subscription link, so many people come to consult. The project is located outside the Fifth Ring Road. After the introduction of the new policy, the housing supply outside the Fifth Ring Road is generally concerned by high net worth families, and the improved housing supply is more popular." The salesperson at a new housing sales office in Tongzhou District told China Securities News.
Decrease in interest rate of provident fund loan
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, told China Securities News that the confidence of property buyers needs to be slowly restored. At present, the interest rate of individual housing provident fund loan has been lowered, but it still takes time for other policies to be fully implemented.
On May 18, the WeChat official account "Beijing Provident Fund" issued a document saying that the loan interest rate of individual housing provident fund was lowered. For individual housing provident fund loans issued before May 18, the original interest rate standard for individual housing provident fund loans will still be implemented, and the adjusted interest rate standard for individual housing provident fund loans will be implemented from January 1, 2025. For personal housing provident fund loans that have been accepted before May 18 but not released and accepted after May 18 (inclusive), the adjusted interest rate standard for personal housing provident fund loans shall be implemented. Take the first house with a loan amount of 1 million yuan and a loan life of 30 years as an example. If the free repayment method is adopted, the interest rate after the implementation of the adjustment will be reduced by 154 yuan per month.
In addition, the reporter of China Securities News has learned that as long as the query in Beijing Municipal Commission of Housing and Urban Rural Development meets the conditions, Beijing families can purchase the third house at the interest rate of the second house loan. At present, the loan interest rate of the first house in Beijing is 4.05%, and the loan interest rate of the second house is 4.55%.
On May 17, the website of the People's Bank of China reported that the People's Bank of China issued a notice saying that the lower limit of interest rate policy for commercial individual housing loans for the first and second homes at the national level was cancelled. On the same day, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration issued a notice on adjusting the minimum down payment ratio of individual housing loans. The notice clearly states that for households who purchase commercial housing with loans, the minimum down payment ratio of commercial individual housing loans for the first housing is adjusted to not less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio of commercial individual housing loans for the second housing is adjusted to not less than 25%.
Shanghai: "Trade in the old for the new" activates the demand for replacement
Reporter Qiao Xiang, Li Mengyang
"I sold another set in the afternoon," a salesperson of a new project in Songjiang, Shanghai told China Securities News.
On May 18, during a field visit to several real estate projects in Shanghai, the reporter found that after the introduction of the new policy in the property market, with the help of the "old for new" activity, many new sales offices in Shanghai were crowded, and the number of on-site consultations increased significantly, and the activity increased.
Demand for convenient transaction activation
On May 3, the Shanghai Real Estate Industry Association and the Shanghai Real Estate Brokerage Industry Association jointly proposed to launch the "old for new" activity of commercial housing in Shanghai, which is mainly aimed at residents who plan to sell second-hand houses and purchase new houses.
More than 20 real estate development enterprises and nearly 10 real estate brokerage agencies participated in the first batch of initiatives. At present, on the official channel of this activity Alipay "Leju for new purchase" applet, the information of the first 10 new disks participating in the activity has been disclosed. It is reported that more than 20 new projects are expected to participate in the event.
"In addition to a large number of online and offline consultations, customers have successively paid deposits to lock up the housing supply." As one of the participants in the "old for new" activity, the sales staff of a new project sales office located in Pudong Xinchang, Shanghai told reporters, "Intentional customers first select new houses, then sign contracts with developers, and at the same time pay deposits ranging from 50000 yuan to 200000 yuan to 'lock up' the houses. The cooperative real estate intermediary will spare no effort to provide customers with old house sales services. After the old house is sold within a certain period of time, the deposit for the new house will be converted into the down payment for the new house. " If the old house is not sold within the time limit, you can unconditionally "check out and refund".
"I just got married last year, the house is a little small, and I want to replace a larger three bedroom house." At the sales office of a new project, a citizen told reporters that this activity has provided great convenience for groups like him.
"The launch of the event has provided convenience for replacement customers in two aspects: one is to lock up the new house with a small amount of money; the other is to further improve the transaction convenience by selling old houses through cooperative intermediaries." The salesperson of a new project located in the central area of Puxi, Shanghai believes that the "old for new" policy can activate the demand for replacement.
