总结
我们研究了具有不可忽视的间歇性缺失数据和丢失数据的纵向测量的分位数回归(QR)。与传统均值回归相比,分位数回归能够刻画结果变量的整个条件分布,并且对异常值和误差分布的错误指定更为稳健。我们通过引入一个2 在通常的QR检查功能中进行惩罚,以缩小特定主题的截距,并向通用总体值倾斜。假设信息缺失数据通过共享潜在随机效应与纵向结果过程相关。我们使用模拟研究评估了该方法的性能,并用一项儿童艾滋病临床试验的数据进行了说明。
1.简介
纵向研究经常会受到损耗的影响,如果缺失的数据是不可忽视的或信息丰富的,这可能会导致模型参数的偏差估计。用不可忽略的缺失数据建模纵向数据已经引起了极大的关注(Wu和Carroll,1988年;Wu和Bailey,1989年;Little,1993年;Diggle和Kenward,1994年; 等)。关于纵向数据中不可忽视的辍学的最新评论见小(1995,2008);韦贝克和莫伦伯格(2000);Hogan、Roy和Korkontzelou(2004);Molenberghs和Kenward(2007年)这些方法大多侧重于均值回归。相反,对于具有不可忽视的缺失数据的纵向研究,分位数回归(QR)的研究非常有限。在本文中,我们提出了一个处理不可忽略缺失数据的共享参数QR模型,其中纵向过程的分位数回归模型通过共享常见的随机效应与缺失数据模型相关联。
自Koenker和Bassett(1978)与平均回归模型相比,QR属于稳健模型族,可以对结果的不同分位数的协变量效应进行全面评估(Koenker,2005年). 特别是,我们可以对结果的较低或较高分位数进行建模,以提供对这些回归分位数特有的协变量效应的自然评估。与传统模型不同,QR模型仅处理协变量的条件均值或中心效应,它量化了结果变量的整个条件分布。此外,QR不会对误差施加任何分布假设,除非要求误差具有零条件分位数。
通过将估计方程与辍学概率反向加权,Lipsitz等人(1997)研究了具有可忽略缺失的纵向数据的QR。注意到经典随机效应模型可以重新表述为惩罚最小二乘估计,科恩克(2004)发展了一个1-正则化QR方法将单个效果缩小为一个共同值。Geraci和Bottai(2007)提出了一种基于非对称拉普拉斯分布的纵向数据随机效应QR模型(ALD;Yu和Moyed,2001年)其中,主题内相关性由随机截获建模。分位数回归在相关数据中的其他应用包括科尔和格林(1992),Jung(1996)、和Heagerty和Pepe(1999)等等。
我们的激励性例子是一项双盲随机儿童艾滋病试验(艾滋病临床试验组128,Brady等人,1996年),旨在比较低剂量(90 mg/m)的疗效2/剂量)的齐多夫定与更高剂量(180mg/m2/剂量)用于治疗轻度至中度症状的HIV感染儿童(3个月至12岁)。共有424名受试者被纳入研究,其中216人被随机分为低剂量组,208人被分为高剂量组。在研究开始时以及每12周至200周收集参与者的CD4细胞计数。对于HIV感染患者,CD4细胞计数通常用于监测HIV感染的进展,CD4淋巴细胞计数下降较慢代表更好的治疗效果。研究两个剂量组CD4细胞计数的纵向轨迹具有科学意义。由于这两种剂量的齐多夫定对不同CD4细胞计数的患者可能有不同的疗效,因此可以自然地使用QR方法检查CD4细胞数随时间的条件分布的不同分位数的治疗效果。
儿童艾滋病研究的一个突出特点是,有大量的间歇性数据丢失和大量的辍学者,这使得分析变得复杂。对于低剂量组,只有52%的受试者完成了3年的随访,而对于高剂量组,这一比例为45%。此外,大约50%的受试者经历了一个或多个间歇性CD4细胞计数缺失。在艾滋病研究中,缺失的数据通常与CD4细胞计数的水平或潜在变化率有关,例如,病情较重的患者通常会经历CD4细胞数急剧下降,因此更有可能退出研究(Hogan和Laird,1997年). 这些类型的缺失数据通常是不可忽略的(Wu和Carroll,1988年;De Gruttola和Tu,1994年;霍根和莱尔德,1997年). 在初步分析中,我们分别对每个受试者应用了中值回归模型,并绘制了与辍学时间相对应的估计个人斜率。如所示图1,斜率较低的受试者往往提前退出,特别是在低剂量组,这表明缺失的数据可能会提供信息。为了处理不可忽略的缺失数据,我们提出了一个共享参数QR模型,其中通过惩罚QR的标准检查函数,将单个级别的QR参数收缩为一个总体值。通过观察常规检验函数和非对称拉普拉斯分布之间的联系,我们将惩罚检验函数转换为似然框架中的随机效应模型。我们假设缺失数据过程通过共享潜在的特定主题随机效应与纵向结果过程相关联。在贝叶斯范式中,基于所提出模型的估计和推理可以使用马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(MCMC)过程轻松实现。
![CD4细胞计数的平方根与退出时间的个体中值回归斜率。](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_f1.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=yNsSSxFat0UDhRCtFmUbj5lp6bMGVPcq-c5LSzO1U4NAkoqKM6~3jNeAGwCSZKDhEJxawETjvGwQUPyOxSGhR~iuQkrWfbawQcFKGl1ckikWjXz3ykzjy-kGfcjpBO0BJOGcIU6J~4KV3sYGvx02gMZUJR8Ghmw8ngrj6b8saOpLsr60O1H~rHzcGyi7c6WNYJmKTZk0YtAZa6Te88u-szIrIBUKluM3T2N5Yqt6M8Zb~BVy1ISABGZq9dJBy3hQgj55MguLSHvoGYlForktDEEyXxFK-NVet~4XpKGb4H2oHnLi~cap-~gILww0Ggxp1d9BPRrnRx~eHH8TBIy3fw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA)
图1
CD4细胞计数的平方根与退出时间的个体中值回归斜率。
在第2节对于具有不可忽略的间歇性缺失数据和丢失数据的纵向数据,我们提出了共享参数随机效应QR模型。我们还概述了贝叶斯MCMC估计过程。在第3节,我们进行了仿真研究以检查所提出模型的性能第4节,我们使用儿童艾滋病数据来说明我们的方法。最后,我们在第5节.
2.方法
2.1分位数回归
让年我 表示感兴趣的结果,并让
表示受试者的相应协变量向量我,用于我 = 1 , … , n个τth QR模型的形式为
其中
是的逆累积分布函数年我 给定
在τ和0<τ<1处进行评估。回归系数向量
通过最小化进行估计
其中ρτ(u个) = u个{τ− 我(u个 < 0)}.
检查功能(1)与ALD密切相关;看见Koenker和Machado(1999),Yu和Moyeed(2001)、和Yu和Stander(2007)。标度参数为1的ALD的密度函数为
其中τ决定分位数水平,μ是位置参数。最小化方程式(1)等于最大化的似然函数年我 通过假设年我 来自ALD
.
检查函数和ALD之间的关系可以用于在似然框架中重新构造QR方法,Koenker和Machado(1999)提出了一种基于似然的分位数回归的良好性检验。Yu和Moyeed(2001)开发了贝叶斯分位数回归,以及Yu和Stander(2007)研究了删失数据下Tobit QR模型的贝叶斯估计方法。最近,Geraci和Bottai(2007)提出了一种纵向数据的随机干涉QR模型。
2.2纵向数据建模
考虑纵向研究,其中n个 受试者在J型 预先指定的时间点,让年ij公司 表示结果我第个受试者在j个第个时间点,针对我=================================================================1 , … , n个, j个 = 1 , … , J型。由于数据间歇性缺失或丢失,只能观察到一部分结果测量,我们使用
表示一组时间点年ij公司 观察到。对于τth回归分位数,我们建议如下2-惩罚检查功能,
其中
和
是可能共享公共成分的协变量向量
是未知主题特定效果的载体,以及
是对称非奇异矩阵。通过引入惩罚项
在里面(3),我们缩小了个体效应
接近0,从而跨学科借力。收缩量由调整参数控制
.
惩罚检查功能(3)可以将其转换为随机效应模型的似然框架,如下所示:
重新计算出2 罚款
因为随机效应类似于将三次平滑样条曲线表示为线性混合模型,其中粗糙度惩罚表示为正常随机效应(Ruppert、Wand和Carroll,2003年;和Welham,2008年).
值得注意的是,随机效应模型(4)只是一个工作 模型中,ALD和正态分布假设施加于年ij公司 和
本质上是人为的。这些分布假设仅用于确保,以调谐参数为条件
,模型的可能性(4)匹配中的惩罚检查功能(3)因此,可以通过最大化随机效应模型的可能性来最小化惩罚检查函数。这样的重新计算允许我们使用通常的似然函数。此外,调谐参数
可以直接确定,这类似于使用平滑样条的随机效应模型表示,通过限制最大似然或贝叶斯方法自动确定平滑参数。调谐参数
通常被视为滋扰,这控制了个体效应对人口效应的收缩。
工作模式(4)提供了由Geraci和Bottai(2007),因为我们允许通过随机截距和斜率绘制特定主题的曲线。此外,我们没有使用期望最大化算法和bootstrap方法来估计参数和相关方差,而是使用贝叶斯MCMC方法进行估计,该方法根据模型参数的后验样本自动生成后验方差估计。
2.3建模不可忽略的缺失数据
为了解释不可忽视的缺失数据,我们对间歇性缺失数据和辍学过程进行建模,并将其与纵向结果过程联系起来。为此,我们定义了缺失数据状态的指示器
我们假设j个 = 1适用于所有受试者,辍学是一种吸收状态,即一旦受试者辍学,我们将不再观察该受试者的测量结果。我们还需要
因为从定义上讲,间歇性的失学不能立即导致辍学。
我们将缺失数据过程与纵向结果过程联系起来,假设它们具有相同的随机效应
特别是,我们使用转移概率对缺失数据过程进行建模,如下所示:
其中
是协变量的向量
是其相关回归参数,以及
控制随机效应之间的关系
以及缺失的数据处理。受试者缺失数据过程条件似然的对数我 是
在主题之后我 退出,剩下的秒ij公司的未定义。
通过共享随机效果
在纵向结果过程中,缺失数据模型解释了不可忽视的缺失数据机制(Little,1995年). 我们的模型属于一类共享参数模型,这些模型已在具有不可忽视辍学的纵向数据的平均回归背景下进行了广泛研究。有关示例,请参见Wu和Carroll(1988);De Gruttola和Tu(1994);Follman和Wu(1995);Ten Have等人(1998年);Rizopoulos、Verbeke和Molenberghs(2008); 在其他中。共享参数模型的理由是,纵向结果过程和缺失数据过程之间的关联完全由潜在的特定主题轨迹捕获。换句话说,以潜在轨迹为条件,缺失数据过程独立于结果过程。
2.4后验估计
让
表示观测数据;观测数据的可能性由下式给出
在贝叶斯范式中,让
表示未知参数的先验分布;这些参数的联合后验分布由下式给出
我们将非信息性先验分布赋给未知参数,如下所示,
其中WI(q个, c(c) 我)表示Wishart分布q个 自由度和比例矩阵c(c) 我 带有c(c) 一个小常数和我 单位矩阵。
我们使用吉布斯采样器获得未知参数的后验分布。模型参数的完整条件分布,除了
,没有关闭的窗体。自适应抑制Metropolis采样算法(Gilks,Best和Tan,1995年)用于从这些分布中进行采样。我们使用轨迹图的图形检查和盖尔曼和鲁宾(1992)。计算机程序是用C++编写的,可根据要求提供。
3.仿真研究
我们进行了仿真研究,以评估该模型的性能。我们通过样本量模拟了儿童艾滋病临床试验的设置n个 = 200,并假设每个受试者有14次预定的纵向测量。我们模拟了模型中的数据
其中x个ij公司 是标准化测量时间x个伊吉 = (j个 − 7.5)/4.18适用于j个 = 1,…,14.在该模型中,我们假设缺失数据过程通过随机斜率与结果过程相关b条1我.
我们模拟了误差εij公司 从三种不同的分布:标准正态分布N个(0,1),at吨(3) 具有三个自由度的分布2(3) 具有三个自由度的分布。我们生成了随机截距b条0我 ∼ N个(0,4)和随机斜率b条1我 来自四种不同的分布:N个(0,2),at吨(3) 标度参数为的分布
,单峰偏态混合分布0.7N个(1.3, 1.62) + 0.3N个(−3.033, 1.62)和双峰混合分布0.45N个(−2, 1.52) + 0.55 N个(1.636,1.52). 在模型中(5),参数γ(k个)1 确定缺失机制:如果γ(k个)1 = 0,缺失数据随机缺失(MAR);如果γ(k个)1≠0,缺失数据不可忽略。我们考虑过
和(−6,1,−8.9,1.5)分别模拟MAR和不可忽略的缺失数据的情况。的值
和
平均有50%的受试者经历了一次或多次间歇性数据丢失或辍学。我们设置β0===========================================================2, β1 = 4,并在每个配置下模拟了500个复制数据集。
我们比较了共享参数QR和随机效应QR(4)没有调整丢失的数据。作为基准,我们还对删除前的完整数据进行了随机效应QR拟合。在表1,我们给出了β的模拟结果1包括缺失数据不可忽略时的偏差、平均标准误差和95%可信区间(CI)的覆盖概率。在各种误差和随机效应分布中,随机效应QR产生β的有偏估计1以及较差的覆盖概率。偏差范围为−0.46至−0.97,大多数覆盖概率低于5%。相比之下,共享参数QR考虑了缺失数据,从而有效地纠正了估计偏差,并且覆盖概率相当准确。正如所料,基于共享参数QR的估计比理想删除前QR下的估计效率低,但效率损失很小。例如,当错误跟随t吨(3) 分布和随机效应均为正态
在删除前的QR下为0.11,在共享参数QR下则为0.13。当缺失数据为MAR(结果未显示)时,基于随机效应QR和共享参数QR的估计都具有可忽略的偏差和合理的覆盖概率,但共享参数QRs由于其复杂的模型结构而效率稍低。β的结果0除了
在随机效应下,QR大大小于
因为辍学过程只取决于随机斜率b条1我换句话说,观测数据是关于β的完整数据的偏差样本1,但不是β0.
