The price of silicon material has risen for eight consecutive days. Industry insiders: the module production schedule may decline in September [Analysis of silicon material market]

On September 7, the Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association said that the price of silicon materials had risen again in the past week. Since July, the price of silicon material has been raised eight times. The price of silicon material at the raw material end continues to rise, while the price of silicon wafer segment is differentiated. Industry insiders said that while the supply of upstream silicon materials increased, the domestic component shipments and new installed capacity in the third quarter of this year may be lower than the market expectations, and the component production scheduling may decline in September.

(Data pictures are for reference only)

On September 7, according to the latest data of the Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, the transaction prices of N-type materials, single crystal compound materials, single crystal dense materials and single crystal cauliflower materials rose in the past week, with the average transaction price ranging from 77000 yuan/ton to 92300 yuan/ton, 0.88% to 1.36% week on week.

"The price of silicon material fell sharply in June, causing the price of the whole industry chain to fall. According to the industry survey in the past two months, silicon material enterprises, except for a few small projects, stopped production, and 96% of their production capacity was normal." Lu Jinbiao, deputy director of the expert committee of the Silicon Industry Branch of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association, said.

In 2021, the growth rate of China's silicon material output will exceed 20%

According to the forward-looking definition, the total output of industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon and monocrystalline silicon is prospectively summed up to get the change of national silicon material output. From the data, China's silicon material output showed an overall upward trend from 2016 to 2021. In 2021, China's silicon material output reached 3.2455 million tons, with a year-on-year growth of 23.6%.

Overview of import and export: trade from deficit to surplus

From the perspective of data statistics, the total import and export volume of China's silicon materials in 2017-2021 showed an overall upward trend year by year. In 2021, the total import and export volume of China's silicon materials exceeded 10 billion US dollars, reaching 10.321 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year growth of 66.34%. Contrary to the growth trend of the total trade volume, China's silicon material trade deficit has declined year by year since 2017. In 2019, the trade deficit has successfully turned into a trade surplus. China has begun to take advantage of the global silicon material import and export. In 2021, China's silicon material trade surplus will reach $984 million, an increase of more than six times year-on-year.

As for the impact of low silicon material prices on the photovoltaic industry chain, an industry analyst told First Finance that at present, the profit margin of silicon chips is more than 30%, and that of battery chips is about 10%. Except for integrated enterprises, it is difficult for modules to make profits. If silicon material prices remain low, it will be beneficial to the profit distribution of the entire industry chain.

Fang Wenzheng, an analyst in the polysilicon industry of Longzhong Information, also said in an interview with the media that it is expected that the profits in the downstream of the photovoltaic industry chain will be relatively loose in the second half of the year, the battery chips may have a relative premium, and the module sector is also expected to reap small profits.

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