Money supply

Money stock of social economic operation
Collection
zero Useful+1
zero
Money supply; supply of money, also known as money stock and money supply, refers to the sum of cash and deposits in circulation at a certain point in time. Money supply is one of the main economic statistical indicators compiled and published by the central banks of various countries. At present, China's money supply statistics are based on the day. The so-called amount of money on a certain date is actually the amount of money at the end of the day when the banks that handle money are closed. On this basis, if the monthly monetary volume refers to the monthly average, the calculation can be more detailed, and it can be the average of the daily monetary volume of the whole month. Roughly, it can be the average of the two money stocks at the beginning and end of the month. The same is true for the annual average monetary volume. For analysis of some problems, you can also use figures such as month end, quarter end and year-end currency balance. The actual level of money supply is the object of a country's monetary policy adjustment. Forecasting the growth and change of money supply is the basis for a country to formulate monetary policy. Due to the different economic and financial development and reality of each country, as well as the different interpretations of economists on the definition of money, the monetary supply indicators published by the central banks of each country are also different. yes Money supply in narrow sense (sum of cash in circulation and demand deposits in commercial banks) and money supply in wild sense (The sum of money supply in narrow sense and fixed deposits in commercial banks) [1]
Chinese name
Money supply
Foreign name
money supply;supply of money
Alias
Money stock money supply Money in circulation
Concept
The amount of money in circulation in a country as of a certain time
Nature
Indicators reflecting the economic and financial situation of a country
Classification
Money supply can be divided into narrow sense and broad sense
Field
Macroeconomics

Terminology

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Explanation 1

Money supply refers to the total amount of money available for payment owned by industrial and commercial enterprises and individuals in a country. It includes bank notes in circulation, hard currency and demand deposits, but does not include cash on hand of financial authorities. Money supply is an important indicator for financial authorities to intervene in economic development through financial markets. (Economic Daily, September 7, 1989) [2]

Interpretation II

Money supply refers to the total stock of money that can be used for various transactions within a certain period of time in a country's economy. The money supply can be divided into different levels according to the strength of money liquidity, namely M zero 、M one 、M two 、M three 、M four Etc. The initial supply of money supply is the base money provided by the central bank. This base currency has been deposited and withdrawn by commercial banks for countless times, and many deposit currencies have been derived, resulting in multiple monetary expansion. The amount of money supply is positively related to the final total demand of society, so the central bank usually regards money supply as the intermediary target of monetary policy. Maintaining the basic balance between money supply and money demand is the basic task of the central bank's monetary policy [3]

Explanation III

Money supply is the total amount of money that can be used for various transactions in a country's economy. Including cash, deposits, commercial paper, negotiable financial bonds, government bonds, etc. All the money that can be traded by economic sectors and individuals other than the central bank and financial institutions is a component of the money supply. The initial supply of money supply is the base currency provided by the central bank. This base currency has been deposited and withdrawn by commercial banks for countless times, and many deposit currencies and payment instruments that can be used for transactions have been derived, resulting in multiple monetary expansion. The amount of money supply is positively related to the final total demand of society, so taking money supply as the intermediary target of the central bank's monetary policy can ultimately affect the overall economic goal of society.
The money supply can be divided into different levels according to the strength of money liquidity, namely M zero 、M one 、M two 、M three 、M four ... etc. Keeping the basic balance between money supply and money demand is the basic task of the central bank's monetary policy.
As an endogenous variable, the money supply is in direct proportion to the cycle of the economy itself. When the economy is active, the banking system will reduce its own money reserves, expand credit, and increase the money supply with the expansion of the economy; When the economy is at a low ebb, the banking system will increase money reserves and reduce credit, resulting in a decrease in the amount of money in circulation. So the central bank can receive the right signal to firmly implement monetary policy. However, due to the influence of policy and non policy factors, that is, exogenous factors, the money supply will also change, so the central bank should prevent the misinterpretation of its own policies by accepting non economic signals [4]

Impact Introduction

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Generally speaking, central bank The banknotes issued are highly liquid and monetary, and can be directly used as Means of circulation And payment means enter the circulation process, thus affecting Market supply and demand Changes. commercial bank Of Current deposit , because it can be withdrawn and issued at any time Check As it enters the circulation, its liquidity is also very strong, and it is also an important factor affecting the change of market supply and demand. Some assets, such as Time deposit Savings deposit Wait, although it is purchasing power But they must be converted into cash, or demand deposits, or withdrawn in advance to enter the market to buy goods, so their liquidity is relatively poor, and their impact on the market is not as rapid as cash and demand deposits.

Hierarchical division

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The central bank generally divides the money supply into different levels according to the needs of macro monitoring and macro-control and the size of liquidity. China's current monetary statistics system divides the money supply into three levels:
1. Cash in circulation (M0) refers to the sum of cash on hand of a unit and cash held by residents. "Unit" refers to enterprises, organs, groups, troops, schools and other units outside the banking system.
2. The narrow sense of money supply (M1) refers to M0 plus the demand deposit that the unit can write a check in the bank for payment.
3. The broad money supply (M2) refers to M1 plus fixed deposits of units in banks, various savings deposits of urban and rural residents in banks and customer deposits of securities companies. Among them, since July 2001, the People's Bank of China has included customer deposits of securities companies in the broad money supply M2.
Divide the level of money supply according to the liquidity standard central bank It has two meanings:
On the one hand, it provides the structure chart of money supply, which is conducive to the division of money supply levels for the central bank Macro finance Decision making provides a clear money supply structure chart, which helps to grasp different money operation situations and take different measures to regulate accordingly.
On the other hand, analyze the dynamic changes of the economy Monetary hierarchy The division method is helpful for the central bank to analyze the dynamic changes of the whole economy. Each level of money supply has a specific economic activity Corresponding to the commodity movement, the central bank can grasp the status of economic activities and analyze and predict the trend of changes by observing the changes of money supply at all levels.

