interest rate

[lì lǜ]

Economic Terms

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zero Useful+1

zero

synonym Interest rate (Interest rate) generally refers to interest rate

The interest rate refers to the ratio between the amount of interest and the amount of borrowed funds (principal) in a certain period. Interest rate is determined Enterprise capital cost The main factor of high and low is also Enterprise financing , decisive factors of investment financial environment We must pay attention to the current situation of interest rates and Change trend 。^[1]

The interest rate refers to the amount of interest due in each period of the amount borrowed, deposited or borrowed (called the total principal amount) and Nominal value Ratio of. The total interest of the lent or borrowed amount depends on the total principal amount, interest rate, compound interest frequency, and the length of time for lending, depositing or borrowing. The interest rate is the price paid by the borrower for the money borrowed from him, and also the return obtained by the lender for delaying his consumption and lending to the borrower. The interest rate is usually based on the one-year interest and principal percentage calculation.

Chinese name: interest rate
Foreign name: interest rate
Alias: Interest rate

Discipline: economics
Abbreviation symbol: r
Prepared by: central bank

catalog

sixteen Interest rate and exchange rate
seventeen History of changes

Noun theory

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Change in interest rate

Generally speaking, interest rates are expressed in the following ways according to different measurement term standards Annual interest rate 、 Monthly interest rate 、 Daily interest rate 。

In modern economy, interest rate, as the price of capital, is not only restricted by many factors in the economic society, but also has a significant impact on the whole economy economist When studying the determination of interest rates, we pay special attention to the relationship between various variables and the balance of the whole economy, Interest rate determination theory Has also experienced Classical interest rate theory Keynesian interest rate theory Interest rate theory of loanable funds IS-LM interest rate analysis and contemporary dynamic Interest rate model The evolution and development process of.

Keynes saw interest rates as

Keynes It is believed that savings and investment are two interdependent variables rather than two independent variables. In his theory, money supply from central bank Control, no Interest rate elasticity Of Exogenous variable 。 here money demand It depends on people's psychological“ Liquidity preference ”。

The later theory of loanable capital interest rate is new Classical school The "liquidity preference" interest rate theory of Keynes was proposed to revise the "liquidity preference" interest rate theory of Keynes. To some extent, the interest rate theory of loanable funds can actually be regarded as Classical interest rate theory and Keynesian theory A synthesis of.

Famous British economist Hicks Others believe that the above theory does not consider the income factor, so it is impossible to determine the level of interest rates, so they proposed in 1937 General equilibrium theory Fundamental IS-LM model 。 Thus, a theory of simultaneous determination of interest rate and income under the interaction of savings and investment, money supply and money demand is established.

According to this model, the determination of interest rate depends on the supply of savings, investment demand money supply The four factors of money demand, which lead to changes in savings investment and money supply and demand, will affect the level of interest rates. The characteristics of this theory are General equilibrium analysis 。

Under a relatively tight theoretical framework, the theory Classical theory Of commodity market Balance and Keynesian theory Of money market Balance and organic unity. Marx's interest rate determination theory is an interest rate theory that considers the role of institutional factors in interest rate determination from the perspective of the source and essence of interest. Its theoretical core is that interest rate is determined by average profit rate. Marx believed that capitalism Under the system, interest is a part of profits surplus value A form of transformation of.

The independence of interest can really show that the users of funds Reproduction process The active role played by.

Significance

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In terms of form, interest rate means that the amount of interest within a certain period is the same as Borrowing capital Ratio of the total amount.^[2] Interest rate is the interest level of unit currency in unit time, indicating the amount of interest. Economists have been trying to find a complete explanation Interest rate structure And the theory of change 。 The interest rate is usually controlled by the central bank of the country. In the United States, it is controlled by Federal Reserve Board Administration. All countries regard interest rates as Macroeconomic regulation One of the important tools of.

When Overheated economy 、 inflation When it rises, it will raise interest rates and tighten credit; When the overheated economy and inflation are under control, interest rates will be appropriately lowered. Therefore, interest rate is an important basic economic factors one of. Interest rate is an important financial variable in economics. Almost all financial phenomena financial assets Are more or less related to interest rates.

At present, countries around the world frequently use Interest rate leverage Implement macro-control, Interest rate policy It has become the main means for national central banks to regulate money supply and demand, and then to regulate the economy monetary policy Is becoming more and more important.

Interest rate is regulated monetary policy Are also used to control investment inflation and unemployment rate And then affect economic growth. A reasonable interest rate is of great significance to the economic leverage of social credit and interest rate.

During the depression, reduce the interest rate, expand the money supply, and stimulate economic development 。 In the period of expansion, the interest rate will be raised, the money supply will be reduced, and the malignant development of the economy will be suppressed. Therefore, interest rates have a great impact on our lives.

Different connotations

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Interest rates in different countries have different connotations. In China, the interest rate usually refers to bank rate , which further points to the regulations of the People's Bank of China Benchmark interest rate of deposit and loan 。 In the United States, it mainly refers to Bond market interest rate , so-called Federal Reserve The adjusted benchmark interest rate is not a mandatory administrative benchmark interest rate, but Open market operation Post Determined Interbank overnight lending rate 。

The reason why the connotations are different is that Basic national conditions and economic system There are fundamental differences. planned economy The planned economy has turned into a market economy. These stages are due to the traditional economy and finance Structure mode Influence, mandatory and directive administrative regulations are direct, effective, fast and accurate, plus the marketization of the central bank Operational capability Limited and inexperienced, the benchmark interest rate has still become the common interest rate determination standard of the society. The marketization degree of the Federal Reserve is very high“ Federal Funds Rate ”All adjustments are obtained after open market operation Market results 。

In a broad sense, interest rate is not limited to bank interest itself, but also includes bond market , and even include Stock dividends , as another way of expressing dividends. In fact, in the United States, Direct financing Is much larger than Indirect financing ， Corporate bonds 、 Financial debt and Stock disclosure Listing is a very important means of financing, which can be analyzed with the concept of interest rate.

