Large cap share is the stock issued by large companies with a total market value of more than 2 billion yuan.Total capitalIs calculated as the company's existingNumber of sharesMultiply by the market value of the stock.Large cap companies are usually shipbuilding, steel, petrochemical companies.There is no uniform standard for large cap stocks, which is commonly agreedequityLarger stocks.
Usually refers to the issuedOutstanding sharesStocks of listed companies with large amount.conversely,Small-cap It refers to the shares of listed companies with relatively small amount of outstanding shares, which generally do not exceed 100 million shares at present in ChinaOutstanding stockCan be regarded as small cap stocks.mid-cap That is, the number of shares issued between large cap shares and small cap shares.In the past, there were quite few stocks on a large scale, soCirculation trayThose below 30 million yuan are called small cap stocks, while those with a circulation of more than 100 million yuan are called large cap stocks.
With the listing of many large state-owned enterprises, this concept has also changed.The circulation of less than 100 million yuan can be regarded asSmall-cap Instead ofSinopec , China UnicomBaosteelThese stocks with more than ten or even billions of tradable shares are calledSuper large cap stocks, such as many steel stocks, petrochemical stocks and electric power stocks due toCirculation trayLarge, also known as large cap stocks.With ChinaCapital securitizationWith the acceleration of the pace, more and more industries have large cap stocks, such as commercial department storesSuning Electric ApplianceAnd most stocks in metal mining.The market view is based on the listed companyCirculation trayGenerally, a stock above 500 million yuan is definitely a large cap stock, but there is no clear boundary.The gradual rise of large cap stocks is more favorable for attracting group funds to join the alliance. With a suitable handling place for large funds, the excessive share price of small cap stocks will be suppressedinvestment structureAlsomanagement layerThe essence of painstaking effort is alsoChina Stock MarketNew pattern.Small-cap Dividends after many yearsStock dividendOr additional issuance, it will also become a large cap stock.Suning Electric is a good example.
Similarly, small cap stocks are those with less than 60 million yuan.
Commercial Press《English Chinese Dictionary of Securities Investment》There is a formal explanation for this.See:large-cap。The other is: large cap stock;large-capitalization share；large-capitalization stock
Investment characteristics
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Large Cap Cartoon
Investors who have spent some time in the stock market have almost formed such an idea:Small-cap Good speculation, large cap stocksEquityStupid.When selecting stocks, investors often prefer small cap stocks.The times have changed. From the perspective of enterprise fundamentals, this concept of investors seems to have some truth. Small cap stocks have relatively large growth space, strong expansion, and are relatively easy to be acquired and reorganized;However, China's so-called large enterprisesinternational standardOnly small and medium-sized enterprises can be measured, and the growth space of enterprises is still large.In fact, small businesses（Small-cap ）The operation risk is high and there is great uncertainty in the future;However, large enterprises (large cap stocks) have strong strength, less operational risk and relatively certain prospects.Of course, the most important thing is to see how large enterprises become larger. If they grow and develop by their own strength after years of trial and error in the market, they are excellent enterprises selected by the market. Thanks to the successful accumulation of capital, market experience, talents and other aspects, the investment value of enterprises is large, but the investment risk is small;If it is a large enterprise that depends on the support of the government's administrative means, it will be like a pile of eggs, and the future risks will be great.
fromcapital marketFrom the perspective of operational reality, the reason why China's small cap stocks are easy to speculate is that most of the makers have not studied the growth of enterprises. The reason is simply the needAmount of fundsIt is relatively small. With a relatively small amount of capital, it can achieve holding. For example, with a capital of 300 million yuan (which can be found in any number of companies), it can control 400 million or 500 million yuanCirculation market valueAnd then entered the realm of freedom, which can be promoted all the way. The selfless and unrestrained can completely ignore the stockFundamental planeWhen it reaches the high level, it can be combined with some news, the most common is a large proportionStock dividend, took advantage of the relatively low share price to escape.At this point, the real face of the above operation has been revealed: this is actuallyManipulating stock prices。It is a violationillegal activities。In Premier Zhu's Report on the Work of the Government, we stressed the need to standardize and improvestock marketProtect the interests of investors.Development in norms is the keynote of the future.