Comparison between China and the United States

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China

Money supply at all levels of the People's Bank of China (2011)
Since the third quarter of 1994 People's Bank of China The statistical monitoring indicators of money supply will be released to the public on a quarterly basis. Referring to the international general principles and according to the actual situation of China, the People's Bank of China divides China's money supply indicators into the following five levels:
M0: cash in circulation;
M1: M0+enterprises Current deposit +Deposits of organs, organizations and troops+ Rural savings +Credit card deposits held by individuals;
M2: M1+urban and rural residents Savings deposit + Enterprise deposits Fixed deposit in+ Foreign currency deposit +Trust deposits;
M4: M4=M3+other short-term current assets.
Wherein, M1 is commonly referred to as Narrow money Volume, high liquidity, national central bank Key regulated objects. M2 is Broad money The difference between M2 and M1 is Quasi currency , weak liquidity; M3 was established in consideration of the current situation of financial innovation, which has not been measured yet.
stay market economy Under these conditions, the role of financial macro-control is increasingly obvious. As a central bank People's Bank of China The ultimate purpose of its monetary policy is to maintain the stability of the value of the RMB, which means that the central bank's analysis and judgment of economic and financial trends, adjustment and implementation of monetary policy analysis index system will undergo significant changes. In order to achieve this goal, the macro regulation of the People's Bank of China should focus on total amount control and structural adjustment, and focus on total amount control.
To control the total amount is to control the money supply of the entire banking system. The growth of money supply must be compatible with economic growth in order to promote the sustained, rapid and healthy development of the national economy. Therefore, to analyze whether the money supply at all levels in a certain stage is reasonable, it must be related to the economic growth rate at that time and the speed of money circulation. Generally speaking, the main indicator to measure whether the money supply is balanced is price level Is basically stable. General price index A large change indicates that money supply and demand are unbalanced, and vice versa.
In this sense, the money supply is also related to ordinary people Economic index Its quantity and degree affect the running speed of the national economy and determine the value of the currency in hand.

U.S.A

Since the 1970s, the United States has modified the indicators of money supply at different levels for many times in the face of the fact that various credit circulation tools are increasing and the financial situation is changing. By the 1980s, the information released was:
M [1A]=cash in circulation+current deposit
M [1B]=M [1A]+Transferable deposit receipt +Automatic transfer Service deposit certificate+ credit Association stock+mutual savings bank Current deposit
M2=M1B+ commercial bank Overnight Repurchase agreement + Eurodollar Overnight deposit+ Money market mutual fund Shares+all deposits Savings deposit And small Time deposit
M3=M2+ Certificate of Deposit (Above RMB 100000)+time repurchase agreement+time Eurodollar deposit
The division of monetary volume in Japan is different from that in the United States, central bank The control center of gravity is also very different. The division method is as follows:
M1=cash+current deposit
M2=M1+enterprise fixed deposit
M1+CD=M1+transferable deposit receipt
M2+C=M1+ Time deposit +Negotiable certificate of deposit
M3=M2+CD+deposits of post office, agricultural association, fishery association, credit portfolio and labor treasury+ Trust deposit
The above division of monetary volume in the United States and Japan takes into account both the liquidity of money and their own countries banking system financial structure Status of financial business.
Quasi money supply=M2-M1 [5]

Regulation mechanism

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central bank The regulation mechanism of money supply, also known as central bank finance Macro control mechanism , which means that the central bank controls the money supply and other Macro finance Variable Monetary policy tools And through monetary policy tools Intermediate indicators of monetary policy And then through the intermediary indicators of monetary policy to achieve its policy objectives and a complete system of various important tasks.
No matter what kind of social system and Economic management system Although there are differences in the strength and breadth of regulation by central banks in various countries, there are obvious similarities in the general model of their regulation systems, which can be illustrated.
However, it must be pointed out that as far as this general model is concerned, it is still impossible to distinguish the specific contents and different characteristics of different types of central bank financial macro-control models, and even the same country may not adopt the same model in different periods. According to the general classification, it can be divided into three types: direct type, indirect type and mixed type.

Direct type

Direct type
When a country adopts a direct management system for the macro-economy, the financial macro-control of the central bank can only be in the form of using index management and administrative orders, through mandatory Mandatory plan And administrative means to directly control the cash flow and the total amount of loans in the banking system, so as to achieve the ultimate goal of monetary policy. The former Soviet Union, some countries in Eastern Europe and China have all adopted the planned indicator control model before 1979.
All socialist countries economic system This model has been adopted before. Practice has proved that this model is closely related to the highly centralized economic model Under the direct control of the economic system based on physical management. Under this system, central bank Across the country financial system The leading position of Specialized bank And other non bank financial institutions have strong dependence on the Central Bank. In this case, the use of mandatory plans and administrative means to control the money supply can usually achieve the desired results. because Mandatory plan Once formulated, the central bank will use administrative means to enforce. Therefore, as long as the Central Bank does not break through the plan and increase the allocation Credit funds , not forced monetary issue Then, the national money supply will not exceed the predetermined target. However, with the transition of economic system from planned to market-oriented, the shortcomings exposed by this direct regulation mode are more and more obvious, which is not conducive to fully maintaining the autonomy of the majority of grass-roots banks and the enthusiasm of the majority of employees; Not conducive to full play credit The role of interest rate leverage in effectively regulating the economy; Because the management method is rigid, sometimes it will cause economic fluctuations and decision-making mistakes, and in the process of solving problems, it is easy to appear "one size fits all", "one control is dead, one release is chaos" and other ills.

Indirect

occident capitalist country Since the 1950s, most of them have adopted this model. According to China Economic system reform With the deepening objective requirement, the transition of economic operation from direct control to indirect control is a historical necessity.
Indirect
The characteristics of indirect regulation are that the economic system it depends on is developed Market economy system There must be a relatively large and well-developed financial market central bank In use economic means While carrying out macro-control, it does not exclude the possibility of direct control by administrative means under special circumstances; Respecting the micro Financial subject Autonomy; Better inhibition economic fluctuation The buffering effect of.