Understanding the different connotations of interest rate will help us to have a deeper understanding of the financial concept of interest rate, especially its formation, change and derivation need to be determined by the market, which is a very critical element.

influence factor

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interest rate

The level of interest rate, the factors that affect the interest rate, mainly capital Marginal productivity Or capital relation between supply and demand 。 In addition, there are the length of time commitment to deliver the currency and the degree of risk taken. The interest rate policy is macro monetary policy In order to intervene in the economy, the government can adjust the domestic inflation level indirectly by changing the interest rate.

Profit margin level

In socialist market economy, interest is still used as Average profit So the interest rate is also determined by Average profit rate It is determined that the level of interest rate first depends on the level of the average profit rate of the society. According to the current situation of China's economic development and reform practice, this constraint can be summarized as follows: the overall level of interest rates should adapt to the affordability of most enterprises.

In other words, the overall level of interest rate cannot be too high, which most enterprises cannot bear; On the contrary, the overall level of interest rates should not be too low. If it is too low, interest rates cannot be used Leverage 。

Capital supply and demand

stay Average profit rate The change of interest rate depends on the average profit divided into interest and Enterprise profit Scale of. This ratio is determined by Borrowing capital The supply and demand sides of the company are determined through competition.

Generally, when the supply of loan capital falls short of demand, the competition between lenders and borrowers will promote Interest rate rise ； On the contrary, when the supply of borrowing capital exceeds the demand, the result of competition will inevitably lead to a decline in interest rates. in China market economy Under these conditions, the interest rate is affected by Law of supply and demand Therefore, the supply and demand of funds have a negative impact on Interest rate level It still plays a decisive role.

Price fluctuation range

Because the price is rigid, the trend of change is generally upward, so how to keep the currency held by oneself from devaluing, or how to obtain compensation after devaluation, is a common concern of people.

This concern makes it possible to engage in business Monetary capital The bank of must make Deposit taking Of Nominal interest rate adapt Price rise Otherwise it is difficult to absorb deposits; At the same time, the nominal interest rate of loans must be adapted to the extent of price rise, otherwise it will be difficult to obtain income from investment 。 Therefore, the nominal interest rate level and price level have Synchronous development Trend, Price changes The range of the nominal interest rate restricts the level of the nominal interest rate.

International economic environment

After the reform and opening up, China's economic ties with other countries have become increasingly close. In this case, interest rates are also inevitably subject to international economic factors The impact of is shown in the following aspects:

① International capital flows, by changing China's capital Supply Affect China's interest rate level;

② China's interest rate level is also affected by international commodity competition;

③ China's interest rate level is also affected by the Foreign exchange reserves And the impact of foreign capital utilization policies.

Policy factors

Since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949, China's interest rates have basically belonged to the type of regulated interest rates, which were formulated by the State Council in a unified way People's Bank of China unified management The formulation and implementation of interest rate levels are subject to policy factors. China has long implemented a low Interest rate policy , with stabilize prices Stabilize the market.

Since 1978, some departments and enterprises have discriminatory interest rate , reflecting policy guidance or policy restrictions. It can be seen that in China's socialist market economy, interest rates do not follow Credit funds The supply and demand of state regulation Economic needs, and subject to national control and regulation.

Historical habits

Lending term

Interest rate refers to the ratio of interest to principal in a certain period of time. It is the factor and measurement standard that determines the amount of interest. As the price of funds, the interest rate is determined and influenced by many complex factors. The interest rate level is ultimately determined by the comprehensive influence of various factors. First, the interest rate is affected by the average profit level of the industry, the supply and demand of money, and the determinants of economic development. Second, it is affected by the price level Interest rate control , International Economic situation and monetary policy Impact.

According to Marx's Interest rate theory , interest is a part of profit, yes surplus value As a result, interest is first restricted by average profit. Generally speaking, the average profit rate is the maximum limit of interest. Interest rate as the price of capital, and Common goods Similarly, the supply and demand of money determine and affect its price.

The state of a country's economic development determines Enterprise profit level And people's income determine and affect the relationship between savings supply and Investment demand It also affects the demand and supply of money.

The effective interest rate follows price level The internationally accepted real interest rate adjusted by expected changes Calculation formula

Actual interest rate=(1+nominal interest rate)/(1+price Rate of change ）-1

Because the change of interest rate has a great impact on the economy, all countries have implemented different levels of interest rate management through laws, regulations and policies. States often rely on their economic policy To intervene in the level of interest rates, and at the same time affect the economy by adjusting interest rates.

In a word, there are many complex factors that determine interest rates and affect their changes, among which the final decisive factor is a country economic activity The status of. Therefore, to analyze the current situation and changes of interest rates in a country, it is necessary to take full account of the specific conditions of the country and treat them separately according to different characteristics.

The central bank mainly considers the following factors when setting the deposit interest rate level:

Price change rate. When setting the deposit interest rate, the consideration of price changes is to ensure that depositors will not reduce the actual monetary amount of deposits due to rising prices.