表1β的估计1 在模拟研究中,在不同的误差和随机效应分布下,包括95%置信区间的偏差、平均标准误差和覆盖概率
εij公司. | b条1我. | QR模型. | τ = 0.25. | τ = 0.5. |
---|
偏见. | 东南方. | CP(%). | 偏见. | 东南方. | CP(%). |
---|
N个(0, 1) | N个(0, 2) | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.10 | 95.4 | 0 | 0.10 | 95.2 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.47 | 0.11 | 0.8 | −0.53 | 0.10 | 0 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 96.8 | −0.04 | 0.12 | 94 |
| t吨(3) | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 93.8 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 93.4 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.70 | 0.15 | 0.4 | −0.56 | 0.15 | 4.6 |
| | 共享参数 | −0.06 | 0.16 | 94.2 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 95.4 |
| 倾斜 | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.16 | 94.8 | −0.01 | 0.16 | 94.6 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.86 | 0.16 | 0.2 | −0.66 | 0.16 | 2.4 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.03 | 0.18 | 94.2 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 90 |
| 双模态 | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.18 | 95.4 | 0 | 0.18 | 95.4 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.97 | 0.18 | 0 | −0.72 | 0.19 | 2 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.03 | 0.21 | 95 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 92.4 |
t吨(3) | N个(0, 2) | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.11 | 94.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 94.8 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.46 | 0.11 | 0.3 | −0.53 | 0.11 | 0.2 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 95 | −0.04 | 0.12 | 95.8 |
| t吨(3) | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.17 | 95 | 0 | 0.17 | 94.6 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.70 | 0.15 | 0.6 | −0.56 | 0.15 | 2.4 |
| | 共享参数 | −0.05 | 0.16 | 95.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 96.2 |
| 倾斜 | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.16 | 94.4 | 0 | 0.16 | 94.2 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.87 | 0.16 | 0.2 | −0.67 | 0.17 | 0.8 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 93.4 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 90 |
| 双模态 | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.18 | 95 | 0.01 | 0.18 | 94.8 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.97 | 0.19 | 0 | −0.73 | 0.19 | 2.2 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.06 | 0.21 | 95 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 90.2 |
χ2(3) | N个(0, 2) | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.11 | 93.4 | 0 | 0.11 | 94 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.54 | 0.11 | 0 | −0.55 | 0.12 | 0.4 |
| | 共享参数 | −0.03 | 0.13 | 94.2 | −0.05 | 0.13 | 93.2 |
| t吨(3) | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 96.8 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 97.2 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.51 | 0.18 | 16 | −0.58 | 0.17 | 8 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 95.6 | 0.01 | 0.18 | 96.6 |
| 倾斜 | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.18 | 94 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 96.2 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.64 | 0.21 | 16.2 | −0.74 | 0.19 | 3 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.04 | 0.22 | 94 | −0.05 | 0.19 | 96 |
| 双模态 | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 96.2 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 94.8 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.74 | 0.19 | 3 | −0.82 | 0.19 | 1.4 |
| | 共享参数 | −0.05 | 0.19 | 96 | −0.12 | 0.19 | 90 |
εij公司. | b条1我. | QR模型. | τ=0.25. | τ = 0.5. |
---|
偏见. | 东南方. | CP(%). | 偏见. | 东南方. | CP(%). |
---|
N个(0, 1) | N个(0, 2) | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.10 | 95.4 | 0 | 0.10 | 95.2 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.47 | 0.11 | 0.8 | −0.53 | 0.10 | 0 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 96.8 | −0.04 | 0.12 | 94 |
| t吨(3) | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 93.8 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 93.4 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.70 | 0.15 | 0.4 | −0.56 | 0.15 | 4.6 |
| | 共享参数 | −0.06 | 0.16 | 94.2 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 95.4 |
| 倾斜 | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.16 | 94.8 | −0.01 | 0.16 | 94.6 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.86 | 0.16 | 0.2 | −0.66 | 0.16 | 2.4 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.03 | 0.18 | 94.2 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 90 |
| 双模态 | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.18 | 95.4 | 0 | 0.18 | 95.4 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.97 | 0.18 | 0 | −0.72 | 0.19 | 2 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.03 | 0.21 | 95 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 92.4 |
t吨(3) | N个(0, 2) | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.11 | 94.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 94.8 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.46 | 0.11 | 0.3 | −0.53 | 0.11 | 0.2 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 95 | −0.04 | 0.12 | 95.8 |
| t吨(3) | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.17 | 95 | 0 | 0.17 | 94.6 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.70 | 0.15 | 0.6 | −0.56 | 0.15 | 2.4 |
| | 共享参数 | −0.05 | 0.16 | 95.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 96.2 |
| 倾斜 | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.16 | 94.4 | 0 | 0.16 | 94.2 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.87 | 0.16 | 0.2 | −0.67 | 0.17 | 0.8 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 93.4 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 90 |
| 双模态 | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.18 | 95 | 0.01 | 0.18 | 94.8 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.97 | 0.19 | 0 | −0.73 | 0.19 | 2.2 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.06 | 0.21 | 95 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 90.2 |
χ2(3) | N个(0, 2) | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.11 | 93.4 | 0 | 0.11 | 94 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.54 | 0.11 | 0 | −0.55 | 0.12 | 0.4 |
| | 共享参数 | −0.03 | 0.13 | 94.2 | −0.05 | 0.13 | 93.2 |
| t吨(3) | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 96.8 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 97.2 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.51 | 0.18 | 16 | −0.58 | 0.17 | 8 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 95.6 | 0.01 | 0.18 | 96.6 |
| 倾斜 | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.18 | 94 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 96.2 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.64 | 0.21 | 16.2 | −0.74 | 0.19 | 3 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.04 | 0.22 | 94 | −0.05 | 0.19 | 96 |
| 双模态 | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 96.2 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 94.8 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.74 | 0.19 | 3 | −0.82 | 0.19 | 1.4 |
| | 共享参数 | −0.05 | 0.19 | 96 | −0.12 | 0.19 | 90 |
表1β的估计1 在仿真研究中,在不同的误差和随机效应分布下,包括偏差、平均标准误差(SE)和95%置信区间的覆盖概率(CP)
εij公司. | b条1我. | QR模型. | τ = 0.25. | τ=0.5. |
---|
偏见. | 东南方. | CP(%). | 偏见. | 东南方. | CP(%). |
---|
N个(0, 1) | N个(0, 2) | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.10 | 95.4 | 0 | 0.10 | 95.2 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.47 | 0.11 | 0.8 | −0.53 | 0.10 | 0 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 96.8 | −0.04 | 0.12 | 94 |
| t吨(3) | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 93.8 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 93.4 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.70 | 0.15 | 0.4 | −0.56 | 0.15 | 4.6 |
| | 共享参数 | −0.06 | 0.16 | 94.2 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 95.4 |
| 倾斜 | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.16 | 94.8 | −0.01 | 0.16 | 94.6 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.86 | 0.16 | 0.2 | −0.66 | 0.16 | 2.4 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.03 | 0.18 | 94.2 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 90 |
| 双模态 | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.18 | 95.4 | 0 | 0.18 | 95.4 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.97 | 0.18 | 0 | −0.72 | 0.19 | 2 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.03 | 0.21 | 95 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 92.4 |
t吨(3) | N个(0, 2) | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.11 | 94.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 94.8 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.46 | 0.11 | 0.3 | −0.53 | 0.11 | 0.2 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 95 | −0.04 | 0.12 | 95.8 |
| t吨(3) | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.17 | 95 | 0 | 0.17 | 94.6 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.70 | 0.15 | 0.6 | −0.56 | 0.15 | 2.4 |
| | 共享参数 | −0.05 | 0.16 | 95.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 96.2 |
| 倾斜 | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.16 | 94.4 | 0 | 0.16 | 94.2 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.87 | 0.16 | 0.2 | −0.67 | 0.17 | 0.8 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 93.4 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 90 |
| 双模态 | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.18 | 95 | 0.01 | 0.18 | 94.8 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.97 | 0.19 | 0 | −0.73 | 0.19 | 2.2 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.06 | 0.21 | 95 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 90.2 |
χ2(3) | N个(0,2) | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.11 | 93.4 | 0 | 0.11 | 94 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.54 | 0.11 | 0 | −0.55 | 0.12 | 0.4 |
| | 共享参数 | −0.03 | 0.13 | 94.2 | −0.05 | 0.13 | 93.2 |
| t吨(3) | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 96.8 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 97.2 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.51 | 0.18 | 16 | −0.58 | 0.17 | 8 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 95.6 | 0.01 | 0.18 | 96.6 |
| 倾斜 | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.18 | 94 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 96.2 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.64 | 0.21 | 16.2 | −0.74 | 0.19 | 3 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.04 | 0.22 | 94 | −0.05 | 0.19 | 96 |
| 双模态 | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 96.2 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 94.8 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.74 | 0.19 | 3 | −0.82 | 0.19 | 1.4 |
| | 共享参数 | −0.05 | 0.19 | 96 | −0.12 | 0.19 | 90 |
εij公司. | b条1我. | QR模型. | τ = 0.25. | τ = 0.5. |
---|
偏见. | 东南方. | CP(%). | 偏差. | 东南方. | CP(%). |
---|
N个(0, 1) | N个(0, 2) | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.10 | 95.4 | 0 | 0.10 | 95.2 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.47 | 0.11 | 0.8 | −0.53 | 0.10 | 0 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 96.8 | −0.04 | 0.12 | 94 |
| t吨(3) | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 93.8 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 93.4 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.70 | 0.15 | 0.4 | −0.56 | 0.15 | 4.6 |
| | 共享参数 | −0.06 | 0.16 | 94.2 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 95.4 |
| 倾斜 | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.16 | 94.8 | −0.01 | 0.16 | 94.6 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.86 | 0.16 | 0.2 | −0.66 | 0.16 | 2.4 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.03 | 0.18 | 94.2 | 0.11 | 0.19 | 90 |
| 双模态 | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.18 | 95.4 | 0 | 0.18 | 95.4 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.97 | 0.18 | 0 | −0.72 | 0.19 | 2 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.03 | 0.21 | 95 | 0.12 | 0.21 | 92.4 |
t吨(3) | N个(0, 2) | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.11 | 94.6 | 0 | 0.10 | 94.8 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.46 | 0.11 | 0.3 | −0.53 | 0.11 | 0.2 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 95 | −0.04 | 0.12 | 95.8 |
| t吨(3) | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.17 | 95 | 0 | 0.17 | 94.6 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.70 | 0.15 | 0.6 | −0.56 | 0.15 | 2.4 |
| | 共享参数 | −0.05 | 0.16 | 95.6 | 0 | 0.17 | 96.2 |
| 倾斜 | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.16 | 94.4 | 0 | 0.16 | 94.2 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.87 | 0.16 | 0.2 | −0.67 | 0.17 | 0.8 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.04 | 0.18 | 93.4 | 0.12 | 0.19 | 90 |
| 双模态 | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.18 | 95 | 0.01 | 0.18 | 94.8 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.97 | 0.19 | 0 | −0.73 | 0.19 | 2.2 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.06 | 0.21 | 95 | 0.14 | 0.21 | 90.2 |
χ2(3) | N个(0, 2) | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.11 | 93.4 | 0 | 0.11 | 94 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.54 | 0.11 | 0 | −0.55 | 0.12 | 0.4 |
| | 共享参数 | −0.03 | 0.13 | 94.2 | −0.05 | 0.13 | 93.2 |
| t吨(3) | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 96.8 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 97.2 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.51 | 0.18 | 16 | −0.58 | 0.17 | 8 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 95.6 | 0.01 | 0.18 | 96.6 |
| 倾斜 | 删除之前 | 0 | 0.18 | 94 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 96.2 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.64 | 0.21 | 16.2 | −0.74 | 0.19 | 3 |
| | 共享参数 | 0.04 | 0.22 | 94 | −0.05 | 0.19 | 96 |
| 双模态 | 删除之前 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 96.2 | −0.01 | 0.17 | 94.8 |
| | 随机效应 | −0.74 | 0.19 | 3 | −0.82 | 0.19 | 1.4 |
| | 共享参数 | −0.05 | 0.19 | 96 | −0.12 | 0.19 | 90 |
仿真研究表明,基于共享参数QR的回归参数估计对误差和随机效应分布都具有鲁棒性。有趣的是,当随机效应的真实分布不正常时,如何调整随机效应的估计值。图2描述随机斜率的后验分布b条1我 在τ=0.25和0.5的各种真分布下。当b条1我 是不正常的b条1我 可以根据真实情况自适应调整,为估计β的稳健性提供了可能的解释1 在各种分布下的随机效应。的方差b条1我,比如λ1,是调整参数,通常被视为一个讨厌的参数。我们观察到λ的估计1 基于共享参数QR的偏差通常比基于随机效应QR的小得多;见Web附录中的表A1。
![随机效应b1i在不同真实分布下的后验分布。](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_f2.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=IM2zdJdHwM9tdgG993IE-4CHt3dZ9khLvDJR2vdlHNaK28Ba1lQLLTRuKzF-6lmBx-OYpmanJHhgY4Yg2-9DxUzp-n1ffYh1dIJpZ5qj3d0N6FV1wbY5US4ZLFEo7-buQMRak8NLtBmTC-BIl3M6EGfKbVo3psCssjEDGHGOVvbiLTZ1TcpOOV-Eds59SQYNxjC9CSQomN~oUHLainUjlEuutUL6D0VCQj3MJ-4RE1MxkMU8vkM13Q5ocYDE61gPlVs6p59i8YnSiuX9bF1hWiNFfd75iu97Mm-yG3uyIqiyDM0N232hav-5BeC2wK5-9RhpLWvTbUDVpRBo2lcqeQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA)
图2
随机效应的后验分布b条1我 在不同的真实分布下b条1我.