Transitional type

Transitional regulation mode generally refers to the mode of transition from direct type to indirect type. developing country This mode is generally adopted. Although some countries adopt the market economy system, due to their low level of commodity economy development, underdeveloped financial markets, and financial and foreign exchange deficit And serious inflation It is also necessary to take some direct measures to control the economy.
Transitional type
The economic management system of our country has transited from the traditional direct management system to the combination of direct management and indirect management Dual management system For the operation of the national economy, the state uses both economic means and planned administrative means. Especially when the macro control is out of control, some direct control measures will achieve faster results. But in the long run, according to the requirements of the development law of the market economy, central bank It is an inevitable trend to adopt indirect financial macro-control mode. Therefore, the central bank's regulation of money supply will play an increasingly important role in macroeconomic balance.

form

The regulation mechanism of money supply is a complex complex organically linked and interacted by various internal factors. To illustrate the problem, its composition can be analyzed in the following three levels:
1. Regulators.
There are three main bodies of the whole money supply regulation mechanism: first central bank Second commercial bank Third, non bank economic sectors.
Regulators
According to the different functions of each subject, we might as well call the central bank the initiator, because the central bank supplies commercial bank Base currency (also called initial currency) determines the scale of the operation of the entire regulation mechanism. Here, it is based on Last Lender The identity of appears. The commercial banks are called the amplification subjects because central bank After the base currency is loaned into the commercial bank, through the multiple amplification effect in the commercial banking system, it will create multiple times of the original currency Deposit currency For non bank economic sectors. Here, it appears as a direct borrower. The non bank economic sector is called the target subject, because the whole process of the central bank providing the initial currency to the commercial banks will then generate a multiplier effect in the commercial banking system, and the ultimate goal is to supply the non bank economic sector with an appropriate amount of money, Of course, we cannot deny that the behavior of non bank economic sectors has an impact on the operation of the whole money supply regulation mechanism.
2. Basic factors.
There are also three basic factors in the regulation mechanism of money supply: first, the base currency, and second Excess reserve The third is the money supply.
Basic factors
stay central bank Under the system, the central bank provides commercial bank Holding multiple amplification effect
Deductions by commercial banks Deposit reserve After (statutory reserve), the excess reserve has been formed, and through its repeated use in the entire commercial banking system, it will produce a multiplier effect, making Central bank liabilities , through the commercial banking system Asset business After use, it becomes a few yuan of commercial bank debt. The enlarged bank liabilities in the commercial banking system, together with some cash provided by the central bank to the public, constitute the entire money supply, which is provided to non bank economic sectors.
From the above analysis, we can see that basic money is a prerequisite for money supply. To control the money supply, we must limit the base currency within a reasonable range. The size of excess reserve is commercial bank The constraints of credit expansion capacity within the system. The whole money supply is the expansion capacity of basic money and credit (i.e Monetary multiplier )The product of. It can be seen that in the regulation mechanism of money supply, "basic money"—— Excess reserve The important role of the three basic factors, namely, money supply, and its multiplier effect, cannot be ignored.
3. Several Financial variables.
Specifically: statutory deposit Reserve ratio, excess reserve ratio Time deposit Ratio, cash ratio, etc. These factors act on the multiple amplification effect. As shown in Figure 1-7.
Here: (1) The statutory deposit reserve ratio refers to the amount paid by commercial banks as required central bank That part of the deposit in the same place Deposit taking Ratio; (2) Excess reserve ratio refers to the ratio that commercial banks hold and do not apply to Asset business Provisions and Current deposit Ratio; (3) The term deposit ratio refers to the ratio of time deposits to demand deposits; (4) Cash ratio refers to the ratio of cash held by non bank economic sectors to demand deposits. Among the above financial variables, the sodium subject to the behavior of the central bank is (1); Be subject to commercial bank The behavior is (2); The behaviors of non bank economic sectors are restricted by (3) and (4).
Several financial variables
Based on the above three levels of analysis, the components of the money supply regulation mechanism are integrated as follows:
It must be noted that the above composition of the money supply regulation mechanism is only considered from a static perspective. If time variables and profit factors are introduced, the actual operation process will be more complex.

Expanding approach

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From the definition of money supply, we can see that there are two ways to expand the money supply: one is to increase the base money, and the other is to increase the money multiplier.

Add Base Currency

There are three main items:
(1) From the monetary authority asset side, increase the use of domestic assets, that is, increase Refinancing The scale of rediscount, especially for those in urgent need of funds Small and medium-sized financial institutions , which can affect the increase of base currency from the asset side.
(2) Expand currency issuance. In the base currency, money issuance accounts for nearly 50%, so increasing money issuance is an effective way to expand the base currency and thus increase the money supply (M1, M2). At present, China's economic surplus is by no means a surplus under the condition of highly developed economy, far from the extent that there are too many things to use. In fact, there is a huge gap in construction funds, and the potential consumption Investment demand There is still a lot of room. It can be matched by issuing money Expansionary fiscal policy To solve problems in economic development. At the same time, in order to expand currency issuance, some state-owned enterprises can also be written off commercial bank To help financial institutions resolve their bad debts Financial risk Set up SME loan guarantee fund as soon as possible to eliminate financial institutions' worries about SME lending, so as to expand the loan scale and make the fund allocation more optimized and effective.
(3) Increase Open market operation intensity. Purchase by central bank bond One of the conditions to spit out the base currency is that the bond market is constantly expanding, so that the open market operation has a good focus.

Increase currency multiplier

There are four main items:
Increase currency multiplier
(1) By reducing or even canceling Deposit reserve ratio To force financial institutions to lend more actively and speed up the reduction Provision rate Level, thereby increasing the monetary multiplier.
(2) Change the practice of freezing subscription funds for several days, and eliminate the impact of new share subscription on base currency and Bank reserve Adverse effects of management. Theoretically, the verification of new share subscription funds does not require the transfer of funds from other places or freezing for several days, as long as there is real funds in the new share subscription account at a certain time point of capital verification. Therefore, we should improve the way of centralized capital verification, let all securities settlement banks or branches open accounts in the local People's Bank of China's business department, and use the online system of the People's Bank of China's business department to carry out local capital verification of securities subscription funds. The capital information should be centralized to exchange Make a subscription. At the same time, in order not to affect Financial system The time for freezing subscription funds should be as short as possible, or even shortened to almost one time point. After the national unified capital verification, the possibility of repeated subscription of subscription funds no longer exists, so the funds can be unfrozen immediately after the completion of capital verification. Capital after winning new shares delivery Can be formulated separately Closing date In this way, the pressure on bank reserve management will be greatly reduced, Excess reserve ratio The base currency will not be affected by the decline and the expansion of the monetary multiplier. Ways to expand money supply
(3) Improvements Financial system And increase financial instruments conducive to circulation and trading, so as to give full play to the intermediary Function, which can speed up Velocity of money circulation , reduce monetary precipitation; It also helps to reduce cash leakage rate So as to improve the money multiplier and increase the money supply.
(4) When necessary, you can continue to take strong medicine and lower it Legal reserve ratio To effectively improve the monetary multiplier.