Many customers came to inquire
The reporter learned from several new sales offices participating in the "old for new" activity that the policy has played a certain role, attracting a certain number of replacement customers to "trade in the old for the new".
At 10:00 on May 18, the reporter came to the sales office of a new project in Songjiang, Shanghai, and found that many customers had consulted on the spot. "There are a lot of customers coming for consultation, mainly improvement customers. I have signed two customers here and locked in two sets of houses." The salesperson said, "There is no discount in terms of house prices. The exclusive benefits are mainly based on the customer's payment cycle to give certain parking space concessions, property fees concessions, etc."
The transaction chart displayed by the salesperson shows that on the day of the launch of the "old for new" activity on May 3, 3 of the 16 houses of the project have been sold (locked).
The above new projects in Shanghai Pudong Xinchang also attracted many exchange customers to come for consultation. "The bottom line of the 'old for new' activity is superimposed with preferential policies, which is really attractive on the whole." The salesperson of the project introduced to the reporter, "The discount includes the linkage with the second-hand housing transaction, that is, a discount of 1% of the total price of the second-hand housing sold by the replacement customer. For example, the customer's second-hand housing sold 3 million yuan, and can enjoy a discount of 30000 yuan when signing the new housing contract, with a ceiling of 60000 yuan. ”
The landing effect still needs to be observed
In the replacement process, as an indispensable part, the real estate intermediary is crucial to the final "trade in the old for the new".
"If a customer buys a house here, its second-hand house will be listed on the cooperative intermediary platform at the same time, and the intermediary will provide certain special discounts, including consulting services, discount and exemption of intermediary fees," the general manager of a new project in Fengxian, Shanghai told reporters.
It is reported that the intermediary agencies participating in this activity will "promote and give priority to the sale of the old houses of the replacement customers throughout the city", and will give certain exclusive commission concessions in the transaction process of second-hand houses.
"According to the past transaction process, in order to promote a quick transaction, many customers will purchase additional 'Haozan' services to get streaming, with prices ranging from 6800 yuan to 9800 yuan." A salesperson of an intermediary store located in Taopu Road, Putuo, Shanghai told reporters that in this "old for new" activity, cooperative intermediaries can provide varying degrees of streaming discounts for replacement customers.
It is worth mentioning that the reporter learned that compared with ordinary second-hand housing transactions, intermediary business personnel will have additional performance bonus to facilitate "serial orders".
A real estate agent told the reporter that for replacement customers, on the one hand, he would do his best to help them "sell the old", on the other hand, he would actively recommend the new cooperative market "trade the old for the new", and help customers to strive for additional concessions in the process of trade in. "There will be a commission for helping customers sell an old house. After successfully recommending a new house and closing the deal, they will get an additional commission from the developer."
Some salespeople said that "old for new" is based on the premise of selling old houses. At present, there are few customers who follow the complete replacement process, and the final implementation effect of the "consignment" model needs further observation.
In the opinion of Ding Zuyu, the chairman of Kerui Group, "trade in the old for the new" can help the replacement customers to sell houses quickly, reduce the purchase cost of buyers and improve their willingness to buy houses. In the current replacement chain, the core is still how to quickly "sell the old". If you want to achieve obvious results from point to area, you still need to mobilize multiple resources.
Guangzhou: Developers push sales promotion overnight to compete for customers
Reporter Wu Weihong
A few days ago, a reporter from China Securities News visited several real estates in Guangzhou and learned that after the release of this blockbuster policy, Guangzhou developers actively promoted sales, and many projects released the latest promotional preferential policies overnight, starting the battle for customers. Industry insiders predict that with the gradual introduction and implementation of relevant policies and rules, market confidence is expected to be further boosted. At the same time, the performance of Guangzhou's real estate market will be further differentiated.