Security yield 。 When determining the deposit interest rate, it is necessary to consider the securities yield, because people are interested in Monetary capital There are many choices for the way of control, which can be kept at hand; Can be deposited in the bank; You can buy national bonds or enterprise stocks and bonds.

Taken together, it can be concluded that Ideal state For:

Price rise rate<bank deposit rate< securities Yield

Interpreting indicators

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interest rate

Interest rate level yes Foreign exchange rate It has a very important impact, and interest rate is the most important factor affecting the exchange rate. We know that the exchange rate is between the currencies of two countries Relative price 。 Like the pricing mechanism of other commodities, it is determined by foreign exchange market On relation between supply and demand Determined. Foreign exchange is a kind of financial assets People hold it because it can bring capital gains.

People are choosing to hold Local currency When holding a foreign borrowing currency, the first thing is to consider which currency can bring him greater benefits Yield First, by financial market The interest rate.

Of some currency Interest rate rise , holding Interest income Increase to attract investors to buy the currency, so it is supported by favorable (favorable) conditions for the currency; If the interest rate drops, the income from holding the currency will be reduced, and the attractiveness of the currency will be weakened. Therefore, it can be said that "when interest rates rise, the currency is strong; when interest rates fall, the currency is weak".

In the economic sense, when the foreign exchange market is in equilibrium, the gains from holding any two currencies should be equal, which is Ri=Rj（ Interest rate parity Conditions). Here, R represents the rate of return, and i and j represent the currencies of different countries. If the gains from holding two currencies are unequal Arbitrage : Buy Type A foreign exchange and sell Type B foreign exchange.

There is no risk in this arbitrage. Therefore, once the yields of the two currencies are unequal, the arbitrage mechanism will make the yields of the two currencies equal, that is to say, there is an inherent tendency and trend of equalization in the interest rates of different currencies Foreign exchange rate The key aspect of moving towards influence is also the key for us to interpret and grasp interest rate indicators.

For example, after August 1987 dollar Falling, people rush to buy pound This one High interest currency As a result, the exchange rate of the British pound rose from $1.65 to $1.90 in a very short period of time, rise Nearly 20%. In order to limit the rise of sterling, the UK lowered interest rates several times in succession from May to June 1988 Annual profit 10% to 7.5%, with each interest rate cut, the pound will fall. But due to the rapid depreciation of the pound inflation Pressure increases, then Bank of England Forced to raise interest rates several times, the sterling exchange rate began to gradually recover.

stay open economy Under conditions, International capital flows Large scale, greatly exceeding International trade volume , indicating the great development of financial globalization. Interest rate difference vs Exchange rate changes The impact of is more important than in the past. When a country Tight credit When the interest rate will rise international market The interest rate difference formed on will cause Short term funds In international movement, capital generally flows from countries with low interest rates to countries with high interest rates.

In this way, if the interest rate of one country is higher than that of other countries, it will attract a large number of Capital inflow , home country Capital outflow Decrease, leading to the rush to buy this currency in the international market; meanwhile capital account Improved income and expenditure, domestic currency Exchange rate Improved. On the contrary, if one country loosens credit, the interest rate will fall. If the interest rate level is lower than that of other countries, it will cause a large outflow of capital, reduce foreign capital inflows, and worsen the income and expenditure of the capital account Foreign exchange market It will sell this currency and cause the exchange rate to fall.

In general, when American interest rates fall, the trend of the dollar will be weak; US interest rates rose, and the trend of the US dollar was preferred. From the United States treasury bill (In particular Long term treasury bill ）We can find out the trend of American interest rate and thus help to predict the trend of the US dollar. If investors believe that the United States inflation Under control treasury bill Attracted by interest income, especially Short term treasury bill Will be favored by investors, Bond price rise.

On the contrary, if investors believe that inflation will intensify or worsen, then interest rates may rise to curb inflation, and bond prices will fall. In the first half of the 1980s, there were a large number of trade deficit And huge financial deficits Under the circumstances, the US dollar is still strong, which means that the United States implements high Interest rate policy , prompting a large amount of capital from Japan and Western Europe The result of the inflow into the United States. The trend of the US dollar is influenced by Interest rate factor Has a great impact. Interest rate determination theory

Marx's interest rate determinism It is based on the accurate understanding of the source and nature of interest. Marx revealed that interest is the capital loaned from Borrowed capital A part separated from the capitalists surplus value Profit is the transformation form of surplus value.

This kind of interest Prescriptive It determines the regulation of its quantity (the regulation of interest determines the regulation of its quantity), Interest volume How much depends on Total profit , the interest rate depends on the average profit margin 。 Marx further pointed out that Average profit rate Between zero and zero, the interest rate depends on two factors: first, the profit rate; The second is the proportion of total profits distributed between the lender and the borrower.

The determination of this proportion mainly depends on the supply and demand relationship between the borrower and the borrower and their competition. Generally speaking, when supply exceeds demand, the interest rate drops; Interest rates rise when demand exceeds supply. In addition, laws and customs also play a greater role. Marx's theory explains Socialized mass production The problem of interest rate determination under the condition is instructive.

Most western interest rate determinism focuses on the analysis of the relationship between supply and demand, and believes that interest rate is a kind of price. The difference lies in what kind of supply and demand relationship determines the interest rate. Marshall's Effective interest rate On Emphasizing the Actual Factors of Non money productivity And the role of economy in interest rate determination. Productivity is determined by Marginal investment Tendency expression and economical use Marginal propensity to save express.