4.应用
4.1数据分析
我们用儿童艾滋病数据说明了所提出的方法。让t吨ij公司 成为j个第次测量时间我第个主题年ij公司 是CD4细胞计数的平方根t吨ij公司、和x个我 是二元处理指示剂x个我 = 0表示高剂量手臂。在τth回归分位数处,我们考虑
其中β表征了种群水平轨迹b条0我 ∼ N个(0, λ0)和b条1我 ∼ N个(0, λ1). 缺失数据模型由
在MCMC程序中,我们在1000次老化迭代后记录了10000次抽签。为了评估马尔可夫链的收敛性,我们计算了基于三个初始值过于分散的独立马尔可夫链条的斜率的Gelman–Rubin收敛统计量,即收缩因子。经过1000次老化迭代后,收缩因子的值变得非常接近1,表明这些链的收敛。
表2显示了在共享参数QR模型和随机效应QR模型下,τ=0.25、0.5和0.75回归分位数的模型参数估计值。在这两个模型中,β的估计1在所有三个分位数上与0无显著差异,表明通过随机分组,两个治疗组的基线CD4计数很好地平衡。
QR模型. | . | τ=0.25. | τ = 0.5. | τ = 0.75. |
---|
美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. | 美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. | 美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. |
---|
随机效应 | β0 | 21.40 | (20.40, 22.41) | 23.62 | (22.56, 24.68) | 25.97 | (24.86, 27.08) |
| β1 | 0.14 | (−1.84, 2.11) | 0.19 | (−1.94,2.31) | 0.24 | (−2.01, 2.47) |
| β2 | −3.19 | (−3.54, −2.86) | −3.54 | (−3.89, −3.20) | −3.82 | (−4.19, −3.46) |
| β三 | 0.78 | (0.11, 1.45) | 0.82 | (0.13, 1.51) | 0.83 | (0.127,1.55) |
| λ0 | 104.49 | (90.94, 120.45) | 117.98 | (102.61, 135.76) | 129.61 | (112.56, 149.17) |
| λ1 | 9.49 | (7.83, 11.38) | 10.67 | (8.86, 12.75) | 11.09 | (9.14, 13.36) |
共享参数 | β0 | 21.09 | (2007年7月20日,2008年8月22日) | 23.33 | (22.24, 24.39) | 25.58 | (24.45, 26.70) |
| β1 | 0.17 | (−1.86, 2.14) | 0.21 | (−1.92, 2.28) | 0.27 | (−1.98, 2.47) |
| β2 | −3.40 | (−3.76, −3.06) | −3.75 | (−4.11, −3.40) | −4.09 | (−4.47,−3.72) |
| β三 | 0.77 | (0.06, 1.44) | 0.81 | (0.08, 1.52) | 0.84 | (0.11, 1.57) |
| λ0 | 105.87 | (92.09, 121.59) | 119.77 | (104.40, 137.65) | 132.02 | (114.93、151.51) |
| λ1 | 9.55 | (7.92, 11.41) | 10.95 | (9.10, 13.12) | 11.69 | (9.68, 14.04) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu53.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=xJj3NOel2k5TgzTr5nR~~mGQjEJ3pgfDWI-kVONe3w2KMs5wAdgmsqQksVLbd7lBweiIHhMESp1jCbDHxNmNDelAD-8ncRIPkusOALK~n4x4eyM-~6CO75gnGscEQ98cMEdE2rU7yVvsIFYDmVvhRiSEInnbCSiv~AuhOFoUWOy2m0tCu8raRKP-yQcwMDVt3hd63qCjGbTFin2aTkauDjGOHAnvncXPIkA22YrCs6XaZkjXCablkbuqVtRSk2j6lEEIrv8j7BCXV9pDGbFoAuo2xNzvfW55htE60AQio-3Fy4AVBRZ~OOCW~pxxRu4hpcELkERtntd8GxJlsNi6Vg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −3.06 | (−3.57, −2.59) | −3.00 | (−3.49, −2.52) | −3.05 | (−3.54, −2.59) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu54.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=pNQlm7ue0CGSY5FeR-4K8GjH4VquCWoWk2fZQsHSLNjsHYInNjgr6VTt1w8aVwxOIH5JyLz4SMkMNVVUj5o5efpyl1hmkvfxcXc5ZAU5IVSJ071MBOW5HiDnQJiKvyw2WzLbnSSGCejOqDwwE5cALQB4zn4R6sOmBWCKu6k04RkY-UvReyvKT7inGh6J7WPtOFB2785MtvN2mIGKne5Kc1nI8R5LcfdwswIxaZGfNB7ZwFBGXqOlCpAJb~AiOlOwOfCdJnX3aws382dq91vq8cOmSoGsj-ngdfWozfopGkg~Uh2S5vwcquECt1eH~445AsZnNR2qHUVP8DkkCLvaAw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.03 | (−0.08, 0.02) | −0.01 | (−0.06、0.04) | −0.03 | (−0.07, 0.02) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu55.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=4l-gfnhe-LWlmEGjo2VUSkuMcp2w9rDkjF9~QzMiPVJvDn9YjUYjB-WfYAyG8mgPzkjoTFrEvmTIucuFcfF0m4Zl9~d-LKq70nkTVR5PF2fJzMM5FBSHQSsJhn7q10WYxLeX3k9g~yWNC9XvmqDSdykx9P8d-WPiJAaour52iy01Z95IJnqwyiWYWzL43LRwkxsIXkdv1D4pjI6idJmzSA9vHLD4gP9-zsSeC7PnOlUO45UlhRwJ8cFwud2idvP6nfsC1MAZSagSIkMkHUW9-iIYlR6RL0zbzW6-gohejD7jKvaGksG7HliCeJwOieC6gO-2RIsXOuV9i3eB717AFA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0.02 | (0.00, 0.03) | 0.01 | (0.00, 0.03) | 0.01 | (0.00, 0.03) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu56.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=v0biPIDPw0Cyt~dM9nhtoEH6SzZTSiuvrQIB5a3GvO1LZswUYnFoumDxyCWKfd4yf7d3jY-KrVC-x6KgndfuW7hIFAHw0bH8D2L9rkI4TI4SWrVbtT7f-rwJCVTjhV81OZSUUmpOecMMeB52688JKOqWTlknxBG39wggEDsbt5mrLjNmrYHYaoNZJnYwyHAR1AKC1qL3AsV7xZ1BC3xKxXmOB2vv-IVC4okPp6dKcMsmn1Z4tOyJ8zabWishsYiXP6bx4MN5cvob6gJaLGekWdSkf7Qcm8~jF40Gpj1FFlDsPCKpbnv1vEqu8UkssJhACnZTPXZx3EsjQhw-9CVPng__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0.12 | (−0.51, 0.79) | 0.06 | (−0.57, 0.70) | 0.12 | (−0.52, 0.77) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu57.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=vvmYp0P5zqKDui2wdEzAZj7542uk3w6o54wOao51miIzsfwp~Ii4O4vG1W6Xu4cUOXte2FtPZ5LObSG3o~vjWHiNSC6fLsyf25DSOqd~AEp2kmTiHcYZkO87I7GOfKlTc3Me2HqTs7ixzWq10V85EgLnekbI0rz52ExiQLfsdmuLSQHHFRyro7-ZAoAVrtLXjW3s4yO1iRMYeboxYQnFewfRRqSFrOMbHT1D6MiXl31cZkg~XpoaDeriGmencCs8Ah2FoGP-YVty1TUZAwDRLr95L7j7NiixHJQghmsQY3N6VF3GNQdrLmHfjmpe1QZHRV~aIv~3ouI-VcCQBiZYTg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.03 | (−0.11, 0.05) | −0.02 | (−0.10, 0.05) | 0.01 | (−0.07,0.08) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu58.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=nx9Qx9UYIQdRxFiDJB9iQ9ydVzjeJcLv38QlmiDVTkeSugpkhE-PZqE~g3Y0TMjT5VX-AEqYe2ie2ODYfGQSgDsSJVSkE9fX4c4VGTAktePZIiLVOrHrCLD9xXNzNEXbtZbNadStM8Mvx1ShIqb6~9xuEa9yestx1uNI6uDVeyLm1lyWOGvPr2CDSOgUV-tjllbWoYnYcnXx-KB8CBEsA0v~M7iErOSeDG1wJSNSyFgZMW3lFi4gkHhahXkpaE~xlfR-LdgR9-bJPwoO2s0Nu9k~-YhZTFhR8d-Qn7eLbfIP2gVW-HQHUbMEftmrBaMQfKBN6nuXSGcu1Q5ScB0rIw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.02) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.02) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.03) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu59.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=AtTnpjsA8bEu-a~GmtbReZJ3JXF6GTf9ERmEjWhAsXCtaraMddYvMNu2rTrM7Y7O-84RakfyhySGosb1uNG1ltLsqlMDEAaz2Pzlh03tJOEjryEeuD3NQ8zS9AonkGaFIhdtgavX4CSISDel5B~XhpF4v5qi4HyIc8xaAQgKheXyM~62yg-HX07hVnUTfQDDS56YRv1vBDBcrYmJa1n~6JOkrX7PpRwkOtKfh96MwV~MEkPMnMyYfPxAY82Mftj5fGXecJIgHnx6x1MnYtS4rhloNojgBtWSQCNAq3jdbC19uxO5dhE5GD4pq18qtiZ-NeRg6XE~EoFNN3Bncl3Xcg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −2.05 | (−2.53, −1.59) | −2.05 | (−2.53,−1.58) | −2.07 | (−2.59, −1.56) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu60.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=OiNEG0vjY0vgP1u8G10mL43A-hFAExOOQEf4TWNfLJ6kSfeLqjRS3kErLTJtvkcOpIbzDQOrgmarfpDjXPtk-XDI-4y-cprnsmig49P7LgUsDfCqSBF8DMh3g3~OsSJklgfyjH8xfE6EnjvVSVRXadwj16mRpC1TMTthKNjPCEvGnmS5rVhnU8Ix7bd4dYa61yd8xP2qP7ajuAvVVP2tx-bdObfnAw8fvD3BjIkvxie5wD9CXDcNGvO~4gi-D0UIed0a-M-pcTDo6tLGs2phLgMOS0vVvevnAOBBDONqAUvrdW6QRouGuSGrGWfV5zvLJdcjBrSwbu-AbF3AUsafXw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.09 | (−0.14, −0.03) | −0.09 | (−0.14, −0.04) | −0.11 | (-0.16, −0.05) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu61.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=gB-GbFgqFpIhG7ngvRaOaX8WvG0gRIbDvp4FR2mDmyDbyazZAb683m3ryAmlOInio48HOLe6NSMPKyS0RDY2f-F1m4yNmWcnsJKrwAht82tndVQyWEpEMAKaKMBt34I~thDNdQXUzV7-XkHgAqqG3N1YOPmfrUVbw0IsLceES0XQ4z07iMpT8D4~y6EbkKRqOfk7vwxrs-fo-mBdNERe42uJH5R06POpr2FoXUMwpe43dFELzd63dIKk-7Xz-gpCC9Om7kB2Qfbx4zNfbbMYC-M-ETOW6lrZWGQ7ZzZyaV-1N4pFLVHeJcxF6G6GXcDPO9vPi6l7apPWy63gyL3aEg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.07 | (−0.09, −0.04) | −0.06 | (−0.08, −0.04) | −0.06 | (−0.08, −0.04) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu62.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=kvNqldeQ0-12FqPA9zCvTy~kCWdZ5IL4FBEW6YVIKxv~g~g9uL0c67b1P4dBlOYGWa-wDpD1FAPi1FNc8G1JPzRIDZaQBmcwnA6cZgUjNxPKyBu5l5i-UN7qJ8xii28LX9IRt6gKVaJ4aqJFi42DpMhMvXjli4VZ1xIpEeLnCx94a6u31K1QKGRTrWP7fiIcdQOej3OEDoz4mW~X3yLKrgX-9WzPOyRWON94liB~gS6qWKiSIoNS3B-fMkFhXy79EPOYKhB9pJDWbv6V3OvwkSQSieRKco4RY2mJ5PUVSypBQYroMBgQsOFAEIr-QbB-~Za8KAUBSP0SCB-rDgeutw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.15 | (−0.83, 0.54) | −0.25 | (−0.99, 0.46) | −0.20 | (−0.94, 0.56) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu63.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=Y-eCKSXigwsTXx5resJJhV7ijdH7Cb5nxftH-K87d8pA0ZuEWsVVLiho~yFlbxlkVZk1tzRq0CKM6mCAw6XS6w0jX75ppJVAssktpeX3667taPwZCyzr~6Q7z2gl07MyrwtLDwtglRYh4xyU8KSy4JWvvDT9DmJbVqJrqLh-XFHClYNIQcqegUAAj7I~odKM-LjaSDgEjnr-xx8vOsHNZTP6PmfB~oDiQ1lWJxL1h04y1onboFDbxE2lI1HkaE4dI~vM7ChxooStr7IPor9uBqmorJY8g~2wnjScFkb9Xnf7XFZu2jBIeaB61fr~t215v2HWTTjxKamxaKwUddBnZg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.06 | (−0.15, 0.04) | −0.07 | (−0.16, 0.02) | −0.06 | (−0.15, 0.03) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu64.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=RuU0BcUKVmm1Bv9aGls5W8CEym4necIFgZ4gCLPXcWGyQrdVagm6iNVQkCoWZZeE1uv-2s~Ku1ZBTFmK8VH3Y~SENSUVqGR-a0Pa81yZ3QVP1BJIxXdHIqx3skHL13GKpjiLoDBtLlS7p43~~iKY3eMnxbyal8DSn0dH7qYeSPIFhoalOp04VM~SfkclmnJwnAHvgE7nlDfkWq8XhrTrmoy4bkOarQDC8mdamf0sIjXkTrJE6Yn6SadIfom-0r3vH1u7ouDvVDervM4AYUdJ-zvyru4M1V3K5ssl8D6ZwM8Cyd76HY950I7sZ-ESlK6GvSm0rYD-eu9Pw7ai~A88tg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.03,0.03) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.03) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.03) |
QR模型. | . | τ = 0.25. | τ = 0.5. | τ = 0.75. |
---|
美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. | 预计。. | 95%置信区间. | 美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. |
---|
随机效应 | β0 | 21.40 | (20.40, 22.41) | 23.62 | (22.56, 24.68) | 25.97 | (24.86, 27.08) |
| β1 | 0.14 | (−1.84, 2.11) | 0.19 | (−1.94, 2.31) | 0.24 | (−2.01, 2.47) |
| β2 | −3.19 | (−3.54, −2.86) | −3.54 | (−3.89, −3.20) | −3.82 | (−4.19, −3.46) |
| β三 | 0.78 | (0.11, 1.45) | 0.82 | (0.13, 1.51) | 0.83 | (0.127, 1.55) |
| λ0 | 104.49 | (90.94, 120.45) | 117.98 | (102.61, 135.76) | 129.61 | (112.56, 149.17) |
| λ1 | 9.49 | (7.83, 11.38) | 10.67 | (8.86, 12.75) | 11.09 | (9.14, 13.36) |
共享参数 | β0 | 21.09 | (20.07, 22.08) | 23.33 | (22.24, 24.39) | 25.58 | (24.45,26.70) |
| β1 | 0.17 | (−1.86, 2.14) | 0.21 | (−1.92, 2.28) | 0.27 | (−1.98, 2.47) |
| β2 | −3.40 | (−3.76, −3.06) | −3.75 | (−4.11, −3.40) | −4.09 | (−4.47, −3.72) |
| β三 | 0.77 | (0.06, 1.44) | 0.81 | (0.08, 1.52) | 0.84 | (0.11, 1.57) |
| λ0 | 105.87 | (92.09121.59) | 119.77 | (104.40, 137.65) | 132.02 | (114.93, 151.51) |