Stocks with large market values are especially suitable for large funds. It is easy to collect chips or distribute them.Fish fly at the bottom, whilewhaleIt is not in the pool and must have a large capacity.China's large cap stocks are actually hiding dragons and crouching tigers.Relative priceQuite low, many areBlue chip stock。In fact, many of the stocks we recommended before are large cap stocks.Large cap stocks can not be likeSmall-cap Pass like thatStock dividendIf the golden cicada gets out of its shell, it can rise all the way with the improvement of its performance alone, and the foundation for its rise is more reliable.
Stock price
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Large cap stocks
Large cap stocksValue depression, has investment valueSmall-cap In the process of continuously risinginvestment opportunity More and more obvious, likeChina RailwaySuch stocks have gone out of the upward breakthrough trend, and the rising market of a hundred flowers is about to start.
Small cap stocks have always been highly praised（GEMExcept), because small cap stocks have rich speculation topics and futureEquity expansionThe high ability and reasonable stock price positioning make it the first choice for investors to select stocks.But as the market develops in depth, most of theSmall-cap The stock price has doubled, and there are many stocks that have risen several times.In contrast, large cap stocks either lagged behindstock market index, or it is still at the bottom of the hovering stage, the huge difference in valuation makes large cap stocks have a reason to buy. Although large cap stocks are still inactive compared with small cap stocks, lacking the ability to expand capital stock, large cap stocks are cheap, which is enough to attract capital attention.
In contrast, large cap stocks are mostlyNational economyPillar enterprises have relatively stable performance. Although they lack hype, they have greater advantages in dealing with inflation. These companies have every reason to become long-term investorsCore assets, holding for 5 or even 10 years to obtain long-term and stable income.
holdLarge blue chips, not funds andinstitutional investorSmall and medium-sized investors can also allocate a certain proportion of large blue chips to buy from the perspective of investment and sell from the perspective of speculation.That is, as long as the stock price is in a reasonable area, it will be held for a long time. If the stock price rises sharply due to the influence of speculative atmosphere, it is far from reasonableValue range, then investors will sell their shares and look for the next investment opportunity.
However, investing in large cap stocks does not mean that all stocks are worth buying.The form is very important. You must choose the stock price at the bottom, orIncreaseFar less thanstock market index；At the same time, stocks that have completed bottom funding and are about to enter the rising stage.However, selling large cap stocks has other skills. When the stock price rises to a certain extent and various stock reviews recommend it, it is time to sell.
In addition, in the course of the rise of large cap stocks, there is rarely a continuous limit rise, and it is often the cumulative increase over a period of time that brings huge profits to investors.Therefore, the biggest advantage of large cap stocks is that they should not be impatient and steady.
Market performance
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equity market
Since the end of 2007,Market operationThe frequent occurrence of the "February 8th" phenomenon has always been a distinctive featureSmall diskThe strength of individual stocks and the performance of individual stocks in the market are all weak.
103Total share capitalIn terms of large cap stocks with more than 1.5 billion shares,Closing priceExceed the second half of 2006Maximum priceThere are only 7 of them.Compared with the highest price in the second half of 2007,DeclineMore than 15% of them reached 44, accounting for nearly 43% of the statistical results. There were also 11 that dropped more than 25% from the highest point.Of course, many of them are due to the overall marketNew sharesIt is caused by irrational market speculation after listing, such asPetroChina、China Shenhua、COSLAnd so on. After the change of hands after the listing, they basically return to the listing dayOpening priceHowever, in addition to the sub new large cap stocks, the poor market performance can also become the common feature of the recent trend of large cap stocks.
