(Data map)
Source: Guosheng Securities
Guosheng Securities Research News pointed out that in the first quarter, the scale of fund holdings rose slightly, and the equity position reached a new high. Five highlights of active equity biased funds' position adjustment in the first quarter: the consensus of position increase is still strong; The allocation of mass entrepreneurship and innovation is differentiated, and the position of the science and technology innovation board continues to reach a new high; TMT has been intensively added, and computers have leapt to be over allocated; The industry allocation is still differentiated, and the position adjustment is still dominated by head rotation; Jinshan Office (quotation 688111, Diagnostic Unit ）Among the top ten positions, iFLYTEK (002230), Diagnostic Unit ）Achieved consistent overweight.
Report Summary
Overall configuration: the scale has slightly increased month on month, and it is still a consensus to add positions.
The fund's shareholding scale rose slightly, and its equity position reached a new high. In the first quarter, the market value of fund holdings rose slightly by 0.37% to 4199053 million yuan, while the total size of fund assets fell 0.97% month on month to 4954335 million yuan, and the proportion of circulating market value fell from 6.31% in the fourth quarter to 5.84%, still at a low level in nearly two years. In terms of equity positions, the overall equity position rose by 1.13% to 84.76%, and the median equity position rose by 0.97% to 89.83% month on month, both of which hit new highs since 2005.
Five highlights of active equity biased funds' position adjustment in the first quarter:
Highlight 1: The consensus on adding positions is still strong, focusing on three characteristics. The fund equity overweight in the first quarter showed three characteristics: first, small and medium-sized funds were more willing to overweight, and the proportion of fund overweight of 10 billion yuan and below was relatively higher; Second, the funds with high positions are more willing to continue to increase their positions, and the proportion of funds with high equity positions is relatively higher; Third, the high and low differentiation of fund equity positions is more significant. The equity position allocation of most funds is close to the past peak or under the historical hub, and the "dumbbell" feature is obvious.
Focus 2: The configuration of mass entrepreneurship and innovation is differentiated, and the position of the science and technology innovation board continues to hit a new high. In the first quarter, GEM positions turned back downward, while the Science and Technology Innovation Board continued to gain consistent increase in holdings, and the configuration of mass entrepreneurship and innovation moved towards differentiation, and the position of the Science and Technology Innovation Board continued to hit a new historical high, with the proportion of over allocation rising to 1.35%.
Look at point 3: TMT has been added intensively, and computers have leapt to over configuration. In the first quarter, the AI industry catalyzed the centralized release, and the TMT sector, which has been relatively under allocated for a long time, was intensively allocated. The position rose by 5.6% in total, of which the computer position increased by 3.8% in a single quarter, and the single quarter month on month growth was only second to the first quarter of 2015. At the same time, the computer has also successfully jumped to the super configuration, but it is still lower than the super configuration high point of 19-20 years.
Highlight 4: The industry configuration differentiation is still the same, and the position adjustment is still dominated by head rotation. In the first quarter, the shareholding concentration of the Top5 primary industry rose against the trend, indicating that the position adjustment was more concentrated in the top heavy position industries, and the hot and cold differentiation of the industry configuration was still significant. Among them, the non bank financial position hit a new low in nearly 10 years, and the positions of joint-stock banks and beverage dairy products in the subdivided industries also fell to the historical bottom.
Highlight 5: Kingsoft Office ranks among the top ten positions, and iFLYTEK has consistently increased its shareholding. In the first quarter, the top ten positions of the Fund were relatively stable, and the core change was that Kingsoft Office had a strong presence in the positions, Diagnostic Unit ）At the same time, the AI concept object represented by iFLYTEK was consistently increased by all kinds of funds, and the willingness to adjust the position of individual stocks was obviously concentrated on the TMT plate.
Risk tips: 1. The fund statistical sample has certain limitations; 2. Statistical methods may have some errors.
Report body
1、 Overall configuration: the scale has slightly increased month on month, and it is still a consensus to add positions
In the first quarter of 2023, the scale of fund holdings rebounded slightly, while the proportion of asset size and current market value declined slightly. We selected ordinary equity funds, partial equity hybrid funds, flexible allocation funds and balanced hybrid funds as statistical samples (hereinafter referred to as active partial equity funds). The measurement results show that the size of the market value of active partial equity funds' holdings in the first quarter rose slightly by 0.37% to 4199.053 billion yuan, while the total size of fund assets fell 0.97% month on month to 4954.335 billion yuan, The proportion of circulating market value dropped from 6.31% in the fourth quarter to 5.84%, still at a low level in nearly two years.