Carry out preferential promotion
At the scene of a real estate in Baiyun District, Guangzhou, the reporter saw a huge display board. It is understood that after the release of this policy, the sales department rushed to prepare the latest promotional materials overnight to introduce the highlights of relevant policies and the latest concessions in detail. According to the on-site staff, as soon as the policy was released, the project immediately announced the implementation of the latest down payment ratio and other policies, carefully selected some houses for promotion, and offered a discount of 99% on the current price level. The property fee can also be given for subscription and signing.
The reporter saw on the spot that although it rained on weekends, customers still visited the sales center and model rooms. "This wave of support policies has been very strong, and the project has also increased its sales promotion, attracting many people to watch the market, which has generated a lot of popularity." A field salesperson said that with the introduction of specific implementation rules, it is expected that market popularity will further recover.
The reporter learned from the field visit that in order to seize the policy dividend and compete for customers, the competition between the major buildings continues to heat up. Some projects have upgraded and renovated the marketing center, and some projects have introduced preferential measures such as Buy It Now listings.
Boost market confidence
A real estate intermediary told the reporter that Guangzhou had introduced many support policies before, but the buyers were in a strong wait-and-see mood. This time, the country has introduced a number of favorable policies, which greatly exceeded expectations and is expected to have a positive impact on boosting market confidence. In particular, the reduction of down payment ratio and loan interest rate is expected to stimulate some potential housing demand.
The reporter learned that in addition to the loan proportion and loan cost that people generally care about, whether the real estate can be delivered on time is still the focus of attention of buyers. Industry insiders said to reporters that after the introduction of this policy, the state has significantly increased its support for housing insurance, further reducing the risk of uncompleted housing, which is expected to stabilize and boost the confidence of buyers.
Since this year, Guangzhou has successively introduced real estate financing support policies and continuously increased the support for guaranteed housing. On February 8, Guangzhou released the first batch of financing "white list" projects, involving 47 projects in total. One month later, the second batch of financing "white list" was released, and 116 projects were selected. In the first quarter of this year, the banking institutions under the jurisdiction of the Guangdong Supervision Bureau of the State Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau have provided about 73.7 billion yuan of credit for two batches of real estate financing "white list" projects, and 18.4 billion yuan has been issued. It is understood that, with the support of financing policies, some difficult projects have received timely financial support to ensure the smooth completion and delivery, which has played a positive role in enhancing residents' confidence in buying houses and stabilizing the real estate market.
The differentiation is obvious
In the second half of last year, Guangzhou took the lead among the first tier cities in announcing the relaxation of purchase restrictions in some regions. In January this year, Guangzhou again took the lead in liberalizing the purchase restrictions on residential buildings over 120 square meters. The reporter learned from field visits that these policies have played a positive role in promoting the steady development of the real estate market. At present, the overall performance of Guangzhou's real estate market is stable, but the market differentiation is relatively obvious.
According to the data of China Index Research Institute, in April, the price of new residential buildings in Guangzhou fell 0.06% month on month, 0.04 percentage points lower than that of last month, and 0.29% higher than that of last year. The volume of new housing market was stable and the price fell, and the market heat was significantly differentiated. The central area was affected by some high-quality buildings entering the market, showing a certain degree of activity, while the transactions in the peripheral areas were relatively weak.
In terms of second-hand housing market, in April, the turnover of Guangzhou second-hand housing market declined compared with the previous month, and the number of listings continued to rise. In terms of price, the price of second-hand residential buildings in Guangzhou fell 0.73% month on month, 0.38 percentage points higher than that of last month, and 3.50% lower than that of last year.
Shenzhen: Take a leap of observation
Reporter Huang Lingling
"Shenzhen Reproducing Day CD", "The price of the new market rises overnight"... These copybooks brush the screen of friends, and the Shenzhen property market becomes "agitated". On May 17, the central bank issued three real estate related regulation policies, which were interpreted by the industry as "epic" good.
China Securities News reporter found that after the release of the new policy, Shenzhen's new market and second-hand housing consultation and transaction heat has increased. However, some employees reported that the price of some new stocks was not increased in fact because of the posters of "price increase" or "discount recovery", or for marketing purposes.