In sharp contrast to the market trend of large cap stocks, their performance is gratifying.stayMacroeconomyIn the context of overall rapid development, combined with the recent release of listed companiesPerformance forecastOn the whole, as the core or leading enterprise of the industry, the performance of large cap stocks in 2007 is still expected to be good, which is based on our statisticsPerformance forecastThe situation is basically consistent, which shows that the market is still optimistic about the performance of this group.But judging from the market performance on the day when the performance forecast was released, even ifIncreaseThe demand for price compensation brought about by relative lag, and the promotion of good performance forecasts on the stock prices of large cap stocks is often limited to one or twoTrading dayOn the whole, the continuity of the trend of large cap stocks is not strong.The reason is that large cap stocks are phasedCapitalTightness is the root cause.We all know that becauseCirculation market valueFor a larger reason, large cap stocks have always been favored by institutions and have always been the most heavily held group of institutions. But recently, from the perspective of the market, institutions are not very enthusiastic about operating large cap stocksTransaction returnIt can be seen that most of the actions of reducing positions can be regarded as the absolute protagonist of the trend of large cap stocks. The recent position adjustment of institutions is not sufficient, which has indirectly led to the pattern of continuous strength in Shenzhen and weakness in Shanghai since the New Year. The specific situation still needs to be combined with the annual reportQuarterly reportTo judge the situation.
From the perspective of industry distribution and recent market performance, real estate and financial stocks still have no obvious signs of stabilizing, especially real estate stocksMacro control policiesThe attitude of how to wait and see the cumulative effect is quite heavy.As the annual report performance is expected to be clear, steel, nonferrous metalsTransportationandpublic utilityThe trend of other varieties has improved. After all, under the bull market environmentEffectivenessRelatively high, while the liquidity is still abundant, the periodic failure is expected to be gradually corrected.
In addition, the market has also discussed a lot about the rotation of the performance of "28" and "82" stocks. Judging from the operation of this bull market, the market is often followed by the switch of market style hotspots, which seems to have a certain degreeRegularityExists.For this point, the author believes that large cap stocksAdjustment timeAlthough it is not short, from the intention of the main body, it is still difficult for large cap stocks to become stronger as a whole.At the same time, the previous style hot spot rotation of the market is based on the gradual expansion of market operationRelative valuationOn the basis of the enlarged level, it is still difficult to reach a conclusion in terms of the current stage of market operation and the overall valuation level, which requires patient follow-up observation.
Stock market analysis
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analysis
After careful analysis of the market, we found that although since October 2007share indexContinuous sharp rise, but many stocks in the market did not rise at the same time, but showed signs of accelerated outflow of funds, and the profit opportunities of the whole market began to decrease,Market entryIn the relatively difficult operation stage, many investors, especially those who buy large cap stocks, are puzzled about how large cap stocks are going, why they are rising so high, whether there are bubbles, and whether they can continue to rise in the future.With these problems in mind, we have carefully considered and analyzed them, and we have come to the conclusion that investors should not study large cap stocks from the perspective of investment just like ordinary stocksinvestment valueIn addition, due to its market value, it also has a relatively large influence on the index.stayFinancial derivativesIn the era of continuous introduction, this feature of large cap stocks makes them have the characteristics of market profit making tools.Therefore, as investors, we should understand this issue from more perspectives when judging the trend and valuation of large cap stocks, especially blue chip large cap stocks.