The amount of investment is interest rate Subtractive function , savings are interest rate Increasing function The change of interest rate depends on the amount of investment and savings Equilibrium point ； COINS OF KEYNES Theory of supply and demand It is believed that the interest rate is determined by monetary factors rather than actual factors.

money supply Is created by central bank Determined Exogenous variable ， money demand Depends on people's Liquidity preference When people's liquidity preference increases, they tend to increase the amount of money held, so the interest rate is determined by the money demand and money supply Joint decision Of; Loanable capital Based on the former two theories of interest rate determinism, the paper believes that interest rate is determined by the supply and demand of loanable funds, including Total savings And the amount of money added by banks, including total investment And new Money demand , the decision of interest rate depends on commodity market and money market The common equilibrium of.

Deposit interest rate

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Historical data, unit: Annual interest rate %

benchmark interest rate yes People's Bank of China The published guiding interest rates for deposits, loans, discounts and other businesses of commercial banks.

lending rate

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Historical data, unit: Annual interest rate %

Adjustment time	Within six months (including six months)	Six months to one year (including one year)	One to three years (including three years)	Three to five years (including five years)	More than five years
1991.04.21	eight point one zero	eight point six four	nine	nine point five four	nine point seven two
1993.05.15	eight point eight two	nine point three six	ten point eight zero	twelve point zero six	twelve point two four
1993.07.11	nine	ten point nine eight	twelve point two four	thirteen point eight six	fourteen point zero four
1995.01.01	nine	ten point nine eight	twelve point nine six	fourteen point five eight	fourteen point seven six
1995.07.01	ten point zero eight	twelve point zero six	thirteen point five zero	fifteen point one two	fifteen point three zero
1996.05.01	nine point seven two	ten point nine eight	thirteen point one four	fourteen point nine four	fifteen point one two
1996.08.23	nine point one eight	ten point zero eight	ten point nine eight	eleven point seven zero	twelve point four two
1997.10.23	seven point six five	eight point six four	nine point three six	nine point nine zero	ten point five three
1998.03.25	seven point zero two	seven point nine two	nine	nine point seven two	ten point three five
1998.07.01	six point five seven	six point nine three	seven point one one	seven point six five	eight point zero one
1998.12.07	six point one two	six point three nine	six point six six	seven point two zero	seven point five six
1999.06.10	five point five eight	five point eight five	five point nine four	six point zero three	six point two one
2002.02.21	five point zero four	five point three one	five point four nine	five point five eight	five point seven six
2004.10.29	five point two two	five point five eight	five point seven six	five point eight five	six point one two
2006.04.28	five point four zero	five point eight five	six point zero three	six point one two	six point three nine
2006.08.19	five point five eight	six point one two	six point three zero	six point four eight	six point eight four
2007.03.18	five point six seven	six point three nine	six point five seven	six point seven five	seven point one one
2007.05.19	five point eight five	six point five seven	six point seven five	six point nine three	seven point two zero
2007.07.21	six point zero three	six point eight four	seven point zero two	seven point two zero	seven point three eight
2007.08.22	six point two one	seven point zero two	seven point two zero	seven point three eight	seven point five six
2007.09.15	six point four eight	seven point two nine	seven point four seven	seven point six five	seven point eight three
2007.12.21	six point five seven	seven point four seven	seven point five six	seven point seven four	seven point eight three
2008.09.16	six point two one	seven point two zero	seven point two nine	seven point five six	seven point seven four
2008.10.09	six point one two	six point nine three	seven point zero two	seven point two nine	seven point four seven
2008.10.30	six point zero three	six point six six	six point seven five	seven point zero two	seven point two zero
2008.11.27	five point zero four	five point five eight	five point six seven	five point nine four	six point one two
2008.12.23	four point eight six	five point three one	five point four zero	five point seven six	five point nine four
2010.10.20	five point one zero	five point five six	five point six zero	five point nine six	six point one four
2010.12.26	five point three five	five point eight one	five point eight five	six point two two	six point four zero
2011.02.09	five point six zero	six point zero six	six point one zero	six point four five	six point six zero
2011.04.06	five point eight five	six point three one	six point four zero	six point six five	six point eight zero
2011.07.07	six point one zero	six point five six	six point six five	six point nine zero	seven point zero five
2012.06.08	five point eight five	six point three one	six point four	six point six five	six point eight
2012.07.06	five point six zero	six	six point one five	six point four	six point five five
2013..	-	-	-	-	-
2014.11.22	five point six zero	five point six zero	six	six	six point one five
2015.03.01	five point three five	five point three five	five point seven five	five point seven five	five point nine

benchmark interest rate

yes People's Bank of China The published guiding interest rates for deposits, loans, discounts and other businesses of commercial banks. On February 28, 2015, the central bank adjusted the floating ceiling of deposit interest rate to 1.3 times the benchmark interest rate. Since July 20, 2013, the central bank has fully liberalized the control of loan interest rates of financial institutions.