| λ1 | 9.55 | (7.92, 11.41) | 10.95 | (9.10, 13.12) | 11.69 | (9.68, 14.04) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu53.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=xJj3NOel2k5TgzTr5nR~~mGQjEJ3pgfDWI-kVONe3w2KMs5wAdgmsqQksVLbd7lBweiIHhMESp1jCbDHxNmNDelAD-8ncRIPkusOALK~n4x4eyM-~6CO75gnGscEQ98cMEdE2rU7yVvsIFYDmVvhRiSEInnbCSiv~AuhOFoUWOy2m0tCu8raRKP-yQcwMDVt3hd63qCjGbTFin2aTkauDjGOHAnvncXPIkA22YrCs6XaZkjXCablkbuqVtRSk2j6lEEIrv8j7BCXV9pDGbFoAuo2xNzvfW55htE60AQio-3Fy4AVBRZ~OOCW~pxxRu4hpcELkERtntd8GxJlsNi6Vg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −3.06 | (−3.57, −2.59) | −3.00 | (−3.49,−2.52) | −3.05 | (−3.54, −2.59) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu54.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=pNQlm7ue0CGSY5FeR-4K8GjH4VquCWoWk2fZQsHSLNjsHYInNjgr6VTt1w8aVwxOIH5JyLz4SMkMNVVUj5o5efpyl1hmkvfxcXc5ZAU5IVSJ071MBOW5HiDnQJiKvyw2WzLbnSSGCejOqDwwE5cALQB4zn4R6sOmBWCKu6k04RkY-UvReyvKT7inGh6J7WPtOFB2785MtvN2mIGKne5Kc1nI8R5LcfdwswIxaZGfNB7ZwFBGXqOlCpAJb~AiOlOwOfCdJnX3aws382dq91vq8cOmSoGsj-ngdfWozfopGkg~Uh2S5vwcquECt1eH~445AsZnNR2qHUVP8DkkCLvaAw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.03 | (−0.08, 0.02) | −0.01 | (−0.06, 0.04) | −0.03 | (−0.07, 0.02) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu55.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=4l-gfnhe-LWlmEGjo2VUSkuMcp2w9rDkjF9~QzMiPVJvDn9YjUYjB-WfYAyG8mgPzkjoTFrEvmTIucuFcfF0m4Zl9~d-LKq70nkTVR5PF2fJzMM5FBSHQSsJhn7q10WYxLeX3k9g~yWNC9XvmqDSdykx9P8d-WPiJAaour52iy01Z95IJnqwyiWYWzL43LRwkxsIXkdv1D4pjI6idJmzSA9vHLD4gP9-zsSeC7PnOlUO45UlhRwJ8cFwud2idvP6nfsC1MAZSagSIkMkHUW9-iIYlR6RL0zbzW6-gohejD7jKvaGksG7HliCeJwOieC6gO-2RIsXOuV9i3eB717AFA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0.02 | (0.00, 0.03) | 0.01 | (0.00,0.03) | 0.01 | (0.00, 0.03) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu56.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=v0biPIDPw0Cyt~dM9nhtoEH6SzZTSiuvrQIB5a3GvO1LZswUYnFoumDxyCWKfd4yf7d3jY-KrVC-x6KgndfuW7hIFAHw0bH8D2L9rkI4TI4SWrVbtT7f-rwJCVTjhV81OZSUUmpOecMMeB52688JKOqWTlknxBG39wggEDsbt5mrLjNmrYHYaoNZJnYwyHAR1AKC1qL3AsV7xZ1BC3xKxXmOB2vv-IVC4okPp6dKcMsmn1Z4tOyJ8zabWishsYiXP6bx4MN5cvob6gJaLGekWdSkf7Qcm8~jF40Gpj1FFlDsPCKpbnv1vEqu8UkssJhACnZTPXZx3EsjQhw-9CVPng__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0.12 | (−0.51, 0.79) | 0.06 | (−0.57, 0.70) | 0.12 | (−0.52, 0.77) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu57.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=vvmYp0P5zqKDui2wdEzAZj7542uk3w6o54wOao51miIzsfwp~Ii4O4vG1W6Xu4cUOXte2FtPZ5LObSG3o~vjWHiNSC6fLsyf25DSOqd~AEp2kmTiHcYZkO87I7GOfKlTc3Me2HqTs7ixzWq10V85EgLnekbI0rz52ExiQLfsdmuLSQHHFRyro7-ZAoAVrtLXjW3s4yO1iRMYeboxYQnFewfRRqSFrOMbHT1D6MiXl31cZkg~XpoaDeriGmencCs8Ah2FoGP-YVty1TUZAwDRLr95L7j7NiixHJQghmsQY3N6VF3GNQdrLmHfjmpe1QZHRV~aIv~3ouI-VcCQBiZYTg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.03 | (−0.11, 0.05) | −0.02 | (−0.10, 0.05) | 0.01 | (−0.07, 0.08) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu58.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=nx9Qx9UYIQdRxFiDJB9iQ9ydVzjeJcLv38QlmiDVTkeSugpkhE-PZqE~g3Y0TMjT5VX-AEqYe2ie2ODYfGQSgDsSJVSkE9fX4c4VGTAktePZIiLVOrHrCLD9xXNzNEXbtZbNadStM8Mvx1ShIqb6~9xuEa9yestx1uNI6uDVeyLm1lyWOGvPr2CDSOgUV-tjllbWoYnYcnXx-KB8CBEsA0v~M7iErOSeDG1wJSNSyFgZMW3lFi4gkHhahXkpaE~xlfR-LdgR9-bJPwoO2s0Nu9k~-YhZTFhR8d-Qn7eLbfIP2gVW-HQHUbMEftmrBaMQfKBN6nuXSGcu1Q5ScB0rIw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.02) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.02) | 0 | (−0.02、0.03) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu59.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=AtTnpjsA8bEu-a~GmtbReZJ3JXF6GTf9ERmEjWhAsXCtaraMddYvMNu2rTrM7Y7O-84RakfyhySGosb1uNG1ltLsqlMDEAaz2Pzlh03tJOEjryEeuD3NQ8zS9AonkGaFIhdtgavX4CSISDel5B~XhpF4v5qi4HyIc8xaAQgKheXyM~62yg-HX07hVnUTfQDDS56YRv1vBDBcrYmJa1n~6JOkrX7PpRwkOtKfh96MwV~MEkPMnMyYfPxAY82Mftj5fGXecJIgHnx6x1MnYtS4rhloNojgBtWSQCNAq3jdbC19uxO5dhE5GD4pq18qtiZ-NeRg6XE~EoFNN3Bncl3Xcg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −2.05 | (−2.53, −1.59) | −2.05 | (−2.53, −1.58) | −2.07 | (−2.59, −1.56) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu60.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=OiNEG0vjY0vgP1u8G10mL43A-hFAExOOQEf4TWNfLJ6kSfeLqjRS3kErLTJtvkcOpIbzDQOrgmarfpDjXPtk-XDI-4y-cprnsmig49P7LgUsDfCqSBF8DMh3g3~OsSJklgfyjH8xfE6EnjvVSVRXadwj16mRpC1TMTthKNjPCEvGnmS5rVhnU8Ix7bd4dYa61yd8xP2qP7ajuAvVVP2tx-bdObfnAw8fvD3BjIkvxie5wD9CXDcNGvO~4gi-D0UIed0a-M-pcTDo6tLGs2phLgMOS0vVvevnAOBBDONqAUvrdW6QRouGuSGrGWfV5zvLJdcjBrSwbu-AbF3AUsafXw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.09 | (−0.14, −0.03) | −0.09 | (−0.14, −0.04) | −0.11 | (-0.16, −0.05) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu61.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=gB-GbFgqFpIhG7ngvRaOaX8WvG0gRIbDvp4FR2mDmyDbyazZAb683m3ryAmlOInio48HOLe6NSMPKyS0RDY2f-F1m4yNmWcnsJKrwAht82tndVQyWEpEMAKaKMBt34I~thDNdQXUzV7-XkHgAqqG3N1YOPmfrUVbw0IsLceES0XQ4z07iMpT8D4~y6EbkKRqOfk7vwxrs-fo-mBdNERe42uJH5R06POpr2FoXUMwpe43dFELzd63dIKk-7Xz-gpCC9Om7kB2Qfbx4zNfbbMYC-M-ETOW6lrZWGQ7ZzZyaV-1N4pFLVHeJcxF6G6GXcDPO9vPi6l7apPWy63gyL3aEg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.07 | (−0.09, −0.04) | −0.06 | (−0.08, −0.04) | −0.06 | (−0.08, −0.04) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu62.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=kvNqldeQ0-12FqPA9zCvTy~kCWdZ5IL4FBEW6YVIKxv~g~g9uL0c67b1P4dBlOYGWa-wDpD1FAPi1FNc8G1JPzRIDZaQBmcwnA6cZgUjNxPKyBu5l5i-UN7qJ8xii28LX9IRt6gKVaJ4aqJFi42DpMhMvXjli4VZ1xIpEeLnCx94a6u31K1QKGRTrWP7fiIcdQOej3OEDoz4mW~X3yLKrgX-9WzPOyRWON94liB~gS6qWKiSIoNS3B-fMkFhXy79EPOYKhB9pJDWbv6V3OvwkSQSieRKco4RY2mJ5PUVSypBQYroMBgQsOFAEIr-QbB-~Za8KAUBSP0SCB-rDgeutw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.15 | (−0.83, 0.54) | −0.25 | (−0.99, 0.46) | −0.20 | (−0.94, 0.56) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu63.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=Y-eCKSXigwsTXx5resJJhV7ijdH7Cb5nxftH-K87d8pA0ZuEWsVVLiho~yFlbxlkVZk1tzRq0CKM6mCAw6XS6w0jX75ppJVAssktpeX3667taPwZCyzr~6Q7z2gl07MyrwtLDwtglRYh4xyU8KSy4JWvvDT9DmJbVqJrqLh-XFHClYNIQcqegUAAj7I~odKM-LjaSDgEjnr-xx8vOsHNZTP6PmfB~oDiQ1lWJxL1h04y1onboFDbxE2lI1HkaE4dI~vM7ChxooStr7IPor9uBqmorJY8g~2wnjScFkb9Xnf7XFZu2jBIeaB61fr~t215v2HWTTjxKamxaKwUddBnZg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.06 | (−0.15, 0.04) | −0.07 | (−0.16, 0.02) | −0.06 | (−0.15, 0.03) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu64.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=RuU0BcUKVmm1Bv9aGls5W8CEym4necIFgZ4gCLPXcWGyQrdVagm6iNVQkCoWZZeE1uv-2s~Ku1ZBTFmK8VH3Y~SENSUVqGR-a0Pa81yZ3QVP1BJIxXdHIqx3skHL13GKpjiLoDBtLlS7p43~~iKY3eMnxbyal8DSn0dH7qYeSPIFhoalOp04VM~SfkclmnJwnAHvgE7nlDfkWq8XhrTrmoy4bkOarQDC8mdamf0sIjXkTrJE6Yn6SadIfom-0r3vH1u7ouDvVDervM4AYUdJ-zvyru4M1V3K5ssl8D6ZwM8Cyd76HY950I7sZ-ESlK6GvSm0rYD-eu9Pw7ai~A88tg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.03) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.03) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.03) |
QR模型. | . | τ = 0.25. | τ = 0.5. | τ = 0.75. |
---|
美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. | 美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. | 美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. |
---|
随机效应 | β0 | 21.40 | (20.40, 22.41) | 23.62 | (22.56, 24.68) | 25.97 | (24.86, 27.08) |
| β1 | 0.14 | (−1.84,2.11) | 0.19 | (−1.94, 2.31) | 0.24 | (−2.01, 2.47) |
| β2 | −3.19 | (−3.54, −2.86) | −3.54 | (−3.89, −3.20) | −3.82 | (−4.19, −3.46) |
| β三 | 0.78 | (0.11, 1.45) | 0.82 | (0.13,1.51) | 0.83 | (0.127, 1.55) |
| λ0 | 104.49 | (90.94, 120.45) | 117.98 | (102.61, 135.76) | 129.61 | (112.56, 149.17) |
| λ1 | 9.49 | (7.83, 11.38) | 10.67 | (8.86, 12.75) | 11.09 | (9.14, 13.36) |
共享参数 | β0 | 21.09 | (20.07, 22.08) | 23.33 | (22.24, 24.39) | 25.58 | (24.45, 26.70) |
| β1 | 0.17 | (−1.86, 2.14) | 0.21 | (−1.92, 2.28) | 0.27 | (−1.98, 2.47) |
| β2 | −3.40 | (−3.76, −3.06) | −3.75 | (−4.11, −3.40) | −4.09 | (−4.47, −3.72) |
| β三 | 0.77 | (0.06, 1.44) | 0.81 | (0.08, 1.52) | 0.84 | (0.11, 1.57) |
| λ0 | 105.87 | (92.09, 121.59) | 119.77 | (104.40, 137.65) | 132.02 | (114.93, 151.51) |
| λ1 | 9.55 | (7.92, 11.41) | 10.95 | (9.10, 13.12) | 11.69 | (9.68, 14.04) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu53.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=xJj3NOel2k5TgzTr5nR~~mGQjEJ3pgfDWI-kVONe3w2KMs5wAdgmsqQksVLbd7lBweiIHhMESp1jCbDHxNmNDelAD-8ncRIPkusOALK~n4x4eyM-~6CO75gnGscEQ98cMEdE2rU7yVvsIFYDmVvhRiSEInnbCSiv~AuhOFoUWOy2m0tCu8raRKP-yQcwMDVt3hd63qCjGbTFin2aTkauDjGOHAnvncXPIkA22YrCs6XaZkjXCablkbuqVtRSk2j6lEEIrv8j7BCXV9pDGbFoAuo2xNzvfW55htE60AQio-3Fy4AVBRZ~OOCW~pxxRu4hpcELkERtntd8GxJlsNi6Vg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −3.06 | (−3.57, −2.59) | −3.00 | (−3.49, −2.52) | −3.05 | (−3.54, −2.59) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu54.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=pNQlm7ue0CGSY5FeR-4K8GjH4VquCWoWk2fZQsHSLNjsHYInNjgr6VTt1w8aVwxOIH5JyLz4SMkMNVVUj5o5efpyl1hmkvfxcXc5ZAU5IVSJ071MBOW5HiDnQJiKvyw2WzLbnSSGCejOqDwwE5cALQB4zn4R6sOmBWCKu6k04RkY-UvReyvKT7inGh6J7WPtOFB2785MtvN2mIGKne5Kc1nI8R5LcfdwswIxaZGfNB7ZwFBGXqOlCpAJb~AiOlOwOfCdJnX3aws382dq91vq8cOmSoGsj-ngdfWozfopGkg~Uh2S5vwcquECt1eH~445AsZnNR2qHUVP8DkkCLvaAw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.03 | (−0.08, 0.02) | −0.01 | (−0.06, 0.04) | −0.03 | (−0.07, 0.02) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu55.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=4l-gfnhe-LWlmEGjo2VUSkuMcp2w9rDkjF9~QzMiPVJvDn9YjUYjB-WfYAyG8mgPzkjoTFrEvmTIucuFcfF0m4Zl9~d-LKq70nkTVR5PF2fJzMM5FBSHQSsJhn7q10WYxLeX3k9g~yWNC9XvmqDSdykx9P8d-WPiJAaour52iy01Z95IJnqwyiWYWzL43LRwkxsIXkdv1D4pjI6idJmzSA9vHLD4gP9-zsSeC7PnOlUO45UlhRwJ8cFwud2idvP6nfsC1MAZSagSIkMkHUW9-iIYlR6RL0zbzW6-gohejD7jKvaGksG7HliCeJwOieC6gO-2RIsXOuV9i3eB717AFA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0.02 | (0.00, 0.03) | 0.01 | (0.00, 0.03) | 0.01 | (0.00, 0.03) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu56.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=v0biPIDPw0Cyt~dM9nhtoEH6SzZTSiuvrQIB5a3GvO1LZswUYnFoumDxyCWKfd4yf7d3jY-KrVC-x6KgndfuW7hIFAHw0bH8D2L9rkI4TI4SWrVbtT7f-rwJCVTjhV81OZSUUmpOecMMeB52688JKOqWTlknxBG39wggEDsbt5mrLjNmrYHYaoNZJnYwyHAR1AKC1qL3AsV7xZ1BC3xKxXmOB2vv-IVC4okPp6dKcMsmn1Z4tOyJ8zabWishsYiXP6bx4MN5cvob6gJaLGekWdSkf7Qcm8~jF40Gpj1FFlDsPCKpbnv1vEqu8UkssJhACnZTPXZx3EsjQhw-9CVPng__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0.12 | (−0.51, 0.79) | 0.06 | (−0.57, 0.70) | 0.12 | (−0.52, 0.77) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu57.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=vvmYp0P5zqKDui2wdEzAZj7542uk3w6o54wOao51miIzsfwp~Ii4O4vG1W6Xu4cUOXte2FtPZ5LObSG3o~vjWHiNSC6fLsyf25DSOqd~AEp2kmTiHcYZkO87I7GOfKlTc3Me2HqTs7ixzWq10V85EgLnekbI0rz52ExiQLfsdmuLSQHHFRyro7-ZAoAVrtLXjW3s4yO1iRMYeboxYQnFewfRRqSFrOMbHT1D6MiXl31cZkg~XpoaDeriGmencCs8Ah2FoGP-YVty1TUZAwDRLr95L7j7NiixHJQghmsQY3N6VF3GNQdrLmHfjmpe1QZHRV~aIv~3ouI-VcCQBiZYTg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.03 | (−0.11, 0.05) | −0.02 | (-0.10,0.05) | 0.01 | (−0.07, 0.08) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu58.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=nx9Qx9UYIQdRxFiDJB9iQ9ydVzjeJcLv38QlmiDVTkeSugpkhE-PZqE~g3Y0TMjT5VX-AEqYe2ie2ODYfGQSgDsSJVSkE9fX4c4VGTAktePZIiLVOrHrCLD9xXNzNEXbtZbNadStM8Mvx1ShIqb6~9xuEa9yestx1uNI6uDVeyLm1lyWOGvPr2CDSOgUV-tjllbWoYnYcnXx-KB8CBEsA0v~M7iErOSeDG1wJSNSyFgZMW3lFi4gkHhahXkpaE~xlfR-LdgR9-bJPwoO2s0Nu9k~-YhZTFhR8d-Qn7eLbfIP2gVW-HQHUbMEftmrBaMQfKBN6nuXSGcu1Q5ScB0rIw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.02) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.02) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.03) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu59.