First of all, from the perspective of investment, the rise of large cap stocks is certainFundamental planeSupported by.This support comes from three aspects: first, most of these enterprises are operating well.Because according to the first three quartersChina's economyThe overall economic development is accelerating.While large cap stocks have a long historynational economyWith the rapid development of the national economy, these enterprises are also facing opportunities for rapid development.Secondly, in 2008, China will unify domestic and foreign enterprisesincome taxFor state-owned enterprises, this is a great benefit, which will reduce their income tax from the current 33% to 25%, which will improve the institutional level of state-owned enterprisesoperating performance Therefore, for large state-owned enterprisesStock priceIt has a certain promoting effect.Third, the integration of central enterprises has improved the investment value of the company.Especially for large domestic enterprises, only some assets are listed when they are listed, and there are still many high-quality and large assets in the group, in order to promote the whole central enterpriseOperation managementThe SASAC has promoted the comprehensive integration of these enterprises, injected high-quality assets and reducedRelated transactions, improve the company'sintrinsic value。It is precisely because of the above three factors that large cap stocks once attracted the attention of market funds.Driven by their continuous elevation,Shanghai IndexIt finally broke through 6000 points and acceleratedblue-chip shareThe process of price rising.But this rise has also brought the wholeBlue chipThe phenomenon that the stock price is on the high side, and most stocks are separated from their own reasonableprice level Some even overdraw the growth of the next few years.From this point of view, blue chips are of good quality at present, with high prices, bubbles and adjustment pressure in the future.
Secondly, from another point of view, blue chipsCirculation trayLarge, high market value and significant share in the index, so their fluctuations have a very important impact on the operation of the index.So they have another function that has nothing to do with their own investment value - tools that affect the index.So instock market indexIn the era of futures, in the era when warrants can be createdMargin tradingIn the era of launch, whoever owns the chips of these stocks will take a greater initiative in the future market and gain moreinterest arbitrageAnd profit opportunities.Therefore, there is another demand for these stocks in order to occupy the marketDominanceThe resulting demand for key chips in large cap stocks.The recent rise of large cap stocks has more speculative factors and requirements for allocation of strategic assets.
At the current stage, the investment advantages of large cap stocks have gradually weakened, and with the gradual overdraft of stock pricescorporate performance The stable growth of these companies in the future can no longer meet people's expectationsOverall listingAnd asset entry will be the opportunities for large cap stocks.Appear in the current marketBlue chip foamIn the context ofAsset injectionAnd overall listedLarge blue chipsThe future price rise lacks motivation, and investors need to avoid it.Of course notspeculatorIn order toderivativeThe market will gain more profits, which will drive the large cap stocks to become active again in the short term.But because of the futureMarket spaceShrink andrisk awareness As the number of opportunities for short-term speculation in large cap stocks increases, investors should pay attention to maintaining a clear understanding.
Stock indexstock market index。Is created bystock exchangeOr financial service institutionsStock marketAn indicator of variation for reference.becauseStock priceVolatile, investors must facemarket priceRisk.It is easy for investors to understand the price changes of a specific stock, but it is not easy or troublesome to understand the price changes of various stocks one by one.In order to adapt to this situation and need, some financial service institutions have made use of their own business knowledge and market familiarity to compile stock price indexes,Public release, as an indicator of market price changes.Investors can test the effect of their investment and use it to predictstock marketTrend.At the same time,The press, company bosses and even political leaders also use this as a reference indicator to observe and predict the social, political and economic development situation.
This stock index is the price that indicates the changes of stock marketaverage。The stock index is usually prepared on the basis of a certain year or month, and the stock price of this base period is taken as 100Base priceCompare and calculate the liftingpercentageIs the stock index of that period.Investors can judge the stock price according to the rise and fall of the indexChange trend。In order to reflect the trend of the stock market to investors in real time, almost all stock markets publish the stock price index at the same time as the stock price changes.
To calculate the stock index, three factors should be considered: first, sampling, that is, taking a small number of stocks withRepresentativenessOfConstituent stock；Second, weighting, according to unit price or total valueweighted mean , or unweighted average;The third is the calculation programArithmetic mean、Geometric mean, or both price and total value.