The benchmark interest rate is financial market Interest rate, other interest rate levels or financial Asset price Can be determined according to this benchmark interest rate level. The benchmark interest rate is Interest rate marketization One of the important prerequisites of, Financier measure financing cost To calculate the return on investment, investors objectively require a generally recognized interest rate level as a reference. Therefore, benchmark interest rate is the core of interest rate marketization mechanism.

basic feature

The benchmark interest rate must have the following basic characteristics:

(1) Marketization. It is obvious that the benchmark interest rate must be determined by Market supply and demand Decision, and not only reflect the actual situation Market supply and demand And also reflect the market's expectations for the future;

(2) Fundamentality. The benchmark interest rate is Interest rate system 、 financial products Price system It is in a fundamental position, which is similar to the interest rate or financial assets The price of;

⑶ Transitivity 。 Reflected by benchmark interest rate Market signals , or the control signal sent by the central bank through the benchmark interest rate can be effectively transmitted to other financial markets and finance product price On.

Floating range

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interpretation

The adjustment of interest rate floating range is an important part of interest rate marketization reform. The Central Bank has been cautious in implementing this measure. For many years, it has been implementing the policy that the deposit interest rate cannot be floating up or down temporarily, and the loan interest rate can be floating 10% down to 70% up on the basis of the benchmark interest rate. However, since June 8, 2012, this policy has changed. The People's Bank of China has allowed commercial banks to float the deposit interest rate up to 10% of the benchmark interest rate, and the interest rate marketization has gradually begun.

Previous adjustments

1. The People's Bank of China has decided that from June 8, 2012:

(1) Adjust the upper limit of the floating range of deposit interest rate of financial institutions to benchmark interest rate 1.1 times of;

(2) Adjust the lower limit of the floating range of the loan interest rate of financial institutions to 0.8 times the benchmark interest rate.

2. The People's Bank of China has decided to adjust the lower limit of the floating range of the loan interest rate of financial institutions to 0.7 times the benchmark interest rate from July 6, 2012. Individual housing loan interest rate The floating range will not be adjusted, and financial institutions should continue to strictly implement differentiated housing credit policy We will continue to curb speculative and investment property purchases.

model analysis

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Calculation model and analysis of bank's reasonable interest rate:

Nominal GDP=actual GDP V * general price index P

According to the data, first construct the production between the actual value of GDP V, fixed capital K and labor L Functional relation ：

V=AKaL1-a

Where V is gross domestic product K is fixed for the whole society Capital stock L refers to all social employees, A and a refer to parameters. Without considering technical progress It can be considered that a and A are normal numbers. It should be noted that utility function There is only one at a particular moment, and it is difficult to express it completely and accurately with mathematical formulas. The above utility function is only an approximation of the utility function expression And needs to be improved in practice.

This gives the formula:

V=3.380527635*K*1.128590175*L-0.128590175

The error rate calculated by the above formula is 0.01567 ～ 0.109912, which is normal.

The calculation of bank interest rate is directly related to the calculation of rent, so we first need to ask for rent Calculation formula The so-called capital rent means that if a person owns K billion yuan of capital and rents it to the producer, the producer should pay her R * K rent.

because Depreciation rate Is δ, Capital depreciation Is δ * K, then Capital gains Or the return is R * K - δ * K. In the definition Return on capital or Rate of return For:

Return on capital or return on capital r=return on capital or return on capital/capital, namely:

r=(R*K-δ*K)/K=R-δ⑶

However, because a considerable part of the capital return has to pay various taxes, the interest rate i<r obtained by depositing money in the bank,

Assume that a certain tax will be levied in the return on capital r * K public investment , various taxes and fees collected accounted for Gross National Product The reasonable proportion is£, That is, the total tax amount is&pound* V， Here we should consider the existence of errors, and set Error coefficient Is b, after taxes are collected, it is the return due to capital r * K -&pound* V*b。 Its ratio to capital K can be understood as the reasonable position of bank interest rate i. Therefore, the formula is as follows:

i=r*K-£*V/K=r-£*V/K*b

Note that r=R - δ, so the above equation can be recorded as:

i=R-δ-£*V/K*b

In the single department model, the depreciation rate is set to δ=0.1, and b is the error coefficient. From the above formula, we can see that the size of interest rate is related to K/L,&pound B Relevant.

Basis for determination

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Since the reform and opening up, People's Bank of China Strengthened the use of interest rate means, and reformed by adjusting the level and structure of interest rate Interest rate management system , making the interest rate gradually become an important lever.

In May and July 1993, the People's Bank of China targeted Overheated economy , Market Price rise The range continues to rise, which has been improved twice lending rate 。 These two interest rate adjustments, in conjunction with other major economic reform measures introduced since 1994, have significantly reduced Investment scale of fixed assets The control of inflation has played an important role.

Since 1996, for China Macroeconomic regulation The People's Bank of China has reduced the deposit and loan interest rates seven times in good time. On the basis of protecting the interests of depositors Interest expense , promote national economy The steady development of has had a positive impact.

The adjustment of interest rate is actually the adjustment of interests of all parties. When determining the interest rate level, the People's Bank of China mainly considers the following factors comprehensively.

everything General price level

This is an important basis for safeguarding the interests of depositors. The interest rate is higher than the price rise rate in the same period, which can guarantee the actual situation of depositors Interest income Is a positive value; On the contrary, if the interest rate is lower than the price rise rate, the actual interest income of depositors will become negative 。 Therefore, the level of interest rate depends not only on Nominal interest rate More importantly, it depends on the positive interest rate or Negative interest rate 。

Second, interest burden

For a long time, large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises have relied on most of the funds for production and development bank loans The change of interest rate level has a direct and important impact on the cost and profit of enterprises. Therefore, the determination of interest rate level must consider the affordability of enterprises.