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=AtTnpjsA8bEu-a~GmtbReZJ3JXF6GTf9ERmEjWhAsXCtaraMddYvMNu2rTrM7Y7O-84RakfyhySGosb1uNG1ltLsqlMDEAaz2Pzlh03tJOEjryEeuD3NQ8zS9AonkGaFIhdtgavX4CSISDel5B~XhpF4v5qi4HyIc8xaAQgKheXyM~62yg-HX07hVnUTfQDDS56YRv1vBDBcrYmJa1n~6JOkrX7PpRwkOtKfh96MwV~MEkPMnMyYfPxAY82Mftj5fGXecJIgHnx6x1MnYtS4rhloNojgBtWSQCNAq3jdbC19uxO5dhE5GD4pq18qtiZ-NeRg6XE~EoFNN3Bncl3Xcg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −2.05 | (−2.53, −1.59) | −2.05 | (−2.53, −1.58) | −2.07 | (−2.59, −1.56) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu60.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=OiNEG0vjY0vgP1u8G10mL43A-hFAExOOQEf4TWNfLJ6kSfeLqjRS3kErLTJtvkcOpIbzDQOrgmarfpDjXPtk-XDI-4y-cprnsmig49P7LgUsDfCqSBF8DMh3g3~OsSJklgfyjH8xfE6EnjvVSVRXadwj16mRpC1TMTthKNjPCEvGnmS5rVhnU8Ix7bd4dYa61yd8xP2qP7ajuAvVVP2tx-bdObfnAw8fvD3BjIkvxie5wD9CXDcNGvO~4gi-D0UIed0a-M-pcTDo6tLGs2phLgMOS0vVvevnAOBBDONqAUvrdW6QRouGuSGrGWfV5zvLJdcjBrSwbu-AbF3AUsafXw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.09 | (−0.14, −0.03) | −0.09 | (−0.14, −0.04) | −0.11 | (-0.16, −0.05) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu61.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=gB-GbFgqFpIhG7ngvRaOaX8WvG0gRIbDvp4FR2mDmyDbyazZAb683m3ryAmlOInio48HOLe6NSMPKyS0RDY2f-F1m4yNmWcnsJKrwAht82tndVQyWEpEMAKaKMBt34I~thDNdQXUzV7-XkHgAqqG3N1YOPmfrUVbw0IsLceES0XQ4z07iMpT8D4~y6EbkKRqOfk7vwxrs-fo-mBdNERe42uJH5R06POpr2FoXUMwpe43dFELzd63dIKk-7Xz-gpCC9Om7kB2Qfbx4zNfbbMYC-M-ETOW6lrZWGQ7ZzZyaV-1N4pFLVHeJcxF6G6GXcDPO9vPi6l7apPWy63gyL3aEg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.07 | (−0.09, −0.04) | −0.06 | (−0.08, −0.04) | −0.06 | (−0.08,−0.04) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu62.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=kvNqldeQ0-12FqPA9zCvTy~kCWdZ5IL4FBEW6YVIKxv~g~g9uL0c67b1P4dBlOYGWa-wDpD1FAPi1FNc8G1JPzRIDZaQBmcwnA6cZgUjNxPKyBu5l5i-UN7qJ8xii28LX9IRt6gKVaJ4aqJFi42DpMhMvXjli4VZ1xIpEeLnCx94a6u31K1QKGRTrWP7fiIcdQOej3OEDoz4mW~X3yLKrgX-9WzPOyRWON94liB~gS6qWKiSIoNS3B-fMkFhXy79EPOYKhB9pJDWbv6V3OvwkSQSieRKco4RY2mJ5PUVSypBQYroMBgQsOFAEIr-QbB-~Za8KAUBSP0SCB-rDgeutw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.15 | (−0.83, 0.54) | −0.25 | (−0.99, 0.46) | −0.20 | (−0.94, 0.56) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu63.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=Y-eCKSXigwsTXx5resJJhV7ijdH7Cb5nxftH-K87d8pA0ZuEWsVVLiho~yFlbxlkVZk1tzRq0CKM6mCAw6XS6w0jX75ppJVAssktpeX3667taPwZCyzr~6Q7z2gl07MyrwtLDwtglRYh4xyU8KSy4JWvvDT9DmJbVqJrqLh-XFHClYNIQcqegUAAj7I~odKM-LjaSDgEjnr-xx8vOsHNZTP6PmfB~oDiQ1lWJxL1h04y1onboFDbxE2lI1HkaE4dI~vM7ChxooStr7IPor9uBqmorJY8g~2wnjScFkb9Xnf7XFZu2jBIeaB61fr~t215v2HWTTjxKamxaKwUddBnZg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.06 | (−0.15, 0.04) | −0.07 | (−0.16, 0.02) | −0.06 | (−0.15, 0.03) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu64.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=RuU0BcUKVmm1Bv9aGls5W8CEym4necIFgZ4gCLPXcWGyQrdVagm6iNVQkCoWZZeE1uv-2s~Ku1ZBTFmK8VH3Y~SENSUVqGR-a0Pa81yZ3QVP1BJIxXdHIqx3skHL13GKpjiLoDBtLlS7p43~~iKY3eMnxbyal8DSn0dH7qYeSPIFhoalOp04VM~SfkclmnJwnAHvgE7nlDfkWq8XhrTrmoy4bkOarQDC8mdamf0sIjXkTrJE6Yn6SadIfom-0r3vH1u7ouDvVDervM4AYUdJ-zvyru4M1V3K5ssl8D6ZwM8Cyd76HY950I7sZ-ESlK6GvSm0rYD-eu9Pw7ai~A88tg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.03) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.03) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.03) |
QR模型. | . | τ = 0.25. | τ = 0.5. | τ = 0.75. |
---|
预计。. | 95%置信区间. | 美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. | 美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. |
---|
随机效应 | β0 | 21.40 | (20.40, 22.41) | 23.62 | (22.56, 24.68) | 25.97 | (24.86, 27.08) |
| β1 | 0.14 | (−1.84, 2.11) | 0.19 | (−1.94, 2.31) | 0.24 | (−2.01, 2.47) |
| β2 | −3.19 | (−3.54, −2.86) | −3.54 | (−3.89,−3.20) | −3.82 | (−4.19, −3.46) |
| β三 | 0.78 | (0.11, 1.45) | 0.82 | (0.13, 1.51) | 0.83 | (0.127, 1.55) |
| λ0 | 104.49 | (90.94, 120.45) | 117.98 | (102.61, 135.76) | 129.61 | (112.56, 149.17) |
| λ1 | 9.49 | (7.83,11.38) | 10.67 | (8.86, 12.75) | 11.09 | (9.14, 13.36) |
共享参数 | β0 | 21.09 | (20.07, 22.08) | 23.33 | (22.24, 24.39) | 25.58 | (24.45, 26.70) |
| β1 | 0.17 | (−1.86, 2.14) | 0.21 | (−1.92, 2.28) | 0.27 | (−1.98, 2.47) |
| β2 | −3.40 | (−3.76, −3.06) | −3.75 | (−4.11, −3.40) | −4.09 | (−4.47, −3.72) |
| β三 | 0.77 | (0.06, 1.44) | 0.81 | (0.08, 1.52) | 0.84 | (0.11, 1.57) |
| λ0 | 105.87 | (92.09, 121.59) | 119.77 | (104.40, 137.65) | 132.02 | (114.93, 151.51) |
| λ1 | 9.55 | (7.92, 11.41) | 10.95 | (9.10, 13.12) | 11.69 | (9.68, 14.04) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu53.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=xJj3NOel2k5TgzTr5nR~~mGQjEJ3pgfDWI-kVONe3w2KMs5wAdgmsqQksVLbd7lBweiIHhMESp1jCbDHxNmNDelAD-8ncRIPkusOALK~n4x4eyM-~6CO75gnGscEQ98cMEdE2rU7yVvsIFYDmVvhRiSEInnbCSiv~AuhOFoUWOy2m0tCu8raRKP-yQcwMDVt3hd63qCjGbTFin2aTkauDjGOHAnvncXPIkA22YrCs6XaZkjXCablkbuqVtRSk2j6lEEIrv8j7BCXV9pDGbFoAuo2xNzvfW55htE60AQio-3Fy4AVBRZ~OOCW~pxxRu4hpcELkERtntd8GxJlsNi6Vg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −3.06 | (−3.57, −2.59) | −3.00 | (−3.49, −2.52) | −3.05 | (−3.54, −2.59) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu54.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=pNQlm7ue0CGSY5FeR-4K8GjH4VquCWoWk2fZQsHSLNjsHYInNjgr6VTt1w8aVwxOIH5JyLz4SMkMNVVUj5o5efpyl1hmkvfxcXc5ZAU5IVSJ071MBOW5HiDnQJiKvyw2WzLbnSSGCejOqDwwE5cALQB4zn4R6sOmBWCKu6k04RkY-UvReyvKT7inGh6J7WPtOFB2785MtvN2mIGKne5Kc1nI8R5LcfdwswIxaZGfNB7ZwFBGXqOlCpAJb~AiOlOwOfCdJnX3aws382dq91vq8cOmSoGsj-ngdfWozfopGkg~Uh2S5vwcquECt1eH~445AsZnNR2qHUVP8DkkCLvaAw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.03 | (−0.08, 0.02) | −0.01 | (−0.06, 0.04) | −0.03 | (−0.07, 0.02) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu55.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=4l-gfnhe-LWlmEGjo2VUSkuMcp2w9rDkjF9~QzMiPVJvDn9YjUYjB-WfYAyG8mgPzkjoTFrEvmTIucuFcfF0m4Zl9~d-LKq70nkTVR5PF2fJzMM5FBSHQSsJhn7q10WYxLeX3k9g~yWNC9XvmqDSdykx9P8d-WPiJAaour52iy01Z95IJnqwyiWYWzL43LRwkxsIXkdv1D4pjI6idJmzSA9vHLD4gP9-zsSeC7PnOlUO45UlhRwJ8cFwud2idvP6nfsC1MAZSagSIkMkHUW9-iIYlR6RL0zbzW6-gohejD7jKvaGksG7HliCeJwOieC6gO-2RIsXOuV9i3eB717AFA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0.02 | (0.00,0.03) | 0.01 | (0.00, 0.03) | 0.01 | (0.00, 0.03) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu56.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=v0biPIDPw0Cyt~dM9nhtoEH6SzZTSiuvrQIB5a3GvO1LZswUYnFoumDxyCWKfd4yf7d3jY-KrVC-x6KgndfuW7hIFAHw0bH8D2L9rkI4TI4SWrVbtT7f-rwJCVTjhV81OZSUUmpOecMMeB52688JKOqWTlknxBG39wggEDsbt5mrLjNmrYHYaoNZJnYwyHAR1AKC1qL3AsV7xZ1BC3xKxXmOB2vv-IVC4okPp6dKcMsmn1Z4tOyJ8zabWishsYiXP6bx4MN5cvob6gJaLGekWdSkf7Qcm8~jF40Gpj1FFlDsPCKpbnv1vEqu8UkssJhACnZTPXZx3EsjQhw-9CVPng__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0.12 | (−0.51, 0.79) | 0.06 | (−0.57, 0.70) | 0.12 | (−0.52, 0.77) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu57.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=vvmYp0P5zqKDui2wdEzAZj7542uk3w6o54wOao51miIzsfwp~Ii4O4vG1W6Xu4cUOXte2FtPZ5LObSG3o~vjWHiNSC6fLsyf25DSOqd~AEp2kmTiHcYZkO87I7GOfKlTc3Me2HqTs7ixzWq10V85EgLnekbI0rz52ExiQLfsdmuLSQHHFRyro7-ZAoAVrtLXjW3s4yO1iRMYeboxYQnFewfRRqSFrOMbHT1D6MiXl31cZkg~XpoaDeriGmencCs8Ah2FoGP-YVty1TUZAwDRLr95L7j7NiixHJQghmsQY3N6VF3GNQdrLmHfjmpe1QZHRV~aIv~3ouI-VcCQBiZYTg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.03 | (−0.11, 0.05) | −0.02 | (−0.10, 0.05) | 0.01 | (−0.07, 0.08) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu58.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=nx9Qx9UYIQdRxFiDJB9iQ9ydVzjeJcLv38QlmiDVTkeSugpkhE-PZqE~g3Y0TMjT5VX-AEqYe2ie2ODYfGQSgDsSJVSkE9fX4c4VGTAktePZIiLVOrHrCLD9xXNzNEXbtZbNadStM8Mvx1ShIqb6~9xuEa9yestx1uNI6uDVeyLm1lyWOGvPr2CDSOgUV-tjllbWoYnYcnXx-KB8CBEsA0v~M7iErOSeDG1wJSNSyFgZMW3lFi4gkHhahXkpaE~xlfR-LdgR9-bJPwoO2s0Nu9k~-YhZTFhR8d-Qn7eLbfIP2gVW-HQHUbMEftmrBaMQfKBN6nuXSGcu1Q5ScB0rIw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.02) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.02) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.03) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu59.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=AtTnpjsA8bEu-a~GmtbReZJ3JXF6GTf9ERmEjWhAsXCtaraMddYvMNu2rTrM7Y7O-84RakfyhySGosb1uNG1ltLsqlMDEAaz2Pzlh03tJOEjryEeuD3NQ8zS9AonkGaFIhdtgavX4CSISDel5B~XhpF4v5qi4HyIc8xaAQgKheXyM~62yg-HX07hVnUTfQDDS56YRv1vBDBcrYmJa1n~6JOkrX7PpRwkOtKfh96MwV~MEkPMnMyYfPxAY82Mftj5fGXecJIgHnx6x1MnYtS4rhloNojgBtWSQCNAq3jdbC19uxO5dhE5GD4pq18qtiZ-NeRg6XE~EoFNN3Bncl3Xcg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −2.05 | (−2.53, −1.59) | −2.05 | (−2.53, −1.58) | −2.07 | (−2.59, −1.56) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu60.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=OiNEG0vjY0vgP1u8G10mL43A-hFAExOOQEf4TWNfLJ6kSfeLqjRS3kErLTJtvkcOpIbzDQOrgmarfpDjXPtk-XDI-4y-cprnsmig49P7LgUsDfCqSBF8DMh3g3~OsSJklgfyjH8xfE6EnjvVSVRXadwj16mRpC1TMTthKNjPCEvGnmS5rVhnU8Ix7bd4dYa61yd8xP2qP7ajuAvVVP2tx-bdObfnAw8fvD3BjIkvxie5wD9CXDcNGvO~4gi-D0UIed0a-M-pcTDo6tLGs2phLgMOS0vVvevnAOBBDONqAUvrdW6QRouGuSGrGWfV5zvLJdcjBrSwbu-AbF3AUsafXw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.09 | (−0.14, −0.03) | −0.09 | (−0.14, −0.04) | −0.11 | (-0.16,−0.05) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu61.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=gB-GbFgqFpIhG7ngvRaOaX8WvG0gRIbDvp4FR2mDmyDbyazZAb683m3ryAmlOInio48HOLe6NSMPKyS0RDY2f-F1m4yNmWcnsJKrwAht82tndVQyWEpEMAKaKMBt34I~thDNdQXUzV7-XkHgAqqG3N1YOPmfrUVbw0IsLceES0XQ4z07iMpT8D4~y6EbkKRqOfk7vwxrs-fo-mBdNERe42uJH5R06POpr2FoXUMwpe43dFELzd63dIKk-7Xz-gpCC9Om7kB2Qfbx4zNfbbMYC-M-ETOW6lrZWGQ7ZzZyaV-1N4pFLVHeJcxF6G6GXcDPO9vPi6l7apPWy63gyL3aEg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.07 | (−0.09, −0.04) | −0.06 | (−0.08, −0.04) | −0.06 | (−0.08, −0.04) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu62.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=kvNqldeQ0-12FqPA9zCvTy~kCWdZ5IL4FBEW6YVIKxv~g~g9uL0c67b1P4dBlOYGWa-wDpD1FAPi1FNc8G1JPzRIDZaQBmcwnA6cZgUjNxPKyBu5l5i-UN7qJ8xii28LX9IRt6gKVaJ4aqJFi42DpMhMvXjli4VZ1xIpEeLnCx94a6u31K1QKGRTrWP7fiIcdQOej3OEDoz4mW~X3yLKrgX-9WzPOyRWON94liB~gS6qWKiSIoNS3B-fMkFhXy79EPOYKhB9pJDWbv6V3OvwkSQSieRKco4RY2mJ5PUVSypBQYroMBgQsOFAEIr-QbB-~Za8KAUBSP0SCB-rDgeutw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.15 | (−0.83, 0.54) | −0.25 | (-0.99,0.46) | −0.20 | (−0.94, 0.56) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu63.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=Y-eCKSXigwsTXx5resJJhV7ijdH7Cb5nxftH-K87d8pA0ZuEWsVVLiho~yFlbxlkVZk1tzRq0CKM6mCAw6XS6w0jX75ppJVAssktpeX3667taPwZCyzr~6Q7z2gl07MyrwtLDwtglRYh4xyU8KSy4JWvvDT9DmJbVqJrqLh-XFHClYNIQcqegUAAj7I~odKM-LjaSDgEjnr-xx8vOsHNZTP6PmfB~oDiQ1lWJxL1h04y1onboFDbxE2lI1HkaE4dI~vM7ChxooStr7IPor9uBqmorJY8g~2wnjScFkb9Xnf7XFZu2jBIeaB61fr~t215v2HWTTjxKamxaKwUddBnZg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.06 | (−0.15, 0.04) | −0.07 | (−0.16, 0.02) | −0.06 | (−0.15, 0.03) |
