New Classical Economics can be divided into four stages.1、 First generation neoclassical schooleconomics(since 1870s);2、 Second generationNeoclassical economics(since 1970s);3、 New classical economics (since 1980s);4、 Comprehensive (since the end of the 20th century).
The systematic development of economics originates fromAdam Smith, viaDavid Ricardo、Sismondi、Muller、SaiAnd so on, gradually forming a classicEconomic TheorySystem, which is classical economics.After the 20th century, economic educationChamberlain Revolution、Keynesian revolution andRational Expectation RevolutionThe three major revolutionary changes, includingMicroeconomicsAnd the basic theoretical framework of macroeconomics, which is called Neoclassical Economics to distinguish it from the previous classical economics.Neoclassical economics reflects the research achievements and development characteristics of economics in the past 100 years intensively and fully, and pays more attention to research methodsFalsificationismThe generalization of, the diversification of assumptions, the mathematical and physical analysis of analytical tools, the non economization of research fields, the classic use of casesInterdisciplinaryOfMarginalization。
The Keynesian revolution made economics realize the distinction between micro analysis and macro analysis in terms of analytical methods, thus dividing economics intoMicroeconomicsandMacroeconomicsKeynes became the founder of modern macroeconomics.Keynes completed theoretical innovation, including: fundamentally overthrowing the classical economicsfull employment The Assumption of Equilibrium and Its Theoretical BasisSay's lawHe scientifically pointed out that under normal circumstances,Aggregate supplyThe balance with total demand is less than the balance of full employment, resulting inInvoluntary unemploymentAnd less thanfull employment The root of balance lies inEffective demandInsufficient, and the reason for insufficient effective demand lies inPropensity to consume、Liquidity preferenceAnd the expectation of future capital gains.According to this, Keynes proposed“demand management ”The policy recommendations emphasize that the government should adoptfiscal policyIncrease investment, stimulate the economy, make up for the lack of effective demand in the private market, so as to achieve full employment and eliminate the basis of unemployment and crisis.
Neoclassical economics
The revolution of rational expectations is represented by Lucas, also known as“Lucas Critique ”。It started the process of integration of micro economics and macro economics.The deductive logic is that money versus output, etcEconomic variablesIt has important influence: on the one handmoney supply Changes can lead toMoney stockAnd caused byeconomic fluctuation；On the other hand, because this fluctuation of the economy is completed through the aggregate demand curve, changes in the money supply will lead to changes in aggregate demand, and changes in aggregate demand will lead to economic fluctuations.So they scientifically pointed out thatmonetary policyFrom the perspective ofMarket Failure , also existsGovernment failure 。
Second generation neoclassical economics
Neoclassical Economics Books
Neoclassical economics(New Classical Economics) is a school formed in the 1970s to refine the previous Neoclassical Economics.Its theoretical framework consists of rational expectation hypothesis andHypothesis of natural unemployment rateform.The school advocatesmarket economyIt can automatically solve unemployment, depression and other problems, but the government led stability policy has no effect.In the case of unemployment andinflationThe dilemma ofMonetarismDifferent.
This school is sometimes called the Rational Expectation School because of its focus on rational expectations, but it cannot be regarded as a formal school name.
New Classical Economics
Neoclassical economics
Since the 1980s, Chinese economists in AustraliaYang XiaokaiAs a representative group of economists, using nonlinear programming and other non classical mathematical programming methodsspecializedThe brilliant economic thought of ", turned into a decision-making and equilibrium model, and set off an ideological trend of reviving classical economics with modern analytical tools.".For example, they reinterpreted Smith's theory of division of labor and its discussion on the causes of international trade based on the decision-making of individual specialization level and the evolution of the level of balanced division of labor.Their research aims to re scientifically find the micro mechanism of economic growth and establish a micro model of macroeconomic growth;They changed the definition of neoclassical economics on "economics is the knowledge of rational allocation of scarce resources among various economic uses" to "economics is the knowledge of various dilemmas and conflicts in economic activities". Its main task is to study the interaction between technology and economic organization and its evolution process.The new theory proposed by Yang Xiaokai and others has been more and more widely recognized, and gradually formed a new school of economics, which is called“New Classical Economics”(New Classical Economics) to distinguish it from Neoclassical Economics.
The fourth synthesis
In addition,economicsAt the end of the 20th century, represented by the new textbook of Economics published by American economist Stiglitz in 1993, the fourth synthesis began.Stiglitz's theoretical innovation lies in: First, the expression of macroeconomics is directly based on solid microeconomics, so as to achievePaul A. Samuelson The transcendence of economics;The second is to strengthen the awareness of information issues, incentive issues, moral issuesadverse choiceNew achievements and new developments have been made in the research of new topics such as "problems";Third, we should pay more attention to the positive role of government intervention in the economy. By relying on the government's regulation according to law, the market can effectively allocate resources.
