Outlook for methanol in the second half of 2023

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Outlook for methanol in the second half of 2023: It is expected that methanol 1900-2400 will operate in a wide range of shocks, Jinshi Futures, July 3. In the first half of the year, the main transaction of methanol, the downward coal price, will drive the recovery of the profits of the methanol industry chain, and the main contract will fall to the current price of the front line 2000. This logical phased PriceIn is on the market; However, in the second half of the year, it is expected that the coal price will hardly see a trend improvement, and the lower cost side will always "drag" methanol upward. From the perspective of self supply and demand, the general direction of domestic oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and the traditional downstream contradictions are limited, but it is also difficult to see effective stimulus. In the general direction of MTO, in the period of polyolefin capacity expansion, combined with weak demand for polyolefin downstream, the resistance to repair of MTO profits will increase. In the second half of the year, we can focus on the phased demand stimulus brought by the restart of Silbang and the new production of Baofeng. The port inventory is expected to accumulate first and then go to the warehouse. Pay attention to the correction of the expected month on month contraction of imports from July to August due to the disturbance of Iranian devices. It is suggested to grasp the phased market, and it is expected that methanol 1900-2400 will operate in a wide range of shocks. In terms of arbitrage, attention should be paid to the 9-1 counter arbitrage opportunity corresponding to the port inventory rhythm and the MTO profit shrinking opportunity. (GF Futures)

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