For example, from 1996 to 1999, the People's Bank of China lowered the deposit and loan interest rates seven times, greatly reducing the number of enterprises Loan interest Expenses of. According to incomplete statistics, the accumulated interest expenditure of enterprises has been reduced by more than 260 billion yuan

Third, interests

Interest rate adjustment Fiscal revenue and expenditure The impact of is mainly indirectly generated through the increase or decrease of the financial tax paid by enterprises and banks. Therefore, when adjusting the level of interest rate, we must consider comprehensively national finance The income and expenditure status of. Banks are operating Monetary capital Special enterprise, deposit and loan Interest margin It is the main source of bank income. The determination of interest rate level should also maintain appropriate deposit and loan interest margin to ensure the normal operation of the bank.

Fourth, supply and demand

Interest rate policy Obey National economic policy And reflect the requirements of national policies in different periods. Like the price of other commodities, the determination of interest rate level should also be considered Social funds The supply and demand of Law of supply and demand Constraints.

In addition, other factors such as term and risk are also important basis for determining interest rate level. Generally speaking, the longer the term, the higher the interest rate; The greater the risk, the higher the interest rate. On the contrary, the interest rate is lower.

along with China's economy The improvement of openness, international financial market The change of interest rate level will have an increasing impact on China's interest rate level. When studying domestic interest rate issues, we should also refer to international interest rate levels.

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Interest rate system

The interest rate system refers to a complex system composed of various interest rates according to certain rules within a certain period of time. The interest rate system is divided in different ways according to different classification marks. There are two main ways of division.

First, it depends on the interest rate economic relations Divided interest rate system. According to this classification, interest rates are mainly divided into two categories: deposit interest rate and loan interest rate.

The second is the interest rate system divided by borrowers. According to this classification, interest rates are mainly divided into: bank rate , interest rate of non bank financial institutions Bond interest rate And market interest rate, etc.

The above interest rate system and its detailed classification can be briefly shown in Figure 3-1.

[CRJP,BP]

Interest rate structure

Interest rate structure It refers to the change relationship between interest rate and term. In the deposit interest rate, various maturities Interest rate grade The design of Compound interest Factors. Implemented by China on June 10, 1999 Deposit interest rate For example, it is fixed for one year Savings deposit The interest rate is 2.25%, and the interest rate of fixed three-year savings deposit is 2.79%.

If a person has a sum of 1000 yuan in cash, he/she will deposit it in the bank for one year, withdraw the sum of principal and interest after the maturity and deposit it in the bank again for one year, withdraw the principal and interest after the maturity and deposit it in the bank in full (one year). In this way, the sum of principal and interest after three years is as follows.

The first year: sum of principal and interest=1000 * (1+2.25%)=1022.50 yuan

The second year: sum of principal and interest=1022.50 * (1+2.25%)=1045.50 yuan

The third year: sum of principal and interest=1045.50 * (1+2.25%)=1069.03 yuan

In this way, he can get 1069.03 yuan of principal and interest after three years. However, if he deposits in the bank for three years in the first year, the sum of principal and interest after three years is:

1000 * (1+2.79% * 3)=1083.7 yuan

Compared with the first deposit method, it can earn 17.02 yuan more. This means that banks have fully considered the compound interest factor when designing interest rate grades. The determination of the term interest rate of loans also basically follows this principle.

Under the condition of market economy, the formation of interest rates of all grades of deposits and loans also depends on the expectation of interest rate level. If the expected interest rate will rise, the deposit and loan interest rate of banks will rise; If the expected interest rate drops, then Long term interest rate Descending first, Short term interest rate It also decreases.

Marketization significance

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（1） Requirements of market economy

The development of market economy requires commodity Price liberalization As a special commodity, the price of funds must also be liberalized. This is market competition The need of Market economy system Objective requirements of.

（2） It can promote banks to improve their management level, and interest rate liberalization is also the need for competition between banks

Because if the interest rate is not liberalized, the interest rate of each bank will be the same. In this way, the competition will not be sufficient, and the development of banks will be difficult to achieve the survival of the fittest, which is equivalent to protecting the backwardness. After the interest rate liberalization, banks will face huge pressure from the competition of deposit and loan interest rates. At this time, if banks do not improve their management level and service quality, their profit level will be low, and banks will be in a disadvantageous position in the competition of deposit and loan interest rates.

At that time, banks with high profit levels can attract borrowers by raising deposit interest rates and lowering loan interest rates; A bank with low profit level will be in a dilemma. If it also adopts the method of raising deposit interest rate and lowering loan interest rate, it will be difficult to survive without profit support. If the deposit and loan interest rate does not move, it will lose customers.

（3） Customers can get better service

After the liberalization of interest rates, the competition among financial institutions can enable customers to get more favorable prices and better services

Interest rate classification

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According to different calculation methods Simple interest and Compound interest

Simple interest means that during the loan term, interest is calculated only on the original principal, and no additional interest is calculated for the interest generated by the principal. Compound interest refers to that during the loan term, in addition to calculating interest on the original principal, the interest generated by the principal should be recalculated into the principal and the interest should be recalculated, commonly known as“ at compound interest "。

According to and inflation Is divided into nominal interest rate and Effective interest rate

The nominal interest rate refers to the interest rate that does not exclude inflation, that is Loan contract Or the interest rate indicated on the document. The effective interest rate refers to the interest rate after the inflation factor has been eliminated.