The theoretical analysis of the bipolar world points out that the neoclassical economics, like the neoliberalism, belongs to the economic theory of the capitalist world system in the period of external expansion, which is produced against the backdrop of insufficient international effective demand.For western developed countriescapitalist countryAs far as it is concerned, its essence is to replace consumer welfare with employment welfare;For developing countries, it is to replace employment welfare with consumption welfare.[1]
representative figure
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Just as the crisis of classical economics is coming, someone suddenly realizes that the previous economic theories only emphasized production and cost, but ignored utility and demand.Therefore, the great tree of economics has branches: one branch takes Marx as an outstanding representative and continues to followLabor axiologyThis clue, with its unique wisdom and insight, has exposedcapitalist economyThe exploitative nature of the system calls on the proletariat to join the revolution and overthrowcapitalist systemWe should be familiar with these theories, so we don't need much space here.
Another branch is based on marginal utility theory andEquilibrium price theoryBased on neoclassical theory.
Sai (1767-1832), a Frenchman, was associated with the BritishRicardoThey are contemporaries, but their attitudes towards Smith's theory are quite differentLabor axiologyIt includes two aspects: first, the value of a commodity is determined by the labor consumed in producing the commodity;Second, the value of the commodity is determined by the labor that can be purchased and controlled by the commodity in exchange. On this basis, Smith further pointed out that the purchased products that can control labor are not all owned by workers. In addition to the wages that workers deserve, they should also paycapitalistGive profit to the landlordland rentTherefore, the value is composed of three incomes.Ricardo inherited the former and proposed the labor time decisioncommodity valueThe view of Marx's value theory has become the cornerstone of Marx's value theory.Sai inherited the latter, focusing onExchange valueThat is, from the perspective of price, it scientifically points out that the utility of goods is the basis of the value of goods."The so-called production is not to create material, but to create utility", "the value of commodity depends on its utility", and scientifically points out that the utility of commodity is created jointly by labor, capital and land.Based on the theory of three factors of production, Sai further established the distribution theory of the "three unity" (i.e. labor wage, capital interest, land rent) and the market theory of "supply will create demand by itself" (i.e“Say's law”）。This theory has had a great influence in the western economic circles for more than 100 yearslaissez-faire economy Until the 1930s“Keynesian revolution ”Has been replaced, which roughly means that the supply of goods is equal to that of producersMonetary income；Producers' monetary income is equal to their monetary expenditure, which inevitably leads to commodity demand.Therefore, commodity supply equals commodity demand, and the national economy will automatically achieve equilibrium.
Malthus (1766-1834), an Englishman, was a priest. Later, he lost his priesthood due to marriage and became a professor.It is known that Malthus was a famous population theorist, but in fact, he later shifted from population theory to economics.Here is a brief introduction to his population theory and economic theory.
About population theory.Malthus's population theory can be understood by the fable of tortoise and rabbit racing.He said that food is a necessity for human survival, and the growth of food can only be expressed in arithmetic progression, and becauseLaw of diminishing returnsThe food production on the land will grow more slowly, just like a creeping tortoise;The population growth isGeometric series(1, 2, 4, 8,...), just like a rabbit running wildly, human society will inevitably suffer unemployment and poverty caused by overpopulation. Malthus's solution to this contradiction is cruel.He said: "If a person born in the occupied world cannot get food and clothing from his parents, and the society does not need his labor, then he has no right to ask for the minimum amount of food. There is no seat for him at the grand feast of nature, and nature will ask him to leave.".This is the embodiment of Darwin's theory of biological evolution in human beings.Therefore, Malthus's population theory was criticized and attacked by many people as soon as it came out.When China needed to control its population, it put Malthus in the "enemy" camp, and naturally could not accept his theory. In less than 30 years, China became the world's most populous country.
Neoclassical economics
About economic theory.There is a story about Malthus's fame in economics.Malthus and Ricardo were British contemporaries. At that time, Ricardo was a leading figure in the economic circle. But in his later years, he suddenly found that there was a contradiction in his theory (that is, the“Law of value"And profit" and "the law of value andAverage profitContradiction "), it was not easy to overthrow his theory, and he was worried all day long. Later, he thought of Malthus and told him his idea. However, Malthus soon exposed the contradiction under an alias, and Ricardo died in anger.At this time, Malthus came out to admit that he wrote the article. Malthus became famous overnight. But later, when Ricardo's students were sorting out his materials, they found that Ricardo's diary just recorded the fact that he found Malthus, which led to some people's attacks on Malthus's character.Marx criticized Malthus as a "villain".Malthus's theory is mainly aimed at the contradiction in Ricardo's theory, thus denying the law of labor value and proposingEffective demandInadequate theory (this theory became the basis of Keynes' theory later).