Equity positions continued to rise, hitting a new peak since 2005. From the perspective of the holistic approach, the equity position of active equity biased funds rose by 1.13% to 84.76%, a new high since 2005. Among them, the equity positions of common equity funds, partial equity hybrid funds, flexible allocation funds and balanced hybrid funds reached 89.59% (+0.51%), 88.27% (+0.87%), 76.04% (+1.78%) and 52.95% (+1.29%) respectively. From the perspective of the median, the equity position of active equity biased funds rose 0.97% month on month in the fourth quarter, reaching 89.83%, a new high since 2005. Among them, the equity positions of common equity funds, partial equity hybrid funds, flexible allocation funds and balanced hybrid funds reached 91.62% (+0.69%), 90.56% (+0.95%), 86.12% (+1.25%) and 63.55% (+1.16%) respectively.
Specifically, the equity position and adjustment of funds in the first quarter showed three characteristics: first, small and medium-sized funds were more willing to increase their positions. Grouped by market value, the proportion of funds with the size of 10 billion yuan and below was relatively higher; Second, funds with high positions are more willing to continue to increase their positions. According to the statistics of historical equity position distribution of products, the proportion of funds with high equity positions is relatively higher; Third, the differentiation of fund equity positions is relatively significant. The proportion of funds whose equity positions are at or above 90% of the historical quantile or lower than the historical hub is relatively high, while the proportion of funds at the middle level is relatively low.
In terms of the sector, the Science and Technology Innovation Board achieved consistent overweight, and its position continued to hit a new high. The fund main board position continued to decline in the first quarter, down 0.19% month on month compared with the fourth quarter. The position adjustment of mass entrepreneurship and innovation was significantly differentiated. The GEM position fell 0.98%, while the position of the science and technology innovation board continued to climb 1.16%, continuing to hit a record high. Specifically, in addition to balanced hybrid funds, active partial funds consistently increased their positions on the Science and Technology Innovation Board and reduced their positions on the GEM, while the main board still had differences. By the end of the first quarter, the positions of active partial funds in the main board, GEM, science and technology innovation board and Beijing Stock Exchange had reached 70.2%, 20.6%, 9.1% and 0.1% respectively.
2、 Industry configuration: fast incline from new energy to TMT
In the first quarter, the new energy position fell sharply, the TMT allocation rose significantly, and the allocation of the consumption sector was divided. From the perspective of absolute position changes, the positions of computers, communications, food and beverage, media, and household appliances in the primary industry rose among the top, with an increase of 3.82%, 0.91%, 0.82%, 0.53%, and 0.37% month on month respectively, while the positions of power equipment, defense and military industry, banks, real estate, and commercial retail fell mostly, with a decrease of 2.95%, 1.05%, 1.04%, 0.61%, and 0.56% month on month respectively. In the secondary industry, the positions of software development, liquor, computer equipment, communication equipment and IT services rose among the top, with a month on month increase of 2.37%, 0.99%, 0.90%, 0.62% and 0.55% respectively, while the positions of photovoltaic equipment, batteries, medical services, aviation equipment and real estate development fell mostly, with a month on month decrease of 1.32%, 1.09%, 0.81%, 0.73% and 0.61% respectively. In summary, in the first quarter, the allocation of the fund industry shifted rapidly from new energy to TMT, with TMT positions rising by 5.60% in total, and positions of electric equipment, automobiles and military industry shrinking by 4.33% in total; At the same time, the internal consumption sector was divided, among which liquor, traditional Chinese medicine, chemical pharmaceuticals, white appliances and black appliances in the commodity category rose 2.08% in total, while medical services, tourism retail, hotel catering, medical beauty, beverage and dairy products in the service category and post epidemic travel fell 1.68% in total.
Excluding the rise and fall effect, TMT and core consumption were among the top shareholders, while new energy, military industry and banks were mostly underweight. In the first quarter, the market surged, the performance of the industry was extremely differentiated, TMT took the lead, and the performance of financial real estate was weak. Excluding the two key reference dimensions of the rise and fall effect, the first is to estimate the extent of the fund's active position adjustment based on the performance of the industry index. The results show that computers, food and beverage, communications, medicine and biology, and household appliances are among the top, with active positions increased by about 2.55%, 0.96%, 0.68%, 0.55% and 0.34% respectively, while power equipment, defense and military industry, banks The majority of electronic and commercial retails suffered from voluntary position reduction, about 1.98%, 0.99%, 0.80%, 0.48% and 0.40% respectively; Second, we observed the change in the willingness to increase holdings in combination with the marginal change in the fund industry's over allocation range. The results showed that computers, food and beverage, communications, medicine and biology, and household appliances were among the top performers, with the over allocation range increasing by 2.65%, 1.12%, 0.57%, 0.48%, and 0.34% respectively, while electric equipment, defense and military industry, electronics, banking, and commercial retail were more willing to reduce their holdings, The over allocation range decreased by 2.45%, 1.05%, 0.58%, 0.39% and 0.35% respectively. From both perspectives, it is expected that computers, food and beverage, communications, medicine, household appliances and media will be among the top performers, while power equipment, military industry, banking and electronics will be mostly underweight.