becauseListed stockThere are many kinds of stocks, and the work of calculating the average price or index of all listed stocks is arduous and complex. Therefore, people often select several representative sample stocks from listed stocks and calculate the average price or index of these sample stocks.It is used to indicate the general trend of stock price andRise and fall range。This job usually involves professionals from securities companies orFinancial platformasSina FinanceThe financial elites in Sizhou.com Dubai Finance completed it, and then transferred to shareholders through specific channels.calculationAverage share priceThe following four points are often taken into account when index: (1) Sample stocks must havetypical, universality. Therefore, the selection of samples should take into account the industry distribution, market influence, stock grade, appropriate number and other factors.(2) The calculation method shall be highly adaptable to the changingStock marketMake corresponding adjustment or correction to make the stock index or average bettersusceptibility。(3) There should be scientific calculation basis and means.The caliber of the calculation basis must be unified, generally based onClosing priceIt is the basis for calculation, but with the increase of calculation frequency, some are calculated at hourly price or even shorter time price.(4) The base period should be well balanced and representative.
2、 Calculation method of index
When calculating the stock index, the stock index andAverage share priceCalculate separately.By definition,share indexI.eAverage share price。However, in terms of the actual effect of the two on the stock market, the average price is a general level that reflects the price changes of a variety of stocks, usually expressed as an arithmetic average.By comparing the average of stock prices in different periods, people can understand the changes of various stock prices.The stock index reflects the changes of stock prices in different periodsRelative indicatorsThat is, the average share price of the first period is taken as the benchmark of the average share price of the other periodpercentage。Through the stock index, people can understandCalculation periodThe percentage rate by which the stock price of a company rises or falls compared with the stock price of the base period.Since the stock index is a relative indicator, for a long period of timeAverage share priceIt can more accurately measure the change of stock price.
1. Calculation of average share price
Average share priceIt reflects the absolute level of the listed stock price at a certain time point. It can be divided into simple arithmetic average of stock price, revised average of stock priceWeighted average share priceThree types.People can see the changes and trends of stock prices by comparing the average of stock prices at different time points.
(1) Simple arithmetic average of share price
The simple arithmetic average of stock price is to convert the sample stock dailyClosing priceThe sum of is divided by the number of samples, namely:
Average price of simple arithmetic=(P1+P2+P3+...+Pn)/n
Now let's assume that the stocks sampled from a certain stock market are A, B, C and D, and the closing prices on a certain trading day are 10 yuan, 16 yuan, 24 yuan and 30 yuan respectively, and calculate the average price of the market.Put the above numbers into the formula to get:
Average share price=(P1+P2+P3+P4)/n
=(10+16+24+30)/4
=20 yuan
Although the simple arithmetic price average is relatively simple to calculate, it has two disadvantages: first, it does not consider theWeightTherefore, it is impossible to distinguish the different influences of sample stocks with different importance on the average price.Second, when sample stocks occurStock splitDistributionbonus share, capital increase, etc,Average share priceWill produce faults and loseContinuity, maketime seriesIt is difficult to compare before and after.For example, when the above D shares are divided into three shares based on one share, the share price is bound to be reduced from 30 yuan to 10 yuan. At this time, the average is not 20 yuan calculated above, but (10+16+24+10)/4=15 yuan.That is to say, due to the technical changes in the D share split, the average share price has dropped from 20 yuan to 15 yuan (this does not take into account other factors that affect the change of share price), which obviously does not meet the requirement that the average should be used as an indicator to reflect the change of share price.
(2) Revised average number of shares
There are two revised stock price averages:
everythingDivisor correction, also known as Daodaoamendment。 Is this the American Way?A calculation created by Jones in 1928Average share priceMethod.The core of this method is to find a constantDivisor, to correct the causeStock splitCapital increase and distributionbonus shareTo maintain the continuity andComparability。The specific method is to divide the total amount of the new share price by the average of the old share price to obtain a new divisor, and then divide the total amount of the share price in the calculation period by the new divisor to obtain the revised average of the stock intermediary.That is, the new divisor=the total new share price after the change/the revised average share price of the old average share price=Reporting periodTotal share price/new divisor
In the previous example, the divisor is 4, and the new divisor after adjustment should be: the new divisor=(10+16+24+10)/20=3. If the new divisor is substituted into the following formula, then the average value obtained by the revised average price=(10+16+24+10)/3=20 (yuan) is the same as that calculated when the stock price is not divided, and the stock price level will not be affected byStock splitAnd change.