According to different determination methods, it can be divided into Statutory interest rate and Market interest rate

Official interest rate It refers to the financial management department of the government or central bank Determined interest rate. Public interest rate Means a financial institution or banking The interest rate determined by the Association through consultation is only suitable for financial institutions participating in the Association, and not for other institutions binding force The interest rate standard is usually between the official interest rate and the market interest rate. Market interest rate refers to the market capital Lending relationship The interest rate determined by the degree of stress.

According to different national policy intentions, it can be divided into general interest rate and preferential interest rate

The general interest rate refers to the interest rate without any preferential conditions. Preferential interest rate refers to the preferential interest rate policies formulated for certain departments, industries and individuals.

according to banking business Different requirements, divided into Deposit interest rate 、 lending rate

Deposit interest rate refers to the ratio of interest and principal obtained from deposits in financial institutions. Loan interest rate refers to the interest rate from Loans from financial institutions The ratio of interest paid to principal.

According to the supply and demand relationship with market interest rates Fixed interest rate and Floating interest rate

Fixed interest rate is the interest rate that is not adjusted during the loan period. The use of fixed interest rates is convenient for both lenders and borrowers to calculate their profits and costs, but at the same time, it does not apply to situations where interest rates will change significantly during the lending period, and changes in interest rates will cause significant losses to one of the lenders.

The floating interest rate is the interest rate adjusted with the market interest rate during the borrowing period. The use of floating interest rates can avoid the risk caused by interest rate changes, but at the same time, it is not conducive to the borrowers and lenders to estimate the benefits and costs.

According to the change relationship between interest rates benchmark interest rate And arbitrage rate

The benchmark interest rate is the interest rate that plays a decisive role under the condition of coexistence of multiple interest rates Commercial bank loans Interest rate of

Interest rate calculation

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Zero deposit and lump sum withdrawal is a common method adopted by ordinary residents. Take the calculation of interest rate of zero deposit and lump sum withdrawal as an example.

The balance of petty deposit and lump sum withdrawal is increasing day by day, so we cannot simply use the method of lump sum deposit and lump sum withdrawal to calculate the interest, but can only use the simple interest annuity method. The formula is as follows:

SN =A(1+R)+A(1+2R)+…+A(1+NR)

=NA+1/2 N(N+1)AR

Where, A represents the principal deposited in each period, SN is the sum of principal and interest after N period, and SN can also be called simple interest Final value of annuity 。 In the above formula, NA is the total amount of principal deposited, and 1/2 N (N+1) AR is the total amount of interest obtained.

Generally, the petty deposit and lump sum withdrawal are deposited once a month, and the deposit amount is the same every time. Therefore, for convenience, we can convert the deposit period into a constant as follows:

If the deposit period is one year, then D=1/2 N (N+1)=1/2 × 12 × (12+1)=78

Similarly, if the deposit period is 2 years, the constant can be calculated as D=300 from the above equation, and if the deposit period is 3 years, the constant is D=666.

In this way, 1/2 N (N+1) AR=DAR, that is, the interest of lump sum deposit.

For example, you deposit 1000 yuan every month. The deposit period is one year Monthly interest rate 1.425 ‰ (the current monthly interest rate of one-year lump sum deposit and withdrawal implemented on October 29, 2004), then the annual interest at maturity is: 1000 × 78 × 1.425 ‰=111.15 (yuan)

If the depositor withdraws overdue, the interest of the balance on the overdue days will be current To calculate interest.

There is another way to calculate interest for petty savings and lump sum withdrawal, which is the quota interest method.

The so-called fixed interest method is to use the product method to calculate the interest per yuan into fixed interest, and then multiply the fixed interest per yuan by the due balance to get the amount of interest.

Fixed interest per yuan=1/2 (N+1) NAR ÷ NA

=1/2 (N+1) R

If, the monthly interest rate of the current one-year lump sum deposit is 1.425 ‰. Then, we can calculate the fixed interest per yuan as: 1/2 × (12+1) × 1.425 ‰=0.0092625

You deposit 1000 yuan every month, and the balance due is: 1000 × 12=12000 yuan

Then the interest is 12000 × 0.0092625=111.15 yuan

Deduct 20% Interest tax 22.23 yuan, and your actual interest is 88.92 yuan (Note: interest tax is not required for the interest generated after October 9, 2008)

Promote difficult problems

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interest rate

RMB Exchange rate reform and RMB Internationalization process Constantly pushing interest rate marketization forward, China's Financial reform There is no longer room for delay. We must resolutely reform. We must not only open the financial market, but also actively promote the marketization of interest rates. It has only taken 16 years for the most conservative foreign countries to make interest rate marketization, but it has been 14 years for China to do so, and the lag of interest rate marketization has become domestic market price The most fundamental factor of distortion.

However, from a macro perspective, the promotion of interest rate marketization is an integral part of China's overall financial reform, which cannot be carried out alone. It requires close cooperation with other reforms to straighten out China's market economy system.

Before that, All China Federation of Industry and Commerce The survey shows that 90% of small and medium-sized enterprises below the designated size and 95% of small and medium-sized enterprises Small and micro enterprises So far, there has been no lending relationship with banks. In the short term, it is difficult for these enterprises to Market-oriented reform of interest rate To gain benefits from the promotion of, it is still necessary to support the deep opening of the financial market, so that small loans Village Bank And other forms of capital intermediaries coexist to form a multi-level financing system.

At the same time, we should also promote all kinds of Factor market Reform Financial and tax system reform 、 income distribution System reform and the reform of the government itself. Only when the above reforms Forming resultant force At that time, the hard won achievements of financial reform can be consolidated and maintained.