| ![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu64.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=RuU0BcUKVmm1Bv9aGls5W8CEym4necIFgZ4gCLPXcWGyQrdVagm6iNVQkCoWZZeE1uv-2s~Ku1ZBTFmK8VH3Y~SENSUVqGR-a0Pa81yZ3QVP1BJIxXdHIqx3skHL13GKpjiLoDBtLlS7p43~~iKY3eMnxbyal8DSn0dH7qYeSPIFhoalOp04VM~SfkclmnJwnAHvgE7nlDfkWq8XhrTrmoy4bkOarQDC8mdamf0sIjXkTrJE6Yn6SadIfom-0r3vH1u7ouDvVDervM4AYUdJ-zvyru4M1V3K5ssl8D6ZwM8Cyd76HY950I7sZ-ESlK6GvSm0rYD-eu9Pw7ai~A88tg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.03) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.03) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.03) |
β的估计2由于共享参数QR考虑到了早期辍学与较低斜率相关的事实,因此共享参数下的QR小于所有三个分位数的随机效应QR图1). 例如,在中位数
即,在随机效应QR下,高剂量组对应时间的斜率估计值为-3.54,在共享参数QR下为-3.75。随机效应QR没有针对缺失的数据进行调整,因此导致过高估计β2在共享参数QR下,高剂量和低剂量方案对CD4计数较低的病情患者更有效,反映在这些患者的CD4计数下降较慢
τ=0.25和0.75时分别为−4.09。
β的估计三对应于低剂量组和高剂量组之间时间斜率的差异,这两个模型之间是相似的。在三个回归分位数中,低剂量组的时间斜率显著高于高剂量组
这表明低剂量齐多夫定优于高剂量齐多夫定,因为低剂量组CD4细胞计数下降幅度较小。然而,对于较低分位数,低剂量组的优势稍小
= τ=0.25和0.75时分别为0.77和0.84。QR允许我们检查CD4计数不同分位数的治疗效果。相反,平均回归仅对平均或中心效应建模,因此无法检测到这种分位数差异。为了进行比较,我们还实现了一个共享参数均值回归模型,该模型给出了β1, β2、和β三为0.36、−3.77和0.94,标准误差分别为1.23、0.50和0.41。
4.2敏感性分析
在共享参数QR模型中
确定间歇性缺失数据机制。例如,如果
,间歇性缺失数据是可以忽略的,因为缺失数据过程独立于结果过程;否则,间歇性缺失的数据是不可忽略的。同样
治理与辍学相关的缺失机制。在表2的95%CI
、和
所有数据均包含0,表明间歇性缺失数据可能是两个治疗组的MAR。然而,辍学过程似乎不容忽视,因为
和
不包含0。
不幸的是,观测数据通常包含有限的信息,无法可靠地确定缺失的数据机制。在贝叶斯范式中,我们通过为每个γ分配一系列独立的信息正态先验进行了敏感性分析,平均值范围为−10到10,但方差相同,为0.2。图3显示β的估计值2和β三根据这些信息丰富的先验,表明我们的结果对γ值并不特别敏感。
![灵敏度分析,通过将一系列具有不同均值的信息正常先验分配给缺失数据模型中的γ。](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_f3.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=RXivJWf02C4j6hsw1AvTh~W3wYbqSSJ5~aiYt440r56CC4j47x7qykib39C8Vs5r2Ui8CZ8exub6JGuFyfWSbLdtWKelzHZ89zLZU6xA0bFdH6-gxZvIGCWNBMbQbqGd1A6S9NmxPy4e4UFLim9zvBPhVCMB-0Xf3vR~jiHwx2IWWoQ73iQZz5c6BU5fMo8sMhpMvuSMwn~cc-oK7jFvxa9RHfLqldiSjeK~g36PevbexmS5ZMZVSxLYZIXVl-6ljvVTdHKBJgt3lHIASUY0LRX5hLIEyfDC5b1gRSVyCLHaVeMcijsGPgqGrMkO7ygGmKxTsVt2bcBwyRHsueXPxA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA)
图3
通过为缺失数据模型中的γ分配一系列具有不同平均值的信息正常先验值进行敏感性分析。
共享参数模型的一个关键假设是,考虑到随机效应,结果过程和缺失数据过程之间存在条件独立性。为了检验这个假设,Pulkstenis、Ten Have和Landis(1998)提出了一种敏感性分析,当辍学前的观察结果也作为协变量包含在辍学模型中时,评估参数估计值和标准误差的变化。然而,我们的情况更为复杂,因为我们必须同时考虑间歇性缺失数据和辍学。在j个第次测量时间,我们使用上次观察到的CD4细胞计数j个 作为协变量,如果出现间歇性缺失或缺失;否则,观察到的CD4细胞计数j个 用作协变量。我们表示对应于这个新协变量的回归系数及其与x个我 由
和
间歇性缺失,以及
和
因为辍学。
使用这个额外的增广协变量的参数估计总结如下表3为了评估共享参数QR中假设的缺失数据机制的有效性,我们比较了γ的估计值(k个)的
在里面表3与他们的同行表2最显著的差异之一是
当考虑到数据丢失对最后观察到的CD4细胞计数的依赖性时,显著增加,即间歇性缺失数据和随机斜率之间的依赖性增强。这提供了违反条件独立性假设的经验证据。然而,对感兴趣的参数,特别是β的估计,在表3和表2,表明我们的模型对条件独立性假设的鲁棒性。
表3通过增加模型中最后观察到的CD4细胞计数的协变量对儿童艾滋病数据的敏感性分析
. | τ = 0.25. | τ = 0.5. | τ = 0.75. |
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美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. | 美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. | 美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. |
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β0 | 21.05 | (20.04, 22.06) | 23.28 | (22.20, 24.35) | 25.54 | (24.42, 26.67) |
β1 | 0.20 | (−1.81,−2.18) | 0.25 | (−1.89, 2.33) | 0.29 | (−1.94, 2.50) |
β2 | −3.43 | (−3.78, −3.09) | −3.78 | (−4.14, −3.42) | −4.12 | (−4.50, −3.74) |
β三 | 0.79 | (0.09, 1.48) | 0.83 | (0.12, 1.55) | 0.85 | (0.09, 1.60) |
λ0 | 106.4 | (92.6122.0) | 120.2 | (104.6, 137.8) | 132.4 | (115.3, 152.2) |
λ1 | 9.69 | (8.06, 11.53) | 11.10 | (9.25, 13.25) | 11.81 | (9.79, 14.11) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu65.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=IFieqOG-SL8MWSYUokwk0UNnlULLdJPc3SZ0pXoZqwJvLcwg1H90vTUL0JteMH3PtORAPhLOwtP7dd--d-qTZdjHssk78EY2Bp46RJHZ8ZkU1jiQGGIDCnhn~UqQBiVWkgY7aQaIDkkx-yoqmhxBLp263ce5kTWAkuK4eE0TMbS~IpKldKJIFxQdoq4rEQEl6QSYYiNSzY5xRkckS4TMEAVRaAk-BQA8jsM4AegfcjPwMM4opnohS4DpFzjXZsz85DFPEOxYecROqoQsG2IbBsCp3wW9rD-q8Za6MhlbssLONL0ee5vi0iz073UzRhQc~YH7ki-qrtjD1BpLryTixg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −2.99 | (−3.49,−2.52) | −2.30 | (−3.50, −2.50) | −3.06 | (−3.59, −2.58) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu66.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=VaqGv-MT142FL7qZ~lo3ph-K21WQHIhNabtHtdz6RX2tsU7~6cwraFO4pb67IgpAGYmRKh9XFXlrbjSVU1Q5L-BM5OEUAP8UHxFogDvH9Ug5BH6aRgeM44wCBdmNcud5OVg1o4IsqijWsaDVsb-og7leUE7qhdxEH~d4eIVOHj6F9qgiJXOhdNAfgkDYcyKakOIErTG2ewkqI0s1-9Scf8mMX~GQcNO49QVnxSgvHiSOhH6SQcnq~HDgDXtyvD10ZfzHtVlO~7-aqNydK-CcaWdPI~2kMR786YtkRJJTvlbSWRaOqHT2HOVIKulcBOiGaE4vX2Z-TMo45anJh4HgGQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.03 | (−0.08, 0.03) | −0.02 | (−0.07, 0.03) | −0.02 | (−0.07, 0.03) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu67.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=sUxdnmW75Jl2Md0Yx-w~e4w9PF1KewbpdDUS9CxH4pdFJ-IIqfFEG4w80xEcqqYgXqHpoOh5DrBPOyeS7yVGJ1yIJlVmmP-Ywh2RtLXmIuC05vLyKolynVv5JbDJfW-guKMkKtDaeYXzPHOUj7j~96Gips159AbcNV~loc61J8ik9w2l8eeW0DSj7CoCQAfCDwu-M48VUzq7UHuk1vD1c5Pl-oGsMiLSZjAMXG-EwLBjBXZM5~jQjD5DF2JJfczelS7pUw6YC27~CmN-zlDvFfmhCR3UVt4vB1zqTw4gfwfc7eSM3CG0JaMXYtM8DnEVVUlk09pvveahBtIikcGHFg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0.05 | (0.03, 0.07) | 0.05 | (0.03, 0.07) | 0.05 | (0.03, 0.07) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu68.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=ZwbPaptLh5ocpk24yobRFAFu9GBSwcYkIn~gJd~SI1Y7YsfQcG3qzYlnTs9wMd60UyGDWSmkfTUYIDxbRFAz6qj03IOpgdCl62nn7W06yWNsHbFk8pnK3F0-0hsnMiTOojYkx29OVX3rKTPfu0DgK4REThb9zso61NQdWczsclkv~sj6NwwtMR7-1hbj22fTG6UPA~i~UWVBgk03JKeHmoZURTuyA~s34L4VcdCeUb1Y-Y0EaHwwfgwbGQpRYf~OGV9W701MwZJve~YJ1qA3Gb8qkV4AHiTcS8YwcVADRy5gbICRS6UXBS5yuIe137z~ANcmEkrT5y80DsZmfdDW3A__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0.10 | (−0.57, 0.78) | 0.09 | (−0.57, 0.73) | 0.15 | (−0.52, 0.84) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu69.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=Z2iE0TtHX3kO3ou-9M9K2ue-frnoRnNlNqW5-mrq8PMmL1f14~~rdHFfkkraBXEy3Rwg9fI1Rtt4AFJ0OUAlpXqnPYXW2seLIMCeNkSYEXV5POPqJV~jgubRzZiTRIfUP4HgpTOoR1xRPh8Ff73k4ObK8-Zfj3d6E5j0SJW~1LigY9rjnFwyOjOL4HlIiIla6-8bssReb0YFcQHp0y7XlbvhYZL-rxhx7uZyNTHvNnDMJQPWbHiSPBNF0Z405YnyNyTHlgTxVRo2t9~kaWIRy8zFUZMO~FL~pI4qTC4XfFFcr4zjD20a5IqGqT2St-H~h~ay2lf3GSXn2q9i7MDm9Q__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.03 | (−0.12, 0.05) | −0.02 | (−0.10, 0.06) | 0 | (−0.08, 0.08) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu70.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=vwPxhTBx0nFHbswV~erT7LPEK78n43VDbhYanFsGMnUMI1BXhLnBPXQM3HXoxu6Wv7SM4cOb8AWtBxl-Iw8tGR7Oi7Q-BXK1Xv4Znl1mYtQUJ-cg1jkp~pzV4Fv537NPwWVTZGMlcZobTvRqtwaJv4RmUvs1-V5ecv5oNvJpTSSKJ79bxkl5kUCVRfrCK9VC3YOfXlMyoAq-8-M2G-biR8D~werJNyJLTmRLGm6C5JpQopEXrzQ7hXB-CzSu0pZDt9VnBzPVZtatZ-TNyzm-OfCA7nDRE0JMrTz6uDgCXbsNh8Qlw-PhLZphdqbC3~Rkv6clliw-mcP5g6ZR4eZZjA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.03) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.03) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.03) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu71.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=trpa4HHzWZb1N6mPMkvhv4gL7cvsh0qE3p2IlJGCMxFGylgBh1FiMXi08j7bKN3fxzmZ2iajWojEsdbUTYMhOvePZlHJPpegvyy9XPcKO6YPvj59dPlHJhS7JmYWc9Pl9q7jm3nuk5GQDoi5bf65Mjra0aisyalc1ADmattChPsKcn51LogrKDE9S82doYjAV1wO5KP4s~fpv9ToPc5yYgh6pxWeNN1EWnSy34r8iuKF-Aodr7F0~L2v4-tjjID0DNQVwfQwDHaz2uuTdfptsOTtJCeFLgPZ6gMXjmIQNZiLLVcAd8EA-wodcuuvWTzK8q1TzKgpoHVIY7rOMpqcNw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −1.98 | (−2.45, −1.53) | −2.01 | (−2.49, −1.53) | −2.05 | (−2.55, −1.55) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu72.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=Mad5RVnSq1xB5-uaqZeVETJPMfTuJfqx-32jFiE9tgChNOGUOxxqLGgjqJn7PSj6F27AX7addYp~iaQ0xdkIM2-kdGhX3juYMmIXaKjc1ckRZtIXUxuBShIymg3WNPT2Pfn1~qfq7QVMrPz11LpEuHhwvqQhmKV1AlMJPy0XbnvDPl-4VH11WQeJfrrFgahoVnH6OuFO7IiKWlj1waWNT2KgNz1DPNBujXZORDiSWLGFEtITsnWboNnsyt65O64y21wD0r7xwYn6Nwj3urtgd66jg9CKgrR38GXvpzHaAmMinliXYZWbjKU8yUN92Wwe0g0tHdg5EdNN8sjrhpiTyw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.09 | (−0.15, −0.04) | −0.10 | (−0.15, −0.04) | −0.11 | (−0.16, −0.06) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu73.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=AqdFAYCRaX6gOLKVs1YZ59E6pqfpAJM6wvhbEf20EZXpF3TsiDj6H4d1ez1Taf~pR4LIccmcLrL58pcxjZs76U8xn7XjXCAsrHw1v-J1mgT0i2ZzJqMomFmzKUaQ1mdHEt6~VCS5HBZU2tUntKjlV-aU~1gOd5Xzx2~2-rx3mMdfWuJq2K65K5J8byJsjuUqr5zs3-6toJMO8JAhJsVpXuZkyCJNsPURAdYvHBiyeCGr0S2qz0X9FH9ZRXmy5DJtqgknYNFGtfeYn5HZ2j8GFqHPP2JP1dBzXN6RrMuJZMsKxwcXlmcaeZnqM1334DRmjJKY0RZBOZMs4XS3YPLTMw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.05 | (−0.07, −0.02) | −0.04 | (−0.07, −0.02) | −0.04 | (−0.07, −0.02) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu74.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=FQR6NX46Op1iUmFzgVBism1OGVk36rMnsBqWpGsq9MuODbALSdJVW-H9lGDwNGBl9dW8KJxz-kRb7Ubav9ltsxzZGvnVw7wqYxcjh61OOxCXQ3UI9~LXt8N6YmZDXbRR3EeGnjFViIKjr1ddWx8pRB-8YzP-FIY~7Y7cl6dZzgReQZeLuX2insTs~PTLp0zcxd5O9-UPLxUQ7-Zwf7uFYtVX3efF9ghSo5CRZ9Vh7a8N8K-2rusyEcYO73sMuIBDzY70X3QDCnMGNNCU2M-f~aDBQOCJ6jlmYD6OdIY8rJCYfH8EGN0G095GEWTYI2tBXgY~66u6hliwDbbO1a5syw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.18 | (−0.87, 0.52) | −0.25 | (−0.95, 0.43) | −0.20 | (-0.97,0.53) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu75.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=j88Cot2FgrL9hggSr9OXrLzTfCub13IApjz3H~8Nqeufqtiiolus6cUcwuY-vMYn5cB3EoDINrogRPtCFVc-wobgfbMCdiCfFSGuPoPso5fdcs-LLoY0wEo9dKCC2q0~-pCt1Fk~xMVbgptPcaLAaS1IIIlAUz~BdcwCuhhmo2pYDB3egB0X4Nol-ZLvQN4o6GQNK1~HHw3SnKt5x8It9SCRZvvMQ8zii6k1i4GbeI7Ciiy~fSbtzP0R7pLg2Zns7GtJdQtVLG3~PQ2DI97JfxpBtgjo5evThdT-m991EQsTSbMfdeWu5Hq4Ix4bFthWSlvgVbLk7TJKGQaLlFwbrA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.06 | (−0.17, 0.04) | −0.08 | (−0.17, 0.02) | −0.07 | (−0.16, 0.02) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu76.