SecondStock price amendment method。The stock price correction method is to reduce the stock price after the change to the stock price before the change, so thatAverage share priceThis will not change.United States《New York Times》The average of 500 stock prices is calculated using the stock price correction method.
Weighted average stock price is the average stock price calculated by weighted average according to the relative importance of various sample stocks. Its weight (Q) can be a transactionNumber of shares、EUR Mn 、Issue of sharesQuantity, etc.
2. Calculation of stock index
The stock index is a relative indicator reflecting the changes of stock prices at different time points.UsuallyReporting periodStock price and fixedBase priceCompare, and multiply the ratio of the two by the index value of the base period, which is the stock index of the reporting period.There are three methods to calculate the stock index: firstRelative methodSecondsynthesis, the third isWeighting method。
(1) Relative method
The relative method, also known as the average method, is to calculate the stock index of each sample first.The arithmetic mean of the sum.hisCalculation formulaIs: stock index=sum of n sample stock indexes/n British《economist》The common stock index uses this calculation method.
(2) Comprehensive method
The comprehensive method is to sum up the prices of sample stocks in the base period and the reporting period respectively, and then compare them to calculate the stock index.That is: stock index=sum of share prices in the reporting period/sum of share prices in the base periodStock index=(8+12+14+18)/(5+8+10+15)=52/38=136.8%, that is, the share price in the reporting period increased by 36.8% over the base period.From the perspective of the average method and the comprehensive method to calculate the stock index, both of them do not take into account the issuance andTrading volumeAnd the impact on the stock price of the whole stock market is different. Therefore, the calculated index is not accurate enough.To make stockIndex calculationFor accuracy, it is necessary to add a weight, which can be the trading volume or the issuance volume.
(3) Weighting method
Weighted stock index is weighted according to the relative importance of sample stocks in each period. Its weight can be the number of shares traded, the number of shares issued, etc.Divided by time, the weight can be the weight of the base period or the weight of the reporting period.The index weighted by the number of shares traded (or issued) in the base period is calledRasbayer index；withReporting periodThe index with the number of shares traded (or issued) as the weight is calledPaisch index。 The Rasbayer index focuses on the number of shares traded (or issued) in the base period, while the Paich index focuses on the number of shares traded (or issued) in the reporting period.At present, most stock indexes in the world are Paish indexes.
Main differences
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As experienced investors know,Small-cap Good speculation, large cap stocksEquityStupid.When selecting stocks, investors often prefer small cap stocks.
But the times are different, although investors from enterprisesFundamental planeSeen from it, it seems to have some truth. Small cap stocks have large growth space, strong expansion, and are relatively easy to be acquired and reorganized;However, the so-called large enterprises in China can only be regarded as small and medium-sized enterprises according to international standards, and there is still much room for the growth of enterprises.
in fact,small business(Small cap stocks)business riskBig, big in the futureUncertainty;However, large enterprises (large cap stocks) have strong strength, less operational risk and relatively certain prospects.Of course, the most important thing is to see how large enterprises become larger. If they grow and develop by their own strength after years of trial and error in the market, they are excellent enterprises selected by the market. Thanks to the successful accumulation of capital, market experience, talents and other aspects, the investment value of enterprises is largeinvestment riskSmaller;If it depends on the governmentadministrative meansWith the support of, the big enterprises that have been fostered and pieced together are like eggs in the ground, with great risks in the future.
fromcapital marketFrom the perspective of operational reality, the reason why China's small cap stocks are easy to speculate is that most of the makers have not studied the growth of enterprises. The reason is that the amount of capital required is relatively small, and the holding can be achieved with relatively small amount of capital.
Stocks with large market values are especially suitable for large funds. It is easy to collect chips or distribute them.Fish fly at the bottom, while whales are not in the pool. They must have a large capacity.[1]