structural reform

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Undeniably, no matter how low deposit Reserve ratio, or application Refinancing Rediscount , open market operation, etc. are regarded as "powerful drugs" in market-oriented countries, and the results will lead to Commercial bank credit However, this only provides the necessary conditions for expanding the money supply. The current problem is that financial institutions are not short of funds Deposit loan difference Gradual expansion is a proof. Therefore, if financial institutions are still reluctant to lend and cautious about lending, the original intention of expanding the money supply will not become a reality. To this end, in addition to adopting monetary policy measures, we still need to take greater steps in institutional reform
1. Perfect Environment for independent operation of financial institutions
At present, China's financial institutions, especially state-owned ones commercial bank business environment It is decided that it has not yet fully realized its independent operation, and there is also the intervention of governments at all levels on commercial banks. As a result, commercial banks can not give full play to their intermediary functions, and at the same time, commercial banks have a certain dependence psychology, lacking the motivation to innovate and pursue benefits.
2. The constraint mechanism and incentive mechanism should be parallel
In recent years, due to the strengthening of the bank's risk awareness and internal control system, as well as the establishment of a strong constraint mechanism, the lender must be responsible for the results of its actions; However, the corresponding incentive mechanism has not been formed, no loan, no responsibility, and no impact on income“ economic man ”The bank people are "willing to idle funds rather than lend money" because of their reason. Therefore, in the current situation, on the one hand commercial bank Internally, the assessment of bankers should not only focus on the security of loans, but also on their ability to create benefits. The two should complement each other; On the other hand, under the current system, commercial banks should not only have the requirements for risk prevention, but also Benefit indicators Requirements.
3. A well-developed money market
Money supply
money market The main function of Social funds The realization of this function depends on at least three prerequisites: first, market coverage. The more supply and demand entities the market contains, the more transactions Turnover rate The higher, the best allocation of funds can be achieved. The unified and open currency market transaction must become the main channel of currency transaction, and its transaction scale should be large enough to reflect the trend and level of money supply and demand in the whole society. To achieve this, all financial institutions operating monetary products should be incorporated into the organized market trading network as far as possible, that is, the market should be compatible with banks and Non bank financial institutions Second, asset accommodation. The money market should change the situation of a single trading instrument and provide a variety of transaction mode And sufficient transaction varieties for financial institutions asset structure And term mobility Management provides convenience. Third, use safety. Monetary transactions should also adhere to the "three fairness" principle of fairness, justice and openness. Credit among trading members should be known and reliable. The credit chain should be stable and sustainable. Market capital flows and transactions should be completely within the vision of the regulatory authorities. The market should establish and improve the transaction specification system. The essence of the money market is Credit transaction Good credit environment is the foundation of market development. Therefore, when developing the money market, we should pay attention to the cultivation of the concept of credit, such as the establishment of information disclosure and regular disclosure system , increase transaction transparency, establish a series of market norms, etc. In this way, with a relatively complete money market, monetary policy Can be fully used.

Effectiveness

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As China Intermediate target of monetary policy There is no unified model for the choice of intermediate targets of monetary policy. After the 1980s, financial innovation made the concept of money supply vague, and many countries chose interest rate as the intermediary target of monetary policy. 1996 People's Bank of China hold
Money supply
Money supply as China's monetary policy Of Intermediary target Taking the money supply as the intermediate target of monetary policy has strong measurability, controllability and high correlation with the final target. Since 1996 People's Bank of China Since taking the money supply as the intermediary target of China's monetary policy, the overall correlation between the money supply and the macro-economy has been strengthened, and China's economy has grown steadily and rapidly. Some scholars do not think so. They believe that the money supply is no longer suitable as the intermediary target of China's monetary policy, but other financial variables should be used as the intermediary target. The first reason is that the basic money supply is difficult to control and the money multiplier is unstable, so the money supply is less controllable and declining. Second, the velocity of China's currency circulation has declined in the short term Money demand function Because of instability, the correlation between money quantity and price and output has been weakened, so money supply is no longer suitable as the intermediary target of monetary policy.
In fact, monetary multiplier is highly predictable. Since the base currency is basically controllable, it can be fully considered that China's money supply is highly controllable, that is, the base currency is regulated on the basis of forecasting the money multiplier, so as to regulate the money supply. In terms of controllability, money supply is also effective as the intermediary target of China's monetary policy.
There is a strong correlation between China's money supply and economic growth, and the money supply is controllable. Therefore, it is reasonable to believe that the money supply, as the intermediary target of China's monetary policy, is still effective at this stage.

Cause analysis

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Since the reform and opening up in 1978, China's economy has grown geometrically and its economic scale has continued to expand. In 2009, China became the second largest economy in the world. With the continuous expansion of the economic scale, the market currency circulation has gradually increased. Especially under the influence of the financial crisis, China launched an investment plan of 4 trillion yuan and a plan to revitalize ten major industries, which led to the excessive growth of China's money supply M2. By the end of June 2012, China's broad money supply balance, which is often referred to as M2, was 92.5 trillion yuan.
We take 1990, when China's economy was relatively mature, as the base period to compare and analyze the money supply of China and the United States.
From the founding of the People's Republic of China to 1990, the M2 balance of China's broad money supply was 1.53 trillion yuan; By the end of June 2012, China's M2 had reached 92.5 trillion, an increase of nearly 60 times in just 22 years, equivalent to about 14.5 trillion US dollars. In 1990, the broad money supply of the United States was 3.28 trillion yuan, and by the end of June 2012, the M2 balance was 9.99 trillion yuan, an increase of more than twice. Through comparison, it is found that China's money supply has grown by 46% more than that of the United States in the past 22 years, but its economic aggregate is only half of that of the United States, indicating that China's money supply is far greater than the needs of the real economy. In nominal terms, China's RMB is not undervalued, but overvalued. Now let's focus on what causes China M2 Such a large-scale growth.
Monetary theory tells us that money is created by banks: first, the central bank creates basic money. The base currency can come from the reserves paid by commercial banks, the cash in circulation, or the central bank's purchase of government bonds, foreign exchange, etc. The central bank regulates the base currency through monetary instruments such as re lending, re discounting and adjusting the statutory reserve ratio; Secondly, commercial banks create deposit money. For example, when the central bank Deposit reserve ratio When the value is 20% (R), enterprise A deposits 100000 yuan (D) into the bank, and the bank must deposit 20000 yuan into the central bank. 80000 yuan can be lent to enterprise B, and enterprise B pays 80000 yuan to enterprise C. Enterprise C deposits the 80000 yuan into the bank, and the bank deposits 16000 yuan into the central bank, and can lend 64000 yuan... In this way, in theory, the bank creates D/R, that is, 500000 yuan of currency. Therefore, the money creation multiplier is the reciprocal of the deposit reserve ratio. The higher the deposit reserve ratio, the smaller the money creation multiplier.
It is obviously difficult to be convincing to use this model to explain such a large money supply in China. I think the large-scale growth of M2 in China is completed in stages, which can be roughly divided into three stages:
China's accession World Trade Organization (WTO) post export oriented industrial policy, foreign trade surplus led to a large number of foreign exchange reserves, and foreign exchange management was still the first Compulsory foreign exchange settlement and sales system As a result, a large amount of basic money was put into use and the M2 balance increased sharply through the bank's creative function. Although the central bank has increased the reserve ratio and issued central bank bills for hedging operations, due to the timeliness of hedging, 5.5 trillion yuan of currency has not been offset. This 5.5 trillion yuan of base currency is one of the essential reasons for China's M2 expansion through the money creation function of banks.
In 2008, the world experienced the subprime crisis in the United States. China launched a 4 trillion yuan investment plan, ten major industrial revitalization plans, which led local governments to borrow heavily from banks through local financing platforms, using land and other assets as collateral, thus the growth rate of China's M2 jumped from 17.8% in 2008 to 27.7%, accelerating the substantial growth of the broad monetary balance M2.
The urbanization of China and the bidding, auction and listing of land make the land capitalization rate higher and higher. The national land transfer revenue reached 1.4 trillion yuan in 2009, 2.9 trillion yuan in 2010, and an astonishing 3.3 trillion yuan in 2011, accounting for more than 70% of the local government's fiscal revenue.
Today, when the balance of the broad money supply M2 is so large, the real wealth of residents is actually in a shrinking channel, wealth Constant dilution and inflation. How to win inflation and M2, maintain and increase the value of assets, and ensure the purchasing power of money is a hot topic of public concern. To achieve this goal, the key is to select a good investment target.