News of multiple new deals
After the release of the new policy, Shenzhen quickly followed up. On May 18, Shenzhen announced to reduce the interest rate of housing provident fund loans.
Specifically, Shenzhen Housing and Urban Rural Development Bureau has made it clear that the adjusted interest rate will be implemented from July 1, 2024 for individual housing provident fund loans issued by Shenzhen before May 18; The individual housing provident fund loans applied for and not issued before May 18, 2024, and the individual housing provident fund loans applied after May 18, 2024 (inclusive), are subject to the adjusted interest rate.
Some developers "strike while the iron is hot", and projects have entered the market. On May 18, the first day after the new policy was issued, a new residential house in Bao'an Central District, Shenzhen was opened. A total of 129 houses were launched in the new market, 126 of which were sold on the same day, and only 3 houses were left for sale, with a reduction rate of 98%, close to "Sunlight". The developer received 1.49 billion yuan in the same day.
It is reported that the board mainly sells 4-5 bedrooms with an area of 122-189 square meters, and the average price for filing is about 85500 yuan/square meter. The project has a good deconstruction, which is mainly due to the advantages of good commercial supporting facilities, proximity to subway stations and other supporting facilities, as well as early passenger storage and other factors.
In addition, there are many new deals reported in Shenzhen. For example, the sales volume of the first day after the new deal in Futian District was 110 million yuan, and the first day after the new deal in Longhua District was 28 sets.
"Customers' attention has come up, and the number of people looking at the house has increased significantly." A real estate agent store manager in Luohu District, Shenzhen told reporters that there were still customers looking at the house at more than 1 a.m. in Yixinpan, Longhua District.
The store manager said that on the first weekend after the New Deal, the store received more than 20 groups of house visitors every day, while before the New Deal, there were only 5-6 groups of house visitors every day.
No obvious change in price
It is worth noting that after the introduction of the new policy, the Shenzhen property market became "restless". Rumors such as "the price of new buildings rises overnight" and "some buildings take back the preferential discount" have swept through the circle of friends, causing hot discussion in the market.
For example, the poster of a new board in Guangming District shows that the price will rise by 1% on May 20. However, the reporter verified the rumored price rise property and found that there was no price rise and the original discount was still maintained.
It is understood that the property will be opened in September 2023, with about 500 residential units for sale, with a floor area of 83-120 square meters. The salesperson of the property told the reporter that there are still more than 100 houses in the property, the price is 85% off the record price, and the unit price after discount is 33000-40000 yuan/square meter. "If you are really interested, the price can be around 81% off."
Another example is a new development in Longhua District: "After the New Deal, there have been many good sales reports, many house types and floors have disappeared, and the discount will be withdrawn, and specific notice will be given." But the reporter learned that the discount has not been withdrawn for the development at present, which is still 85% off the record price.
"At present, I haven't heard of any real estate that is going to rise in price, which may be dominated by marketing elements." The head of the aforementioned real estate intermediary store in Luohu District told the reporter that the price of second-hand houses has not been heard of. On the contrary, some second-hand house owners who are eager to sell their houses are willing to give in (reduce) the price when they clinch a deal.
In addition, there are market rumors that Shenzhen Youxin has implemented a down payment of 15% for the first set and 25% for the second set. In this regard, several new sales staff said: "The approval process can be carried out according to the down payment of 15% for the first set and 25% for the second set, but it depends on whether the bank can approve it. The approval time is 3-4 weeks. If it cannot be approved at that time, you can check out."
As for the impact of the new policy, Li Yujia, the chief researcher of the Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, said that the new policy would lower the interest rate of provident fund loans, especially if the lower limit of commercial loan interest rate was not restricted, and the monthly supply might be significantly reduced. This has a great incentive effect on young people and new citizens to buy houses. According to the data since last year, buyers mainly purchase second-hand houses, which is of great significance to promote the circulation of new and second-hand houses, activate trading sentiment and stabilize the price system.
"This policy is stronger than that of 2008, which has a great role in boosting market confidence, and confidence is the key to reversing the decline of real estate," said Zheng Shulun, president of South China of Centaline Real Estate.