John Mueller (1806-1873), an Englishman, is the most representative economist in the transition period of economics from classicism to neoclassicism. His economic theory is a comprehensive eclecticism system, and his economic works《principles of political economy》It is the first popular textbook since the emergence of economics, which was popular from 1848 to 1890, roughly equivalent to the period when Marx settled in London.Therefore, it can be said that he is a person who has no outstanding economic views and has to be concerned.
Around 1870, the neoclassical school officially broke away from classical economics and proposed“marginal utility Theory "and“Equilibrium price theory”, opening up a new field for economic research.The following two are representatives of this period.
Pombavik (1851-1914), an Austrian,Austrian SchoolThe school is based onMarginal utility theory of valueIt is also calledMarginal utility school。It is necessary to understand“limit”This word is generally understood as "added" or "extra". For example, when eating the second piece of bread, you will get a different effect from eating the first piece of bread. This added effect is called“marginal utility ”。Pombavik's economic theory mainly includes marginal utility theory andtime preference theory 。
On marginal utility theory.This theory has three main points:
First, whether an item is valuable depends on the subjective evaluation of the item.
Second, the subjective evaluation of the value of goods is conditional on the scarcity of goods.
Third, the final value of an article is determined by its marginal utility quantity. He pointed out that the least important needed utility is the marginal utility.According to the above three conditions, he came to the conclusion that "the quantity of goods is inversely proportional to the value of goods. The more similar goods in the market, the smaller the value, and vice versa."
On the theory of time difference interest.His interest here includes capital interest, land rent, profit, etc. He divides goods into "present goods" and "future goods", and points out that the value of present goods and future goods will be different due to their different time, and "current goods are usually more valuable than the same kind and quantity of future goods".This theory is one of the most important“Time value of money”The theoretical basis of.
Marshall (1842-1924) was an Englishman.Marshall can be called a symbolic representative of the neoclassical school. His Principles of Economics published in 1890 became the second textbook in the economic field.In this book, he combines classical economics, the theories of Malthus and Say, John Muller, and the Austrian school represented by PombavikJavonsRepresented byMathematical school、VallasRepresented byLausanne SchoolThe theory ofSupply and demand theoryProduction cost theorymarginal utility TheoryMarginal productivity theoryOn the basis ofEquilibrium price theoryAs the core of the complete economic system, it has established a complete system of microeconomics, which has always occupied the main position. The basic system and theory of microeconomics introduced later are derived from this.Let's briefly introduce Marshall's equilibrium price theory and distribution theory.
On the theory of equilibrium price.He used marginal utility theory to explainDemand priceandLaw of demandThat is, "the quantity of demand increases with the decline of the price, and decreases with the rise of the price", which is explained by the marginal production cost theorySupply priceandLaw of supplyThat is, "supply is opposite to demand, high price leads to more supply, low price leads to less supply". Finally, he combines the law of demand and the law of supply to formequilibrium priceThe law is that "when the supply price is consistent with the demand price,requirementIf it is consistent with the supply quantity, it will form an equilibrium price. "He also explained it with curves.
About distribution theory.Marshall established the theory of distribution according to production factors on the basis of equilibrium price theory, and the price of production factors also depends on their respective equilibrium prices, which belong to the owners of labor, land, capital and enterprise organizations.[2]
Marginal Revolution
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analytical framework
meaning
First, it sublates the neoclassicalscale economyThe concept ofspecializedEconomy to characterize production conditions.
Second, it doesn'tPure consumerThe absolute separation from enterprises, while the neoclassical framework is completely divided between pure consumers and pure producers.
If you first come into contact with new classical economics, it is probably difficult to understand the meaning of this new analytical framework for economics, and thus to feel its charm personally.Let's start with the question: Why put forward this new analytical framework?The answer is simple. Some defects of the neoclassical analytical framework limit the development of economics.If we discuss the defects of the neoclassical analytical framework in an empty way, it may not be convincing.1977、paul krugman (Krugman, 1979) and the model of Fujita and Krugman (1995) to see what the defects of neoclassical analysis framework are and how the emerging classical analysis framework can overcome these defects.
features
New Classical EconomicsThere is a very atmosphericanalytical framework , this framework canmodern economics All schools of economics have been collected and integrated into a new mainstream school of economics.Compared with neoclassical economics, the new classical analytical framework has the following characteristics.
effect
It is generally acknowledged that Dickett, Stiglitzpaul krugman People's theory on new trade andNew growth theoryThe formation of has played a pioneering role.Their model has changed the past growth modelReturn to scaleDecreasing or totalConstant return to scaleBased on the assumption thatIncreasing returns to scaleThe growth theory has greatly improved its explanatory power.Thanks to their promotion,scale economySince the 1970s, it has become a hot topic in international economics.
dilemma
However, their theory faces the following difficulties.