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=5AQlh6Kd86akNbTZJISZby4MIYoIpAhl0hRzYNzOvl-tzJwgEGGgrbnVZuPTlDGmB39eG7oauIQbSP-muxrqCs7Sr6KA9pfyfaqijpzq0RJLBslMk5EVqQYcjJubuiEjA~rHLuZx9FXK-YnZlbv5bsUF32YaXsk1iDCHrxXhRNCUHg2BH1JIrl6SzkfzV4naVmZ7CltEkjKNMinhDW61B~ctM2Nk9W0e0SAbBvVNYmT8NR2J9dYkCgo4g5aLonK7L7cIT3oIs8fcm8DhWDanMRcRx-Q8GzslmsmKg8JZOX-sXedi2o9uUcYx9UHR2ffSzwKMRC9SjLxFVojSNvt3Cg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.04) | 0 | (−0.04, 0.04) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.04) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu77.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=M~kOHBcOpBqmDWlpl2J7M7lMGnqhKf4eAzLZLd0sKOqZYgB3~E0euPqW3ycfCQq3OmjXjyv7ijBonWUdsqPTM8OHeFCrCDygpAcPsm0MEOdr8KFtWQuXpojAgOkfXCl4tEJ93dtNZZ~4JuguQb0WPlEB7ZZE7x28TH1vVpaQ6HTAx1lSTGH8S5uFsDz1PDf2RQYtPdlLegnlYcZOxK6txnCydw~~C25oDU0FUflketaSfSCRlNLH0gv4RMKyKPMKkwE-Cwf9~dM4qe6MFgi-Tyv6fU9lS74Ev1ZoLtYZNI6kTzzCsisclzSFAK9TP~udGpc~te-IE8N-FTliPXkqqg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.04 | (−0.05, −0.03) | −0.04 | (−0.05, −0.03) | −0.04 | (−0.05, −0.03) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu78.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=TsJAQ7iU-QGM3egpSALdV7Zvl57B8vAcG3wcNMPuty8~YlAQQhalj4yFO8jFPpGWN8L9dhTEHv2aQhD7Mb~Q~vQDJnml8rSFDyoEmHoyNegVVAvAtdQF-PRB3KuSxbfU0~tA23-62F5Ci-~wVskagJjMpQ5lC55RSZYsegbcOZuUP7fs9MiU-ORWKYYqZjrjmY3x9jr4wcB5y4Wlcf~wG~GJRE8V4QRZm7e1reXQ0J21ZvJ8e9jezpdr8mRXH2AZQZA1OAV3tBCAvQR~hYUrSENFd-oUwNHx6SHV56H91hfx5dCOtHAtr2paBBC0hPjQKPyjLFVBVWoDteD71glerQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.02) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.02) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.02) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu79.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=LE9WMSnxVCYsmmoNffqGJzIafYrOdEQpx5jZdzi-mnpST5PDAB8huMrOHQ~yJhGP2zV8fSgeI7vu6oXh1GqWjhHevO83HuFSyG~dZdF9FihRrkTPpwQwoPUEtn2NK1GasBqWeXPZzx3vVoBiEE9DqbnKD3wBnqxkXUKH7f3rKuAs3hIXwGVjxdPgwXNdUyT5vULWIWgAeQn8HjmbraMUKc-Ybo7HXeLz5Xoh~bqb0STUoNFkzHXk9QScrARvFGecjtkETpvxel6ZheCsgXO4BmL1kcjwC2WyZG8JZrOrZHvecRKzbSFZOb6Djog3ouj-bEEjZgTJ5K2QZeFQ9WLydw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.02 | (−0.04, 0.00) | −0.03 | (−0.04, −0.01) | −0.02 | (−0.04, 0.00) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu80.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=gEy5LlixOjHQTMGSWZGdcLgTIxF7JYlYDsec4RRCbfJerrdnl0B9sxKIeOV8rDjO6wsBvqnuuoRkoG1Vtkh3ltD3N5WlSq2RfOgJQV~SRH3~CWX~UsBdbVZ2BXWj7AmRcnwliVwwa53JhYHiBdcUyAIdiz7F24QHVY7q1nj4L5MbHQZYXyL9pq8sk7avv5rF86NZj~fVTAE~N1Di320mik5EWPnsnf5eTHKjwv0X7D2vHzI4u3ZOeoxMuFNqkZfysuPiDp8SWa-r0TwlETNUiSBgH2hu395-F4Ifqvrvd5Ts6rTPCz2qvP1Oy1WckNbT6im6otBmegF0p6igrVy8jQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.02) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.02) | −0.01 | (−0.03, 0.02) |
. | τ = 0.25. | τ=0.5. | τ = 0.75. |
---|
美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. | 美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. | 美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. |
---|
β0 | 21.05 | (20.04, 22.06) | 23.28 | (22.20, 24.35) | 25.54 | (24.42, 26.67) |
β1 | 0.20 | (−1.81, −2.18) | 0.25 | (−1.89, 2.33) | 0.29 | (-1.94,2.50) |
β2 | −3.43 | (−3.78, −3.09) | −3.78 | (−4.14, −3.42) | −4.12 | (−4.50, −3.74) |
β三 | 0.79 | (0.09, 1.48) | 0.83 | (0.12, 1.55) | 0.85 | (0.09,1.60) |
λ0 | 106.4 | (92.6, 122.0) | 120.2 | (104.6, 137.8) | 132.4 | (115.3, 152.2) |
λ1 | 9.69 | (8.06, 11.53) | 11.10 | (9.25, 13.25) | 11.81 | (9.79, 14.11) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu65.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=IFieqOG-SL8MWSYUokwk0UNnlULLdJPc3SZ0pXoZqwJvLcwg1H90vTUL0JteMH3PtORAPhLOwtP7dd--d-qTZdjHssk78EY2Bp46RJHZ8ZkU1jiQGGIDCnhn~UqQBiVWkgY7aQaIDkkx-yoqmhxBLp263ce5kTWAkuK4eE0TMbS~IpKldKJIFxQdoq4rEQEl6QSYYiNSzY5xRkckS4TMEAVRaAk-BQA8jsM4AegfcjPwMM4opnohS4DpFzjXZsz85DFPEOxYecROqoQsG2IbBsCp3wW9rD-q8Za6MhlbssLONL0ee5vi0iz073UzRhQc~YH7ki-qrtjD1BpLryTixg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −2.99 | (−3.49, −2.52) | −2.30 | (−3.50, −2.50) | −3.06 | (−3.59,−2.58) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu66.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=VaqGv-MT142FL7qZ~lo3ph-K21WQHIhNabtHtdz6RX2tsU7~6cwraFO4pb67IgpAGYmRKh9XFXlrbjSVU1Q5L-BM5OEUAP8UHxFogDvH9Ug5BH6aRgeM44wCBdmNcud5OVg1o4IsqijWsaDVsb-og7leUE7qhdxEH~d4eIVOHj6F9qgiJXOhdNAfgkDYcyKakOIErTG2ewkqI0s1-9Scf8mMX~GQcNO49QVnxSgvHiSOhH6SQcnq~HDgDXtyvD10ZfzHtVlO~7-aqNydK-CcaWdPI~2kMR786YtkRJJTvlbSWRaOqHT2HOVIKulcBOiGaE4vX2Z-TMo45anJh4HgGQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.03 | (−0.08, 0.03) | −0.02 | (−0.07, 0.03) | −0.02 | (−0.07, 0.03) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu67.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=sUxdnmW75Jl2Md0Yx-w~e4w9PF1KewbpdDUS9CxH4pdFJ-IIqfFEG4w80xEcqqYgXqHpoOh5DrBPOyeS7yVGJ1yIJlVmmP-Ywh2RtLXmIuC05vLyKolynVv5JbDJfW-guKMkKtDaeYXzPHOUj7j~96Gips159AbcNV~loc61J8ik9w2l8eeW0DSj7CoCQAfCDwu-M48VUzq7UHuk1vD1c5Pl-oGsMiLSZjAMXG-EwLBjBXZM5~jQjD5DF2JJfczelS7pUw6YC27~CmN-zlDvFfmhCR3UVt4vB1zqTw4gfwfc7eSM3CG0JaMXYtM8DnEVVUlk09pvveahBtIikcGHFg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0.05 | (0.03, 0.07) | 0.05 | (0.03, 0.07) | 0.05 | (0.03, 0.07) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu68.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=ZwbPaptLh5ocpk24yobRFAFu9GBSwcYkIn~gJd~SI1Y7YsfQcG3qzYlnTs9wMd60UyGDWSmkfTUYIDxbRFAz6qj03IOpgdCl62nn7W06yWNsHbFk8pnK3F0-0hsnMiTOojYkx29OVX3rKTPfu0DgK4REThb9zso61NQdWczsclkv~sj6NwwtMR7-1hbj22fTG6UPA~i~UWVBgk03JKeHmoZURTuyA~s34L4VcdCeUb1Y-Y0EaHwwfgwbGQpRYf~OGV9W701MwZJve~YJ1qA3Gb8qkV4AHiTcS8YwcVADRy5gbICRS6UXBS5yuIe137z~ANcmEkrT5y80DsZmfdDW3A__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0.10 | (−0.57, 0.78) | 0.09 | (−0.57, 0.73) | 0.15 | (−0.52,0.84) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu69.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=Z2iE0TtHX3kO3ou-9M9K2ue-frnoRnNlNqW5-mrq8PMmL1f14~~rdHFfkkraBXEy3Rwg9fI1Rtt4AFJ0OUAlpXqnPYXW2seLIMCeNkSYEXV5POPqJV~jgubRzZiTRIfUP4HgpTOoR1xRPh8Ff73k4ObK8-Zfj3d6E5j0SJW~1LigY9rjnFwyOjOL4HlIiIla6-8bssReb0YFcQHp0y7XlbvhYZL-rxhx7uZyNTHvNnDMJQPWbHiSPBNF0Z405YnyNyTHlgTxVRo2t9~kaWIRy8zFUZMO~FL~pI4qTC4XfFFcr4zjD20a5IqGqT2St-H~h~ay2lf3GSXn2q9i7MDm9Q__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.03 | (−0.12, 0.05) | −0.02 | (−0.10, 0.06) | 0 | (−0.08, 0.08) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu70.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=vwPxhTBx0nFHbswV~erT7LPEK78n43VDbhYanFsGMnUMI1BXhLnBPXQM3HXoxu6Wv7SM4cOb8AWtBxl-Iw8tGR7Oi7Q-BXK1Xv4Znl1mYtQUJ-cg1jkp~pzV4Fv537NPwWVTZGMlcZobTvRqtwaJv4RmUvs1-V5ecv5oNvJpTSSKJ79bxkl5kUCVRfrCK9VC3YOfXlMyoAq-8-M2G-biR8D~werJNyJLTmRLGm6C5JpQopEXrzQ7hXB-CzSu0pZDt9VnBzPVZtatZ-TNyzm-OfCA7nDRE0JMrTz6uDgCXbsNh8Qlw-PhLZphdqbC3~Rkv6clliw-mcP5g6ZR4eZZjA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.03) | 0 | (−0.03、0.03) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.03) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu71.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=trpa4HHzWZb1N6mPMkvhv4gL7cvsh0qE3p2IlJGCMxFGylgBh1FiMXi08j7bKN3fxzmZ2iajWojEsdbUTYMhOvePZlHJPpegvyy9XPcKO6YPvj59dPlHJhS7JmYWc9Pl9q7jm3nuk5GQDoi5bf65Mjra0aisyalc1ADmattChPsKcn51LogrKDE9S82doYjAV1wO5KP4s~fpv9ToPc5yYgh6pxWeNN1EWnSy34r8iuKF-Aodr7F0~L2v4-tjjID0DNQVwfQwDHaz2uuTdfptsOTtJCeFLgPZ6gMXjmIQNZiLLVcAd8EA-wodcuuvWTzK8q1TzKgpoHVIY7rOMpqcNw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −1.98 | (−2.45, −1.53) | −2.01 | (−2.49, −1.53) | −2.05 | (−2.55, −1.55) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu72.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=Mad5RVnSq1xB5-uaqZeVETJPMfTuJfqx-32jFiE9tgChNOGUOxxqLGgjqJn7PSj6F27AX7addYp~iaQ0xdkIM2-kdGhX3juYMmIXaKjc1ckRZtIXUxuBShIymg3WNPT2Pfn1~qfq7QVMrPz11LpEuHhwvqQhmKV1AlMJPy0XbnvDPl-4VH11WQeJfrrFgahoVnH6OuFO7IiKWlj1waWNT2KgNz1DPNBujXZORDiSWLGFEtITsnWboNnsyt65O64y21wD0r7xwYn6Nwj3urtgd66jg9CKgrR38GXvpzHaAmMinliXYZWbjKU8yUN92Wwe0g0tHdg5EdNN8sjrhpiTyw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.09 | (−0.15, −0.04) | −0.10 | (−0.15, −0.04) | −0.11 | (−0.16, −0.06) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu73.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=AqdFAYCRaX6gOLKVs1YZ59E6pqfpAJM6wvhbEf20EZXpF3TsiDj6H4d1ez1Taf~pR4LIccmcLrL58pcxjZs76U8xn7XjXCAsrHw1v-J1mgT0i2ZzJqMomFmzKUaQ1mdHEt6~VCS5HBZU2tUntKjlV-aU~1gOd5Xzx2~2-rx3mMdfWuJq2K65K5J8byJsjuUqr5zs3-6toJMO8JAhJsVpXuZkyCJNsPURAdYvHBiyeCGr0S2qz0X9FH9ZRXmy5DJtqgknYNFGtfeYn5HZ2j8GFqHPP2JP1dBzXN6RrMuJZMsKxwcXlmcaeZnqM1334DRmjJKY0RZBOZMs4XS3YPLTMw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.05 | (−0.07, −0.02) | −0.04 | (−0.07, −0.02) | −0.04 | (−0.07, −0.02) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu74.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=FQR6NX46Op1iUmFzgVBism1OGVk36rMnsBqWpGsq9MuODbALSdJVW-H9lGDwNGBl9dW8KJxz-kRb7Ubav9ltsxzZGvnVw7wqYxcjh61OOxCXQ3UI9~LXt8N6YmZDXbRR3EeGnjFViIKjr1ddWx8pRB-8YzP-FIY~7Y7cl6dZzgReQZeLuX2insTs~PTLp0zcxd5O9-UPLxUQ7-Zwf7uFYtVX3efF9ghSo5CRZ9Vh7a8N8K-2rusyEcYO73sMuIBDzY70X3QDCnMGNNCU2M-f~aDBQOCJ6jlmYD6OdIY8rJCYfH8EGN0G095GEWTYI2tBXgY~66u6hliwDbbO1a5syw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.18 | (−0.87, 0.52) | −0.25 | (−0.95, 0.43) | −0.20 | (−0.97, 0.53) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu75.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=j88Cot2FgrL9hggSr9OXrLzTfCub13IApjz3H~8Nqeufqtiiolus6cUcwuY-vMYn5cB3EoDINrogRPtCFVc-wobgfbMCdiCfFSGuPoPso5fdcs-LLoY0wEo9dKCC2q0~-pCt1Fk~xMVbgptPcaLAaS1IIIlAUz~BdcwCuhhmo2pYDB3egB0X4Nol-ZLvQN4o6GQNK1~HHw3SnKt5x8It9SCRZvvMQ8zii6k1i4GbeI7Ciiy~fSbtzP0R7pLg2Zns7GtJdQtVLG3~PQ2DI97JfxpBtgjo5evThdT-m991EQsTSbMfdeWu5Hq4Ix4bFthWSlvgVbLk7TJKGQaLlFwbrA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.06 | (−0.17,0.04) | −0.08 | (−0.17, 0.02) | −0.07 | (−0.16, 0.02) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu76.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=5AQlh6Kd86akNbTZJISZby4MIYoIpAhl0hRzYNzOvl-tzJwgEGGgrbnVZuPTlDGmB39eG7oauIQbSP-muxrqCs7Sr6KA9pfyfaqijpzq0RJLBslMk5EVqQYcjJubuiEjA~rHLuZx9FXK-YnZlbv5bsUF32YaXsk1iDCHrxXhRNCUHg2BH1JIrl6SzkfzV4naVmZ7CltEkjKNMinhDW61B~ctM2Nk9W0e0SAbBvVNYmT8NR2J9dYkCgo4g5aLonK7L7cIT3oIs8fcm8DhWDanMRcRx-Q8GzslmsmKg8JZOX-sXedi2o9uUcYx9UHR2ffSzwKMRC9SjLxFVojSNvt3Cg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.04) | 0 | (−0.04, 0.04) | 0 | (−0.03、0.04) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu77.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=M~kOHBcOpBqmDWlpl2J7M7lMGnqhKf4eAzLZLd0sKOqZYgB3~E0euPqW3ycfCQq3OmjXjyv7ijBonWUdsqPTM8OHeFCrCDygpAcPsm0MEOdr8KFtWQuXpojAgOkfXCl4tEJ93dtNZZ~4JuguQb0WPlEB7ZZE7x28TH1vVpaQ6HTAx1lSTGH8S5uFsDz1PDf2RQYtPdlLegnlYcZOxK6txnCydw~~C25oDU0FUflketaSfSCRlNLH0gv4RMKyKPMKkwE-Cwf9~dM4qe6MFgi-Tyv6fU9lS74Ev1ZoLtYZNI6kTzzCsisclzSFAK9TP~udGpc~te-IE8N-FTliPXkqqg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.04 | (−0.05, −0.03) | −0.04 | (−0.05, −0.03) | −0.04 | (−0.05, −0.03) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu78.