Particularly important is the reform of the banking industry and enterprises. in China, Relationship financing The proportion of Ownership The financing conditions of enterprises are very different, so, Interest rate instruments stay Macroeconomy Limited role in. This is a difficult problem that China cannot avoid in the process of interest rate marketization. Sincerely, Vice President of IMF Zhu Min As mentioned, banks and enterprise behavior First marketization, then marketization of interest rate. This means that in the process of interest rate marketization, the non-public economy in various industries will be implemented“ New 36 ”Perhaps it is a more critical link!

Interest rate and exchange rate

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Interest rate policy through influence current account Impact on exchange rate. When interest rates rise, Credit crunch Loan, investment and consumption, and price drop, to some extent, curb imports, promote exports, and reduce Foreign exchange demand , add Foreign exchange supply , prompting Foreign exchange rate Decline, Home Currency Exchange rate rise 。 Contrary to the rise of interest rates, when interest rates fall, Credit expansion ， Money supply ( M2 ）Increase, stimulate investment and consumption, and promote price rise, which is not conducive to exports, but also conducive to imports.

Exchange rate changes The impact on interest rate is also indirect, that is, by influencing the domestic price level Short term capital flows And indirectly affect the interest rate.

History of changes

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interest rate

On July 9, 2013, Shibor showed a trend of overall decline, including two-week interest rate Decline The largest, down 8.20 basis points to 3.6040%, followed by the interest rate in March and the interest rate in one week, down 7.10 basis points and 6.00 basis points to 4.7230% and 3.5960% respectively, overnight and January

interest rate

Interest rates fell slightly by 0.70 basis points and 0.20 basis points to 3.2490% and 4.2980% Long term interest rate June, September and 1 year Change range Smaller, reported at 4.22155%, 4.2720% and 4.4000% respectively. Short term inter-bank Lending rate The continuous decline was large, indicating that the interbank liquidity tension in June had been eased to some extent in the first ten days of July.

market overt In terms of operation, after zero operation in the open market last week, the central bank continued to fully suspend on Tuesday Open market operation , neither repurchase nor issue Central bank ticket 。 Although the liquidity tension has greatly eased since July, Fund price Steady decline, but the central bank still suspended on Tuesday Issue central bank notes , dispelled the market's speculation about the restart of the central bank bill, and continued to release the signal of maintaining stability. According to Wind statistics, there were no central bank bills, official bills and official bills in the open market this week Reverse repurchase expire.

In terms of monetary policy“ scarcity of money ”Later, in order to appease the market, the People's Bank of China suspended open market operations at that time, and continued to slow down Inter-bank market The strength of liquidity tightening does not mean that the central bank's policy stance of "tight balance" has changed. It is expected that the central bank will closely observe domestic liquidity and Fundamental plane At the same time, it will continue to adjust liquidity through the open market.

Regarding the market's various speculations about the policy at that time, Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of the Central Bank, said that this round mobility During the tense event, the market basically correctly understood the central bank's grasp of liquidity, and the central bank will continue to adhere to Steady monetary policy And timely adjust the market liquidity to maintain the overall stability of the market. Therefore, the neutral tone of monetary policy is expected to remain unchanged in the second half of the year.

On December 13, 2023, the Federal Reserve Board of the United States ended its two-day monetary policy meeting and announced that the target range of the federal funds interest rate would remain unchanged between 5.25% and 5.5%. This is the third time since September this year that the Federal Reserve has kept this interest rate range unchanged.^[3]

On February 13, 2024, UK interest rate futures showed that the Bank of England would cut interest rates by 69 basis points before December, and 78 basis points before the release of UK labor market data.^[4]

On March 6, 2024 local time, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of Egypt decided at an extraordinary meeting to raise the overnight deposit and loan interest rate and the central bank's main operating interest rate by 600 basis points respectively. After the increase, the overnight deposit and loan interest rates were 27.25% and 28.25% respectively, and the main operating interest rate was 27.75%. The Egyptian central bank also announced that it would allow the Egyptian pound to be priced fairly according to the market mechanism.^[5]

On March 14, 2024, The Central Bank of Ukraine decided to cut the key policy interest rate from 15% to 14.5%, which will take effect from March 15, 2024.^[6]

From April 23 to 24, 2024, the Bank of Indonesia held a board meeting and decided to raise the central bank interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, deposit interest rate by 25 basis points to 5.50%, and loan interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.00%.^[7]

On June 6, 2024, it was reported that the European Central Bank would cut all three major interest rates by 25 basis points, and the main refinancing rate, marginal lending rate and deposit mechanism rate would be reduced to 4.25%, 4.50% and 3.75% respectively.^[8] On September 4, the Bank of Canada announced a 25 basis point cut in interest rates. This is the third consecutive interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada. After this cut, the latest policy interest rate is 4.25%.^[9]

On September 12, 2024 local time, the European Central Bank, headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany, decided to cut the deposit mechanism interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%; Reduce the refinancing rate by 60 basis points to 3.65%; The marginal lending rate was cut by 60 basis points to 3.9%.^[10]

On September 18, 2024 local time, the Federal Reserve Board of the United States ended its two-day monetary policy meeting and announced that it would reduce the target range of the federal funds interest rate to 4.75% to 5%, that is, 50 basis points of interest rate reduction, which is the first time that the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates since 2020.^[11]

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