[Trend today] On April 13 (Tuesday), the market of the two cities rose and fell back, and then closed the negative line. By the end of the day, the Shanghai Composite Index had fallen 0.48% to close at 3396 points; The Shenzhen Composite Index rose 0.24% to close at 13528; The GEM rose 0.84% to close at 2742. The turnover of 671.5 billion yuan in the two markets throughout the day was 104.2 billion yuan less than the 7757 yuan of the previous trading day, and the volume of energy has shrunk by 13.4% today on the basis of yesterday's 11.7% increase.
The three major indexes opened slightly lower, led by the aquaculture sector, and then all the stock indexes turned red, liquor stocks rose sharply, digital currencies rose, and the concept of carbon neutrality retreated. The Hainan Free Trade Zone sector suffered a cold spell. The intraday index fluctuated and rose, with aquaculture, digital currency, new crown detection and other sectors continuing to lead the rise, medical and beauty concepts, sewage treatment, shipping concepts, smart speakers and other sectors rising successively, liquor stocks rebounded significantly, and power, coal and other cyclical stocks continued to decline.
In the afternoon, the index weakened again, the tourism sector dived, China Central Avoidance Flash Crash fell, and the agricultural planting sector rose. On the whole, the risk aversion of funds still exists.
[Market hotspot] From the perspective of the market, the big and small indexes diverged significantly throughout the day, and individual stocks showed a general downward trend. More than 3000 stocks fell in both cities, and more than 30 stocks fell by the limit. On the plate, the carbon neutral concept stocks were ebbing all over the board. Several stocks, such as Hubei Energy and Henan Energy Holding, fell by the limit. Steel, Hainan, coal and other sectors also showed weak performance. In addition, the votes of many institutions, such as China Central Exemption and Songcheng Performance, also fell sharply. Today's trading of individual stocks is dominated by low prices, with obvious signs of high and low capital switching.
【 Funds 】 Statistics show that today's net purchase of northbound funds reached 8.471 billion yuan, and the daily net purchase reached a new high in more than a month.
According to Level-2 data, the main capital outflow of the two markets today is 30 billion yuan, including 14.4 billion yuan from Shanghai and 15.6 billion yuan from Shenzhen.
In terms of sectors: as of the closing, few sectors had been net bought by the main capital. Electronic equipment, biological products, and liquor making ranked top, while power, electronic components, and securities futures ranked top in net sales of the main capital.
Technical Analysis Today's rebound is hindered by the 20th line (3437 points), which is also the pressure level for tomorrow.
The 11th red pillar appeared on the MACD daily line. The red pillar is constantly shortening, and will be glued tomorrow. The green pillar will continue for 60 minutes, and the index will look for support again.
[Future view] I pointed out here last Friday: “ It is still necessary to be alert to the risk of high level themes. On the technical side, the fall of the Shanghai Index to the half year line is supported, but it is expected that the probability of continued decline after short-term support is still large ” 。
On the central line, the market began to deviate from the track on July 3, triggering the adjustment trend starting at 3731 this time. After this adjustment, the market returned to the track. The first foot landed at 3328, rebounded to 3478 for the first time, and then pulled back; The second foot landed at 3344, rebounded to 3495 for the second time and then pulled back. Since the second foot is higher than the first foot, the high point of the first rebound is also higher than the first, so I think this callback will not fall below the line of the previous two low points.
On a short-term basis, I drew a short-term trend chart for you at the weekend. Now it is still in this chart, and it may be necessary to test the next track support again. On the whole, the market worries have not eased, and the pressure on capital has increased. Support position for tomorrow: off track; Pressure level: Line 20.
When it comes to foreign capital bottom hunting, will domestic capital follow? Domestic capital has been selling continuously recently, which also has their difficulties, because they have to sell in order to cope with redemption. Since March, the Shanghai index has fallen by more than 100 points, and the stock exchange open-ended index fund (ETF) has been impacted, with the total size falling below the 800 billion yuan threshold.
The outflow of 23.7 billion yuan from Shanghai Stock Exchange and 10 billion yuan from GEM yesterday. The proportion of net purchases in both indexes is about - 7. Combined with today's capital inflow of 8.471 billion yuan, it can be concluded that foreign capital is buying the bottom, and domestic funded institutions represented by short-term public offerings are selling heavily. The risk of short-term market chasing game is greater than the return.
Today has not fallen to the low line, then it is likely that the market is expected to rise near this line tomorrow! Tomorrow, relying on the support of this line, there will be a technical rebound. Smart capital and foreign capital kept flowing in all day today. When the market fell sharply, the inflow of foreign capital accelerated, indicating that foreign capital was accelerating to copy the bottom.
Operation Although the short-term index is exhausted, will Ma Fangnanshan have a rest for the retail investors who are unable to identify the potential performance exceeding expectations in advance? In fact, our view is not to be pessimistic, but to cherish the current time node and do more homework. We should first record the stocks whose performance exceeded expectations, and then specifically identify whether the company's own reasons led to the performance exceeded expectations.