Data list

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Oriental Fortune has complete and latest information. The above is the website link. You can check if you need it, as well as other macro caliber data.
Currency and quasi currency (M2)
Currency (M1)
Cash in circulation (M0)
time
Quantity (100 million yuan)
Month on month growth
Quantity (100 million yuan)
Month on month growth
Quantity (100 million yuan)
Month on month growth
April 2014
one million one hundred and sixty-eight thousand and eight hundred
0.70%
three hundred and twenty-four thousand and five hundred
-0.98%
fifty-eight thousand and six hundred
0.51%
March 2014
one million one hundred and sixty thousand and seven hundred
2.55%
three hundred and twenty-seven thousand and seven hundred
3.51%
fifty-eight thousand and three hundred
-6.42%
February 2014
one million one hundred and thirty-one thousand and eight hundred
0.74%
three hundred and sixteen thousand and six hundred
0.54%
sixty-two thousand and three hundred
-18.56%
January 2014
one million one hundred and twenty-three thousand and five hundred
1.54%
three hundred and fourteen thousand and nine hundred
-6.64%
seventy-six thousand and five hundred
30.55%
December 2013
one million one hundred and six thousand and five hundred
2.52%
three hundred and thirty-seven thousand and three hundred
3.85%
fifty-eight thousand and six hundred
3.90%
November 2013
one million seventy-nine thousand and three hundred
0.85%
three hundred and twenty-four thousand and eight hundred
1.69%
fifty-six thousand and four hundred
1.44%
October 2013
one million seventy thousand and two hundred
-0.67%
three hundred and nineteen thousand and four hundred
2.27%
fifty-five thousand and six hundred
-1.59%
September 2013
one million seventy-seven thousand and four hundred
1.53%
three hundred and twelve thousand and three hundred
-0.57%
fifty-six thousand and five hundred
2.91%
August 2013
one million sixty-one thousand and two hundred
0.84%
three hundred and fourteen thousand and one hundred
1.13%
fifty-four thousand and nine hundred
0.92%
July 2013
one million fifty-two thousand and four hundred
-0.20%
three hundred and ten thousand and six hundred
-0.96%
fifty-four thousand and four hundred
0.37%
June 2013
one million fifty-four thousand and five hundred
1.19%
three hundred and thirteen thousand and six hundred
1.10%
fifty-four thousand and two hundred
-0.18%
May 2013
one million forty-two thousand and one hundred
0.92%
three hundred and ten thousand and two hundred
0.85%
fifty-four thousand and three hundred
-2.34%
April 2013
one million thirty-two thousand and six hundred
-0.34%
three hundred and seven thousand and six hundred
-1.16%
fifty-five thousand and six hundred
-0.18%
March 2013
one million thirty-six thousand and one hundred
3.76%
three hundred and eleven thousand and two hundred
5.10%
fifty-five thousand and seven hundred
-7.63%
February 2013
nine hundred and ninety-eight thousand and six hundred
0.66%
two hundred and ninety-six thousand and one hundred
-4.88%
sixty thousand and three hundred
-3.52%
January 2013
nine hundred and ninety-two thousand and one hundred
1.84%
three hundred and eleven thousand and three hundred
0.84%
sixty-two thousand and five hundred
14.26%
December 2012
nine hundred and seventy-four thousand and two hundred
3.11%
three hundred and eight thousand and seven hundred
3.97%
fifty-four thousand and seven hundred
4.39%
November 2012
nine hundred and forty-four thousand and eight hundred
0.90%
two hundred and ninety-six thousand and nine hundred
1.23%
fifty-two thousand and four hundred
1.75%
October 2012
nine hundred and thirty-six thousand and four hundred
-0.77%
two hundred and ninety-three thousand and three hundred
2.27%
fifty-one thousand and five hundred
-3.56%
September 2012
nine hundred and forty-three thousand and seven hundred
2.03%
two hundred and eighty-six thousand and eight hundred
0.39%
fifty-three thousand and four hundred
6.37%
August 2012
nine hundred and twenty-four thousand and nine hundred
0.63%
two hundred and eighty-five thousand and seven hundred
4.50%
fifty thousand and two hundred
1.01%
July 2012
nine hundred and nineteen thousand and one hundred
-0.64%
two hundred and eighty-three thousand and one hundred
-1.53%
forty-nine thousand and seven hundred
0.81%
June 2012
nine hundred and twenty-five thousand
2.78%
two hundred and eighty-seven thousand and five hundred
3.19%
forty-nine thousand and three hundred
0.61%
May 2012
nine hundred thousand
1.17%
two hundred and seventy-eight thousand and six hundred
1.31%
forty-nine thousand
-2.39%
April 2012
eight hundred and eighty-nine thousand and six hundred
-0.67 %
two hundred and seventy-five thousand
-1.08 %
fifty thousand and two hundred
1.21 %
March 2012
eight hundred and ninety-five thousand and six hundred
3.28 %
two hundred and seventy-eight thousand
2.84 %
forty-nine thousand and six hundred
-3.59 %
February 2012
eight hundred and sixty-seven thousand one hundred and seventy-seven point six three
1.32 %
two hundred and seventy thousand three hundred and twelve point eight nine
0.11 %
fifty-one thousand four hundred and forty-nine point zero six
-13.99 %
January 2012
eight hundred and fifty-five thousand eight hundred and ninety-eight point eight nine
0.51 %
two hundred and seventy thousand and ten point four zero
-6.84 %
fifty-nine thousand eight hundred and twenty point seven two
17.88 %
December 2011
eight hundred and fifty-one thousand five hundred and ninety point nine zero
3.16 %
two hundred and eighty-nine thousand eight hundred and forty-seven point seven zero
3.00 %
fifty thousand seven hundred and forty-eight point four six
7.25 %
November 2011
eight hundred and twenty-five thousand four hundred and ninety-three point nine four
1.06 %
two hundred and eighty-one thousand four hundred and sixteen point three seven
1.76 %
forty-seven thousand three hundred and seventeen point two six
1.58 %
October 2011
eight hundred and sixteen thousand eight hundred and twenty-nine point two five
3.74 %
two hundred and seventy-six thousand five hundred and fifty-two point six seven
3.50 %
