The strongest growth driver in the world! Next year, Huawei's mobile phone shipments will exceed 60 million units [with an analysis of the development of the smart phone industry]

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Recently, analyst Guo Mingxuan updated the latest survey and estimate, saying that the demand of Mate 60 Pro has been strong since it was launched on August 29, and the shipment plan of 2H23 has increased by about 20% to 5.5 million - 6 million units. According to this market trend, The cumulative shipping volume of Mate 60 Pro 12 months after its launch is expected to reach at least 12 million units, which should take part of Apple's iPhone sales in the high-end smartphone market.

Excluding potential non-commercial risks and benefiting from the demand and market influence of Mate 60 Pro, Huawei's mobile phone shipments in 2023 will grow by about 65% to 38 million units year on year. Looking forward to 2024, Huawei's mobile phone shipments are expected to reach at least 60 million units, making it the strongest growth momentum among global mobile phone brands.

At present, China's smart phone market is in a downturn, and Huawei's mobile phone sales are booming, which undoubtedly injected vitality and hope into the mobile phone market. With the intensification of market competition, many brands are facing the dilemma of declining sales and market share. However, Huawei has successfully broken through and become a market leader through outstanding product performance and innovative design. The hot sales of Huawei's mobile phones not only bring intense competition pressure to other brands, but also have a positive impact on the entire mobile phone market.

——Analysis of smartphone shipments in China

From 2016 to 2022, the scale of smartphone shipments in China basically showed a downward trend, and the industry was very mature. In 2021, the scale of smartphone shipments will reach 343 million units, with a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, mainly because the demand for online office has stimulated the growth of consumer electronics such as mobile phones. In the first 11 months of 2022, China's smartphone shipments will be 237 million units, down 23% year on year.

——The proportion of 5G mobile phone shipments is increasing

The proportion of 5G mobile phone shipments in total mobile phone shipments is increasing. In 2021, the domestic mobile phone shipments will reach 351 million, up 13.9% year on year, including 266 million 5G mobile phones, up 63.5% from December 2020, accounting for 75.9% of the mobile phone shipments in the same period. From January to June 2022, 109 million 5G mobile phones were shipped, a year-on-year decrease of 14.5%, accounting for 80.2% of the mobile phone shipments in the same period.

——Competitive factions in China's smartphone industry

So far, China has become one of the largest smartphone markets in the world. In the long-term development and evolution of the smartphone market, the competition pattern of China's mobile phone market at this stage has gradually formed, that is, the domestic mobile phone camp represented by Huawei, Xiaomi, Glory, OPPO and vivo, and the foreign mobile phone brand business camp represented by Apple Samsung.

At present, the downturn in the global economic environment affects the demand for smart phones. The market size is expected to be less than 1.2 billion this year, But the focus of the market will turn to folding screen phones. Jibang Consulting believes that in 2023, the number of folding screen mobile phones is expected to reach 19.8 million, with a growth rate of 55%. But overall, the market penetration rate of folding screen mobile phones in 2023 will be about 1.7%, It is expected to increase to 5% in 2027. In the next stage, it is up to mobile phone manufacturers to respond to challenges and turn them into their own opportunities.

Prospective Economist APP Information Group

For more research and analysis of this industry, see the Analysis Report on Market Demand Forecast and Investment Strategic Planning of China's Smartphone Industry issued by the Prospective Industry Research Institute.

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