Industry concentration tends to differentiate, and configuration rotation is still dominated by leading industries. From the perspective of static positions, food and beverage, electrical equipment, medicine and biology, electronics and computers are among the top five heavy positions, with positions reaching 16.4%, 14.8%, 12.0%, 8.9% and 8.1% respectively. At the same time, the concentration of industry shareholding was differentiated in the first quarter. The proportion of primary industry shareholding in Top3 heavy positions decreased by 2.0% month on month, while the proportion of primary industry shareholding in Top5 heavy positions increased by 2.0% month on month. This indicates that fund position adjustment is more concentrated in the top five heavy positions, and the industry allocation is still highly concentrated, but the allocation focus is shifted from new energy to TMT and consumption.
From a historical perspective, industry allocation differentiation is still significant. Based on the observation of industry position and industry over allocation ratio, the industry allocation differentiation of the current fund is still significant, among which transportation, power equipment, non-ferrous metals, defense and military industry, and food and beverage positions are still relatively high, and the over allocation ratio is also at a historical high; While non bank finance, commercial retail, household appliances and building materials not only declined to the bottom of their positions, but also the proportion of over allocation fell to a low level. Among them, non bank financial positions have also broken new lows since 2010. On the one hand, the segmentation direction of the early high level operation has generally retreated, and only chemical raw materials, new metal materials, industrial metals, household appliance parts and shipping port positions are still above the 95% historical position; On the other hand, the positions of banks, real estate and other subdivisions have continued to fall, among which the positions of joint-stock banks, beverage and dairy products have hit a new low since 2010, and the positions of real estate development and large state-owned banks are also at the historical bottom.
To sum up, the reality of the first quarter is getting stronger but the expectation is getting weaker, and the theme wheel speed up catalytic funds are rapidly flowing to TMT. The macroeconomic and financial data of the first quarter started well at the same time, but with the implementation of the economic goals of the whole year, the economic repair efforts and sustainability have become the constraints of the upward economic expectations. The macro logic has shifted from "strong expectations+weak realities" to "strong realities+weak expectations", which has led to the relative "blood loss" in the post epidemic travel service field. At the same time, the residual liquidity of the market is still relatively abundant, the overseas AI industry and the domestic concept of mid special evaluation also continue to catalyze, and the market theme rotation is significantly accelerated. First, the long-term relatively low configuration of TMT has gained significant favor, the computer configuration has jumped to over configuration, and the related communications and media have also gained some positions; Second, the construction, electric power, refining and chemical industries related to the special appraisal concept in China also gained some increase. In general, Pan New Energy, which was heavily invested in the early stage, and post epidemic travel consumption, which was allocated in the early stage, are the main sources of funds for the recent fund position adjustment, while Pan AI and Pan China Special, which are subject driven, as well as consumption of core assets, are the main sources of funds.
3、 Allocation of individual shares: shareholding concentration has fallen, and Kingsoft Office has gained the top position
Shareholding concentration continued to decline, hitting a new low in recent five years. As of the end of the first quarter, the shareholding of the top 20, top 50 and top 100 publicly offered shares fell compared with the previous quarter, reaching 28.1% (30.3%), 42.1% (45.6%) and 55.6% (59.3%) respectively, continuing to hit a new low since 2018, and the shareholding "group" at the individual stock level continued to weaken. From the perspective of heavy position stocks, the top five heavy positions rank firmly, followed by Guizhou Moutai (market price 600519, Diagnostic Unit ）Ningde Times (300750), Diagnostic Unit ）Luzhou Laojiao (quotation 000568, Diagnostic Unit ）Wuliangye (market price 000858, Diagnostic Unit ）And WuXi AppTec (market price 603259, Diagnostic Unit ）At the same time, Jinshan Office was added to the heavy position list and Yiwei Lithium Energy withdrew from the top ten heavy positions.
At the individual stock level, Jinshan Office was mostly overweight, and Yiwei Lithium was mostly underweight. From the perspective of individual stock position adjustment, Kingsoft Office and Hikvision (market price 002415, Diagnostic Unit ）Luzhou Laojiao, iFLYTEK, Zhongji Xuchuang (300308 yuan), Diagnostic Unit ）Most of the positions were improved, with positions increasing by 0.63%, 0.55%, 0.40%, 0.37% and 0.27%; At the same time, Yiwei Lithium Energy and Ziguang Guowei (market 002049, Diagnostic Unit ）China Exemption (601888), Diagnostic Unit ）BYD (002594), Diagnostic Unit ）Bank of Ningbo (quotation 002142, Diagnostic Unit ）Most positions fell back, with positions falling 0.63%, 0.60%, 0.53%, 0.52% and 0.36% respectively. In addition, in combination with the list of four types of fund positions, iFLYTEK, Jinshan Office and Luzhou Laojiao have strong consensus on adding positions, and Yiwei Lithium Energy, Ziguang Guowei and BYD have strong consensus on reducing positions.
Risk warning
1. The fund statistical sample has certain limitations; 2. Statistical methods may have some errors.
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