forty-six thousand five hundred and seventy-nine point three nine
-1.20 %
September 2011
seven hundred and eighty-seven thousand four hundred and six point two zero
0.84 %
two hundred and sixty-seven thousand one hundred and ninety-three point one six
-2.27 %
forty-seven thousand one hundred and forty-five point two nine
2.99 %
August 2011
seven hundred and eighty thousand eight hundred and fifty-two point three zero
1.03 %
two hundred and seventy-three thousand three hundred and ninety-three point seven seven
1.05 %
forty-five thousand seven hundred and seventy-five point two nine
1.31 %
July 2011
seven hundred and seventy-two thousand nine hundred and twenty-three point six five
-1.01 %
two hundred and seventy thousand five hundred and forty-five point six five
-1.50 %
forty-five thousand one hundred and eighty-three point one zero
1.59 %
June 2011
seven hundred and eighty thousand eight hundred and twenty point eight five
2.28 %
two hundred and seventy-four thousand six hundred and sixty-two point five seven
2.00 %
forty-four thousand four hundred and seventy-seven point eight zero
-0.28 %
May 2011
seven hundred and sixty-three thousand four hundred and nine point two two
0.80 %
two hundred and sixty-nine thousand two hundred and eighty-nine point six three
0.95 %
forty-four thousand six hundred and two point eight three
-1.95 %
April 2011
seven hundred and fifty-seven thousand three hundred and eighty-four point five six
-0.10 %
two hundred and sixty-six thousand seven hundred and sixty-six point nine one
0.19 %
forty-five thousand four hundred and eighty-nine point zero three
1.44 %
March 2011
seven hundred and fifty-eight thousand one hundred and thirty point eight eight
2.99 %
two hundred and sixty-six thousand two hundred and fifty-five point four eight
2.72 %
forty-four thousand eight hundred and forty-five point two two
-5.13 %
February 2011
seven hundred and thirty-six thousand one hundred and thirty point eight six
0.31 %
two hundred and fifty-nine thousand and two hundred point five zero
-0.98 %
forty-seven thousand two hundred and seventy point two four
-18.59 %
January 2011
seven hundred and thirty-three thousand eight hundred and eighty-four point eight three
1.11 %
two hundred and sixty-one thousand seven hundred and sixty-five point zero one
-1.82 %
fifty-eight thousand and sixty-three point nine four
30.11 %
December 2010
seven hundred and twenty-five thousand eight hundred and fifty-one point seven nine
2.18 %
two hundred and sixty-six thousand six hundred and twenty-one point five four
2.78 %
forty-four thousand six hundred and twenty-eight point one seven
5.62 %
November 2010
seven hundred and ten thousand three hundred and thirty-nine point zero three
1.51 %
two hundred and fifty-nine thousand four hundred and twenty point three two
2.41 %
forty-two thousand two hundred and fifty-two point one six
1.45 %
October 2010
six hundred and ninety-nine thousand seven hundred and seventy-six point seven four
0.47 %
two hundred and fifty-three thousand three hundred and thirteen point one seven
3.89 %
forty-one thousand six hundred and forty-six point two one
-0.50 %
September 2010
six hundred and ninety-six thousand four hundred and seventy-one point five zero
1.30 %
two hundred and forty-three thousand eight hundred and twenty-one point nine zero
-0.21 %
forty-one thousand eight hundred and fifty-four point four one
4.84 %
August 2010
six hundred and eighty-seven thousand five hundred and six point nine two
2.00 %
two hundred and forty-four thousand three hundred and forty point six four
1.53 %
thirty-nine thousand nine hundred and twenty-two point seven six
0.96 %
July 2010
six hundred and seventy-four thousand and fifty-one point four eight
0.02 %
two hundred and forty thousand six hundred and sixty-four point zero seven
0.03 %
thirty-nine thousand five hundred and forty-three point one six
1.64 %
June 2010
six hundred and seventy-three thousand nine hundred and twenty-one point seven two
1.59 %
two hundred and forty thousand five hundred and eighty
1.73 %
thirty-eight thousand nine hundred and four point eight five
0.65 %
May 2010
six hundred and sixty-three thousand three hundred and fifty-one point three seven
1.03 %
two hundred and thirty-six thousand four hundred and ninety-seven point eight eight
1.11 %
thirty-eight thousand six hundred and fifty-two point nine seven
-2.53 %
April 2010
six hundred and fifty-six thousand five hundred and sixty-one point two two
1.02 %
two hundred and thirty-three thousand nine hundred and nine point seven six
1.97 %
thirty-nine thousand six hundred and fifty-seven point five four
1.48 %
March 2010
six hundred and forty-nine thousand nine hundred and forty-seven point four six
2.18 %
two hundred and twenty-nine thousand three hundred and ninety-seven point nine three
2.28 %
thirty-nine thousand and eighty point five eight
-8.83 %
February 2010
six hundred and thirty-six thousand and seventy-two point two six
1.67 %
two hundred and twenty-four thousand two hundred and eighty-six point nine five
-2.31 %
forty-two thousand eight hundred and sixty-five point seven nine
5.17 %
January 2010
six hundred and twenty-five thousand six hundred and nine point two nine
2.52 %
two hundred and twenty-nine thousand five hundred and eighty-eight point nine eight
3.68 %
forty thousand seven hundred and fifty-eight point five eight
6.57 %
December 2009
six hundred and ten thousand two hundred and twenty-four point five two
2.63 %
two hundred and twenty-one thousand four hundred and forty-five point eight one
4.21 %
thirty-eight thousand two hundred and forty-six point nine seven
5.24 %
November 2009
five hundred and ninety-four thousand six hundred and four point seven two
1.36 %
two hundred and twelve thousand four hundred and ninety-three point two zero
2.38 %
thirty-six thousand three hundred and forty-three point eight six
1.72 %
October 2009
five hundred and eighty-six thousand six hundred and forty-three point two nine
1.72 %
two hundred and seven thousand five hundred and forty-five point seven four
3.57 %
thirty-five thousand seven hundred and thirty point two three
3.85 %