First, their prediction that economic growth and other phenomena can only happen when and only when the average size of manufacturers expands is inconsistent with reality.
In their view, the reason why the scale of manufacturers has expanded is that there are endlessscale economy, and the scale of the manufacturer can never be smaller, because this means thatDiseconomies of scale。However, OECD countries, AsiaNewly industrialized countries(Region) and empirical evidence from China (seeZhang Yongsheng，2000：The Theory of Scale Independence: Theoretical and Empirical Evidence）However, it shows that the average size of manufacturers is not getting larger, but smaller, and the overall trend is inverted U-shaped.Undoubtedly, the phenomenon of increasing returns is the most exciting story in the history of economic growth, but just like Allen·young In his famous paper (1928), he pointed out that the realization mechanism of incremental returns is the division of labor andspecialized，scale economyIt is a wrong description of division of labor and specialized economy.
Second, in their model, the enterprise is just a "black box". The reason why the enterprise appears and the economic meaning of the enterprise system itself cannot be explained. It can explain all kinds of interesting "new development phenomena" in the modern commercial society, such as the smaller enterprise size, production outsourcing, contract transfer, improving the core competitiveness of enterprisesFranchise chain operationOEM production, e-commerce, etc.Their framework cannot internalize the enterprise system. If they want to internalize the enterprise system, all their conclusions will change accordingly;If there is no inherent enterprise, all the stories in their model will not happen.
Third,transaction cost There is no substantive meaning in their model, and there is no transaction cost for such phenomena as enterprise scale expansion.The reason why the explanatory power of economics has improved substantially since the 1970s is thatCoaseIt is one of the important reasons that the representative new institutional economists introduce transaction costs into economic analysis.
Fix the problem
Then, can we amend these theories without changing the analytical framework, so as to get out of the above dilemma?Jones, Dasgupt, etc. andNational Research Council(See C. Jones, 1995a, b, 1996; Dasgupta, 1995; National Research Council, 1986).After finding empirical evidence that negates the new endogenous growth model such as R&D, they proposed an improvement scheme within the original framework.Jones (C. Jones, 1995), Alwyn Young (1998) andHiggsSegerstrom (1998) suggested several methods to avoid the type V (R&D investment) scale effect in the R&D model.However, Jones himself admitted, "This improved model is also imperfect, because it has produced population (Category I)scale effect ”。And neoclassicalEndogenous growthIf scale effect is absent in the model, endogenous growth will not occur again.These empirical studies show that the neoclassical endogenous growth model does not provide a convincing explanation for the driving mechanism behind economic growth (Jones, 1995a, pp. 508-509).Neoclassical growth theoryAttributing incremental returns toscale economyHowever, the origin of economies of scale is an unsolvable mystery.
If you read Smith'sOn the Wealth of Nations、young "Incremental returns and economic progress" published in The Economic Journal in 1928, andStiglerPublished in 1951“Market capacityWe can understand why Smith Young's theorem is called the most important theorem in economics.The increasing returns in economic growth do not come from economies of scale, but from division of labor and specialized economies.specializedEconomy is a much more appropriate concept than economies of scale.Dickett and Stiglitzpaul krugman The defect of the model of others lies in the analytical framework. Only by improving the analytical framework can its limitations be fundamentally overcome.Unfortunately, the concept of economies of scale has misled many economists because it is closer to people's intuition and conforms to people's determination to try to transform the world.If professional economy is used insteadscale economyWe don't need to resort to the flawed concept of economies of scale to generate incremental returns.
Combination of theory and practice
Visible toSmith's theory of division of laborThe classical economic thought represented by the can better explain the economic reality around us.However, the theory of division of labor is not enough. Smith's theory of division of labor does notEnterprise theory。If we unfortunately live in a self-sufficient society, how can we evolve into a modern society characterized by enterprise system and high division of labor?Neoclassical economics cannot solve this problem.therefore,CoaseThere it is.He said that division of labor is not enough to produce enterprises, because the function of the market is to organize division of labor;The aversion to risk is not enough to produce enterprises, because the insurance market can solve this problem.
The root cause of the enterprise system is savingtransaction cost 。Zhang Wuchang(1983) further pointed out that the emergence of enterprises was due to the fact that labor transaction costs were lower than product transaction costs.However, Coase et alTransaction cost theoryIt has no direct meaning of economic growth.Through Smithyoung 、CoaseIt is Yang Xiaokai who theorized with Zhang Wuchang and others.They built the analysis framework on the basis of the interaction of individual self-interest decision-making, introduced transaction costs into the model, and generated enterprise system, economic growthincreasing returns、Manufacturer scaleSo as to completely overcomeNeoclassical growth theoryAbove.Their model endogenous the enterprise system in the division of laborEnterprise theoryIt directly injects the meaning of economic growth into.In this way, a new theoretical thoroughfare was opened up.