September 2009
five hundred and seventy-six thousand six hundred and ninety-eight point nine five
0.00 %
two hundred thousand three hundred and ninety-four point eight three
0.00 %
thirty-four thousand four hundred and six point six two
0.00 %
August 2009
five hundred and seventy-six thousand six hundred and ninety-eight point nine five
0.63 %
two hundred thousand three hundred and ninety-four point eight three
2.30 %
thirty-four thousand four hundred and six point six two
0.49 %
July 2009
five hundred and seventy-three thousand one hundred and two point eight five
0.74 %
one hundred and ninety-five thousand eight hundred and eighty-nine point two seven
1.42 %
thirty-four thousand two hundred and thirty-nine point three zero
1.78 %
June 2009
five hundred and sixty-eight thousand nine hundred and sixteen point two zero
3.77 %
one hundred and ninety-three thousand one hundred and thirty-eight point one five
6.10 %
thirty-three thousand six hundred and forty point nine eight
0.24 %
May 2009
five hundred and forty-eight thousand two hundred and sixty-three point five one
1.44 %
one hundred and eighty-two thousand and twenty-five point five eight
2.14 %
thirty-three thousand five hundred and fifty-nine point five two
-2.04 %
April 2009
five hundred and forty thousand four hundred and eighty-one point two one
1.86 %
one hundred and seventy-eight thousand two hundred and thirteen point five seven
0.95 %
thirty-four thousand two hundred and fifty-seven point two seven
1.51 %
March 2009
five hundred and thirty thousand six hundred and twenty-six point seven one
4.72 %
one hundred and seventy-six thousand five hundred and forty-one point one three
6.25 %
thirty-three thousand seven hundred and forty-six point four two
-3.97 %
February 2009
five hundred and six thousand seven hundred and eight point zero seven
2.13 %
one hundred and sixty-six thousand one hundred and forty-nine point six zero
0.57 %
thirty-five thousand one hundred and forty-one point six four
-14.46 %
January 2009
four hundred and ninety-six thousand one hundred and thirty-five point three one
4.41 %
one hundred and sixty-five thousand two hundred and fourteen point three four
-0.60 %
forty-one thousand and eighty-two point three seven
20.06 %
December 2008
four hundred and seventy-five thousand one hundred and sixty-six point six zero
3.60 %
one hundred and sixty-six thousand two hundred and seventeen point one three
5.32 %
thirty-four thousand two hundred and eighteen point nine six
8.26 %
November 2008
four hundred and fifty-eight thousand six hundred and forty-four point six six
1.22 %
one hundred and fifty-seven thousand eight hundred and twenty-six point six three
0.40 %
thirty-one thousand six hundred and seven point three six
0.92 %
October 2008
four hundred and fifty-three thousand one hundred and thirty-three point three two
0.05 %
one hundred and fifty-seven thousand one hundred and ninety-four point three six
0.93 %
thirty-one thousand three hundred and seventeen point eight four
-1.28 %
September 2008
four hundred and fifty-two thousand eight hundred and ninety-eight point seven one
0.90 %
one hundred and fifty-five thousand seven hundred and forty-eight point nine seven
-0.73 %
thirty-one thousand seven hundred and twenty-four point eight eight
2.83 %
August 2008
four hundred and forty-eight thousand eight hundred and forty-six point six eight
0.56 %
one hundred and fifty-six thousand eight hundred and eighty-nine point nine two
1.22 %
thirty thousand eight hundred and fifty-one point six two
0.54 %
July 2008
four hundred and forty-six thousand three hundred and sixty-two point one seven
0.73 %
one hundred and fifty-four thousand nine hundred and ninety-two point four four
0.11 %
thirty thousand six hundred and eighty-seven point one nine
1.68 %
June 2008
four hundred and forty-three thousand one hundred and forty-one point zero two
1.59 %
one hundred and fifty-four thousand eight hundred and twenty point one five
0.96 %
thirty thousand one hundred and eighty-one point three two
0.04 %
May 2008
four hundred and thirty-six thousand two hundred and twenty-one point six zero
1.61 %
one hundred and fifty-three thousand three hundred and forty-four point seven five
1.09 %
thirty thousand one hundred and sixty-nine point three zero
-2.01 %
April 2008
four hundred and twenty-nine thousand three hundred and thirteen point seven two
1.48 %
one hundred and fifty-one thousand six hundred and ninety-four point nine one
0.55 %
thirty thousand seven hundred and eighty-nine point six one
1.17 %
March 2008
four hundred and twenty-three thousand and fifty-four point five three
0.48 %
one hundred and fifty thousand eight hundred and sixty-seven point four seven
0.46 %
thirty thousand four hundred and thirty-three point zero seven
-6.23 %
February 2008
four hundred and twenty-one thousand and thirty-seven point eight four
0.76 %
one hundred and fifty thousand one hundred and seventy-seven point eight eight
-3.03 %
thirty-two thousand four hundred and fifty-four point four seven
-11.50 %
January 2008
four hundred and seventeen thousand eight hundred and forty-six point one seven
3.58 %
one hundred and fifty-four thousand eight hundred and seventy-two point five nine
1.54 %
thirty-six thousand six hundred and seventy-three point one five
20.90 %
December 2007
four hundred and three thousand four hundred and one point three zero
0.91 %
one hundred and fifty-two thousand five hundred and nineteen point one seven
3.05 %
thirty thousand three hundred and thirty-four point three two
4.64 %
November 2007
three hundred and ninety-nine thousand seven hundred and fifty-seven point nine one
1.41 %
one hundred and forty-eight thousand and nine point eight two
2.32 %
twenty-eight thousand nine hundred and eighty-seven point nine two
2.37 %
October 2007
three hundred and ninety-four thousand two hundred and four point one seven
0.28 %
one hundred and forty-four thousand six hundred and forty-nine point three three
1.44 %
twenty-eight thousand three hundred and seventeen point seven eight
-2.46 %
September 2007
three hundred and ninety-three thousand and ninety-eight point nine one
1.52 %
one hundred and forty-two thousand five hundred and ninety-one point five seven
1.13 %
twenty-nine thousand and thirty point five eight
4.34 %
August 2007
three hundred and eighty-seven thousand two hundred and five point zero four
0.86 %
one hundred and forty thousand nine hundred and ninety-three point two one
3.49 %
twenty-seven thousand eight hundred and twenty-two point three nine
1.82 %
July 2007
three hundred and eighty-three thousand eight hundred and eighty-four point eight eight
1.60 %
one hundred and thirty-six thousand two hundred and thirty-seven point four three
0.29 %
twenty-seven thousand three hundred and twenty-six point two six
1.66 %
June 2007
three hundred and seventy-seven thousand eight hundred and thirty-two point one five
2.19 %
one hundred and thirty-five thousand eight hundred and forty-seven point four zero
4.28 %
twenty-six thousand eight hundred and eighty-one point zero nine
0.57 %
May 2007
three hundred and sixty-nine thousand seven hundred and eighteen point one five
0.65 %
one hundred and thirty thousand two hundred and seventy-five point eight zero
2.03 %
twenty-six thousand seven hundred and twenty-seven point nine seven
-3.90 %
April 2007
three hundred and sixty-seven thousand three hundred and twenty-six point four five
0.88 %
one hundred and twenty-seven thousand six hundred and seventy-eight point three three
-0.16 %
twenty-seven thousand eight hundred and thirteen point eight eight
1.56 %
March 2007
three hundred and sixty-four thousand one hundred and four point six six
1.52 %
one hundred and twenty-seven thousand eight hundred and eighty-one point three one
1.29 %
twenty-seven thousand three hundred and eighty-seven point nine five
-10.58 %
February 2007
three hundred and fifty-eight thousand six hundred and fifty-nine point two five
2.04 %
one hundred and twenty-six thousand two hundred and fifty-eight point zero eight
-1.73 %
thirty thousand six hundred and twenty-seven point nine three
9.58 %
January 2007
three hundred and fifty-one thousand four hundred and ninety-eight point seven seven
1.71 %
one hundred and twenty-eight thousand four hundred and eighty-four point zero six
1.95 %
twenty-seven thousand nine hundred and forty-nine point one three
3.24 %
December 2006
three hundred and forty-five thousand five hundred and seventy-seven point nine one
2.39 %
one hundred and twenty-six thousand and twenty-eight point zero five
3.60 %
twenty-seven thousand and seventy-two point six two
6.05 %
November 2006
three hundred and thirty-seven thousand five hundred and four point one five
1.43 %
one hundred and twenty-one thousand six hundred and forty-four point nine five
2.78 %
twenty-five thousand five hundred and twenty-seven point two five
2.26 %
October 2006
three hundred and thirty-two thousand seven hundred and forty-seven point one seven
0.27 %
one hundred and eighteen thousand three hundred and fifty-nine point nine six
1.32 %
twenty-four thousand nine hundred and sixty-four point one six
-2.82 %
September 2006
three hundred and thirty-one thousand eight hundred and sixty-five point three six
1.21 %
one hundred and sixteen thousand eight hundred and fourteen point one zero
1.71 %
twenty-five thousand six hundred and eighty-seven point three eight
6.21 %
August 2006
three hundred and twenty-seven thousand eight hundred and eighty-five point six seven
1.20 %
one hundred and fourteen thousand eight hundred and forty-five point six seven
1.95 %
twenty-four thousand one hundred and eighty-five point three six
1.82 %
July 2006
three hundred and twenty-four thousand and ten point seven six
0.39 %
one hundred and twelve thousand six hundred and fifty-three point zero four
0.28 %
twenty-three thousand seven hundred and fifty-two point five nine
1.21 %
June 2006
three hundred and twenty-two thousand seven hundred and fifty-six point three five
1.91 %
one hundred and twelve thousand three hundred and forty-two point three six
2.86 %
twenty-three thousand four hundred and sixty-nine point zero eight
0.02 %
May 2006
three hundred and sixteen thousand seven hundred and nine point eight one
0.96 %
one hundred and nine thousand two hundred and nineteen point two two
2.66 %
twenty-three thousand four hundred and sixty-five point three two
-2.86 %
April 2006
three hundred and thirteen thousand seven hundred and two point three four
1.03 %
one hundred and six thousand three hundred and eighty-nine point one one
-0.33 %
twenty-four thousand one hundred and fifty-five point seven three
2.91 %
March 2006
three hundred and ten thousand four hundred and ninety point six five
1.96 %
one hundred and six thousand seven hundred and thirty-seven point zero eight
2.28 %
twenty-three thousand four hundred and seventy-two point zero three
-4.13 %

Current situation in China

Announce
edit

introduce

currency
According to the preliminary statistics released by the Central Bank on March 10, 2013, 620 billion yuan of new loans were added in February. At the end of February, China's money supply balance reached 99.86 trillion, approaching 100 trillion, ranking first in the world.
According to the preliminary statistics of the Central Bank, the scale of social financing in February was 1.07 trillion yuan, 22.8 billion yuan more than the same period in 2012. Among them, RMB loans in the current month increased by 620 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 90.7 billion yuan, 42% lower than that in January 2013.

reason

Bank of Communications chief economist Lian Ping According to the analysis, the decline of new loans in February was mainly due to the reduction of the actual working days of the month and the basic release of backlog projects at the end of last year in January; The high pressure on some bank deposits has also limited credit supply to a certain extent. New medium - and long-term corporate loans continue to be large, indicating that the economy continues to pick up moderately, corporate profit expectations have improved, and the current real economy credit The demand is relatively stable, and the credit increase will pick up significantly in March.