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=TsJAQ7iU-QGM3egpSALdV7Zvl57B8vAcG3wcNMPuty8~YlAQQhalj4yFO8jFPpGWN8L9dhTEHv2aQhD7Mb~Q~vQDJnml8rSFDyoEmHoyNegVVAvAtdQF-PRB3KuSxbfU0~tA23-62F5Ci-~wVskagJjMpQ5lC55RSZYsegbcOZuUP7fs9MiU-ORWKYYqZjrjmY3x9jr4wcB5y4Wlcf~wG~GJRE8V4QRZm7e1reXQ0J21ZvJ8e9jezpdr8mRXH2AZQZA1OAV3tBCAvQR~hYUrSENFd-oUwNHx6SHV56H91hfx5dCOtHAtr2paBBC0hPjQKPyjLFVBVWoDteD71glerQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.02) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.02) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.02) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu79.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=LE9WMSnxVCYsmmoNffqGJzIafYrOdEQpx5jZdzi-mnpST5PDAB8huMrOHQ~yJhGP2zV8fSgeI7vu6oXh1GqWjhHevO83HuFSyG~dZdF9FihRrkTPpwQwoPUEtn2NK1GasBqWeXPZzx3vVoBiEE9DqbnKD3wBnqxkXUKH7f3rKuAs3hIXwGVjxdPgwXNdUyT5vULWIWgAeQn8HjmbraMUKc-Ybo7HXeLz5Xoh~bqb0STUoNFkzHXk9QScrARvFGecjtkETpvxel6ZheCsgXO4BmL1kcjwC2WyZG8JZrOrZHvecRKzbSFZOb6Djog3ouj-bEEjZgTJ5K2QZeFQ9WLydw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.02 | (−0.04, 0.00) | −0.03 | (−0.04, −0.01) | −0.02 | (−0.04, 0.00) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu80.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=gEy5LlixOjHQTMGSWZGdcLgTIxF7JYlYDsec4RRCbfJerrdnl0B9sxKIeOV8rDjO6wsBvqnuuoRkoG1Vtkh3ltD3N5WlSq2RfOgJQV~SRH3~CWX~UsBdbVZ2BXWj7AmRcnwliVwwa53JhYHiBdcUyAIdiz7F24QHVY7q1nj4L5MbHQZYXyL9pq8sk7avv5rF86NZj~fVTAE~N1Di320mik5EWPnsnf5eTHKjwv0X7D2vHzI4u3ZOeoxMuFNqkZfysuPiDp8SWa-r0TwlETNUiSBgH2hu395-F4Ifqvrvd5Ts6rTPCz2qvP1Oy1WckNbT6im6otBmegF0p6igrVy8jQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.02) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.02) | −0.01 | (−0.03, 0.02) |
表3通过增加模型中最后观察到的CD4细胞计数的协变量对儿童艾滋病数据的敏感性分析
. | τ = 0.25. | τ = 0.5. | τ=0.75. |
---|
美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. | 美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. | 美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. |
---|
β0 | 21.05 | (20.04, 22.06) | 23.28 | (22.20, 24.35) | 25.54 | (24.42, 26.67) |
β1 | 0.20 | (−1.81,−2.18) | 0.25 | (−1.89, 2.33) | 0.29 | (−1.94, 2.50) |
β2 | −3.43 | (−3.78, −3.09) | −3.78 | (−4.14, −3.42) | −4.12 | (−4.50, −3.74) |
β三 | 0.79 | (0.09, 1.48) | 0.83 | (0.12, 1.55) | 0.85 | (0.09, 1.60) |
λ0 | 106.4 | (92.6, 122.0) | 120.2 | (104.6, 137.8) | 132.4 | (115.3, 152.2) |
λ1 | 9.69 | (8.06, 11.53) | 11.10 | (9.25, 13.25) | 11.81 | (9.79, 14.11) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu65.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=IFieqOG-SL8MWSYUokwk0UNnlULLdJPc3SZ0pXoZqwJvLcwg1H90vTUL0JteMH3PtORAPhLOwtP7dd--d-qTZdjHssk78EY2Bp46RJHZ8ZkU1jiQGGIDCnhn~UqQBiVWkgY7aQaIDkkx-yoqmhxBLp263ce5kTWAkuK4eE0TMbS~IpKldKJIFxQdoq4rEQEl6QSYYiNSzY5xRkckS4TMEAVRaAk-BQA8jsM4AegfcjPwMM4opnohS4DpFzjXZsz85DFPEOxYecROqoQsG2IbBsCp3wW9rD-q8Za6MhlbssLONL0ee5vi0iz073UzRhQc~YH7ki-qrtjD1BpLryTixg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −2.99 | (−3.49, −2.52) | −2.30 | (−3.50, −2.50) | −3.06 | (−3.59, −2.58) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu66.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=VaqGv-MT142FL7qZ~lo3ph-K21WQHIhNabtHtdz6RX2tsU7~6cwraFO4pb67IgpAGYmRKh9XFXlrbjSVU1Q5L-BM5OEUAP8UHxFogDvH9Ug5BH6aRgeM44wCBdmNcud5OVg1o4IsqijWsaDVsb-og7leUE7qhdxEH~d4eIVOHj6F9qgiJXOhdNAfgkDYcyKakOIErTG2ewkqI0s1-9Scf8mMX~GQcNO49QVnxSgvHiSOhH6SQcnq~HDgDXtyvD10ZfzHtVlO~7-aqNydK-CcaWdPI~2kMR786YtkRJJTvlbSWRaOqHT2HOVIKulcBOiGaE4vX2Z-TMo45anJh4HgGQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.03 | (−0.08, 0.03) | −0.02 | (−0.07, 0.03) | −0.02 | (−0.07, 0.03) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu67.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=sUxdnmW75Jl2Md0Yx-w~e4w9PF1KewbpdDUS9CxH4pdFJ-IIqfFEG4w80xEcqqYgXqHpoOh5DrBPOyeS7yVGJ1yIJlVmmP-Ywh2RtLXmIuC05vLyKolynVv5JbDJfW-guKMkKtDaeYXzPHOUj7j~96Gips159AbcNV~loc61J8ik9w2l8eeW0DSj7CoCQAfCDwu-M48VUzq7UHuk1vD1c5Pl-oGsMiLSZjAMXG-EwLBjBXZM5~jQjD5DF2JJfczelS7pUw6YC27~CmN-zlDvFfmhCR3UVt4vB1zqTw4gfwfc7eSM3CG0JaMXYtM8DnEVVUlk09pvveahBtIikcGHFg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0.05 | (0.03, 0.07) | 0.05 | (0.03, 0.07) | 0.05 | (0.03, 0.07) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu68.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=ZwbPaptLh5ocpk24yobRFAFu9GBSwcYkIn~gJd~SI1Y7YsfQcG3qzYlnTs9wMd60UyGDWSmkfTUYIDxbRFAz6qj03IOpgdCl62nn7W06yWNsHbFk8pnK3F0-0hsnMiTOojYkx29OVX3rKTPfu0DgK4REThb9zso61NQdWczsclkv~sj6NwwtMR7-1hbj22fTG6UPA~i~UWVBgk03JKeHmoZURTuyA~s34L4VcdCeUb1Y-Y0EaHwwfgwbGQpRYf~OGV9W701MwZJve~YJ1qA3Gb8qkV4AHiTcS8YwcVADRy5gbICRS6UXBS5yuIe137z~ANcmEkrT5y80DsZmfdDW3A__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0.10 | (−0.57, 0.78) | 0.09 | (−0.57, 0.73) | 0.15 | (−0.52, 0.84) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu69.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=Z2iE0TtHX3kO3ou-9M9K2ue-frnoRnNlNqW5-mrq8PMmL1f14~~rdHFfkkraBXEy3Rwg9fI1Rtt4AFJ0OUAlpXqnPYXW2seLIMCeNkSYEXV5POPqJV~jgubRzZiTRIfUP4HgpTOoR1xRPh8Ff73k4ObK8-Zfj3d6E5j0SJW~1LigY9rjnFwyOjOL4HlIiIla6-8bssReb0YFcQHp0y7XlbvhYZL-rxhx7uZyNTHvNnDMJQPWbHiSPBNF0Z405YnyNyTHlgTxVRo2t9~kaWIRy8zFUZMO~FL~pI4qTC4XfFFcr4zjD20a5IqGqT2St-H~h~ay2lf3GSXn2q9i7MDm9Q__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.03 | (−0.12, 0.05) | −0.02 | (−0.10, 0.06) | 0 | (−0.08, 0.08) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu70.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=vwPxhTBx0nFHbswV~erT7LPEK78n43VDbhYanFsGMnUMI1BXhLnBPXQM3HXoxu6Wv7SM4cOb8AWtBxl-Iw8tGR7Oi7Q-BXK1Xv4Znl1mYtQUJ-cg1jkp~pzV4Fv537NPwWVTZGMlcZobTvRqtwaJv4RmUvs1-V5ecv5oNvJpTSSKJ79bxkl5kUCVRfrCK9VC3YOfXlMyoAq-8-M2G-biR8D~werJNyJLTmRLGm6C5JpQopEXrzQ7hXB-CzSu0pZDt9VnBzPVZtatZ-TNyzm-OfCA7nDRE0JMrTz6uDgCXbsNh8Qlw-PhLZphdqbC3~Rkv6clliw-mcP5g6ZR4eZZjA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.03) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.03) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.03) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu71.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=trpa4HHzWZb1N6mPMkvhv4gL7cvsh0qE3p2IlJGCMxFGylgBh1FiMXi08j7bKN3fxzmZ2iajWojEsdbUTYMhOvePZlHJPpegvyy9XPcKO6YPvj59dPlHJhS7JmYWc9Pl9q7jm3nuk5GQDoi5bf65Mjra0aisyalc1ADmattChPsKcn51LogrKDE9S82doYjAV1wO5KP4s~fpv9ToPc5yYgh6pxWeNN1EWnSy34r8iuKF-Aodr7F0~L2v4-tjjID0DNQVwfQwDHaz2uuTdfptsOTtJCeFLgPZ6gMXjmIQNZiLLVcAd8EA-wodcuuvWTzK8q1TzKgpoHVIY7rOMpqcNw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −1.98 | (−2.45, −1.53) | −2.01 | (−2.49, −1.53) | −2.05 | (−2.55, −1.55) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu72.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=Mad5RVnSq1xB5-uaqZeVETJPMfTuJfqx-32jFiE9tgChNOGUOxxqLGgjqJn7PSj6F27AX7addYp~iaQ0xdkIM2-kdGhX3juYMmIXaKjc1ckRZtIXUxuBShIymg3WNPT2Pfn1~qfq7QVMrPz11LpEuHhwvqQhmKV1AlMJPy0XbnvDPl-4VH11WQeJfrrFgahoVnH6OuFO7IiKWlj1waWNT2KgNz1DPNBujXZORDiSWLGFEtITsnWboNnsyt65O64y21wD0r7xwYn6Nwj3urtgd66jg9CKgrR38GXvpzHaAmMinliXYZWbjKU8yUN92Wwe0g0tHdg5EdNN8sjrhpiTyw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.09 | (−0.15, −0.04) | −0.10 | (−0.15, −0.04) | −0.11 | (−0.16, −0.06) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu73.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=AqdFAYCRaX6gOLKVs1YZ59E6pqfpAJM6wvhbEf20EZXpF3TsiDj6H4d1ez1Taf~pR4LIccmcLrL58pcxjZs76U8xn7XjXCAsrHw1v-J1mgT0i2ZzJqMomFmzKUaQ1mdHEt6~VCS5HBZU2tUntKjlV-aU~1gOd5Xzx2~2-rx3mMdfWuJq2K65K5J8byJsjuUqr5zs3-6toJMO8JAhJsVpXuZkyCJNsPURAdYvHBiyeCGr0S2qz0X9FH9ZRXmy5DJtqgknYNFGtfeYn5HZ2j8GFqHPP2JP1dBzXN6RrMuJZMsKxwcXlmcaeZnqM1334DRmjJKY0RZBOZMs4XS3YPLTMw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.05 | (−0.07,−0.02) | −0.04 | (−0.07, −0.02) | −0.04 | (−0.07, −0.02) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu74.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=FQR6NX46Op1iUmFzgVBism1OGVk36rMnsBqWpGsq9MuODbALSdJVW-H9lGDwNGBl9dW8KJxz-kRb7Ubav9ltsxzZGvnVw7wqYxcjh61OOxCXQ3UI9~LXt8N6YmZDXbRR3EeGnjFViIKjr1ddWx8pRB-8YzP-FIY~7Y7cl6dZzgReQZeLuX2insTs~PTLp0zcxd5O9-UPLxUQ7-Zwf7uFYtVX3efF9ghSo5CRZ9Vh7a8N8K-2rusyEcYO73sMuIBDzY70X3QDCnMGNNCU2M-f~aDBQOCJ6jlmYD6OdIY8rJCYfH8EGN0G095GEWTYI2tBXgY~66u6hliwDbbO1a5syw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.18 | (−0.87, 0.52) | −0.25 | (−0.95, 0.43) | −0.20 | (-0.97,0.53) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu75.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=j88Cot2FgrL9hggSr9OXrLzTfCub13IApjz3H~8Nqeufqtiiolus6cUcwuY-vMYn5cB3EoDINrogRPtCFVc-wobgfbMCdiCfFSGuPoPso5fdcs-LLoY0wEo9dKCC2q0~-pCt1Fk~xMVbgptPcaLAaS1IIIlAUz~BdcwCuhhmo2pYDB3egB0X4Nol-ZLvQN4o6GQNK1~HHw3SnKt5x8It9SCRZvvMQ8zii6k1i4GbeI7Ciiy~fSbtzP0R7pLg2Zns7GtJdQtVLG3~PQ2DI97JfxpBtgjo5evThdT-m991EQsTSbMfdeWu5Hq4Ix4bFthWSlvgVbLk7TJKGQaLlFwbrA__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.06 | (−0.17, 0.04) | −0.08 | (−0.17, 0.02) | −0.07 | (−0.16, 0.02) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu76.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=5AQlh6Kd86akNbTZJISZby4MIYoIpAhl0hRzYNzOvl-tzJwgEGGgrbnVZuPTlDGmB39eG7oauIQbSP-muxrqCs7Sr6KA9pfyfaqijpzq0RJLBslMk5EVqQYcjJubuiEjA~rHLuZx9FXK-YnZlbv5bsUF32YaXsk1iDCHrxXhRNCUHg2BH1JIrl6SzkfzV4naVmZ7CltEkjKNMinhDW61B~ctM2Nk9W0e0SAbBvVNYmT8NR2J9dYkCgo4g5aLonK7L7cIT3oIs8fcm8DhWDanMRcRx-Q8GzslmsmKg8JZOX-sXedi2o9uUcYx9UHR2ffSzwKMRC9SjLxFVojSNvt3Cg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.04) | 0 | (−0.04, 0.04) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.04) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu77.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=M~kOHBcOpBqmDWlpl2J7M7lMGnqhKf4eAzLZLd0sKOqZYgB3~E0euPqW3ycfCQq3OmjXjyv7ijBonWUdsqPTM8OHeFCrCDygpAcPsm0MEOdr8KFtWQuXpojAgOkfXCl4tEJ93dtNZZ~4JuguQb0WPlEB7ZZE7x28TH1vVpaQ6HTAx1lSTGH8S5uFsDz1PDf2RQYtPdlLegnlYcZOxK6txnCydw~~C25oDU0FUflketaSfSCRlNLH0gv4RMKyKPMKkwE-Cwf9~dM4qe6MFgi-Tyv6fU9lS74Ev1ZoLtYZNI6kTzzCsisclzSFAK9TP~udGpc~te-IE8N-FTliPXkqqg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.04 | (−0.05, −0.03) | −0.04 | (−0.05, −0.03) | −0.04 | (−0.05, −0.03) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu78.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=TsJAQ7iU-QGM3egpSALdV7Zvl57B8vAcG3wcNMPuty8~YlAQQhalj4yFO8jFPpGWN8L9dhTEHv2aQhD7Mb~Q~vQDJnml8rSFDyoEmHoyNegVVAvAtdQF-PRB3KuSxbfU0~tA23-62F5Ci-~wVskagJjMpQ5lC55RSZYsegbcOZuUP7fs9MiU-ORWKYYqZjrjmY3x9jr4wcB5y4Wlcf~wG~GJRE8V4QRZm7e1reXQ0J21ZvJ8e9jezpdr8mRXH2AZQZA1OAV3tBCAvQR~hYUrSENFd-oUwNHx6SHV56H91hfx5dCOtHAtr2paBBC0hPjQKPyjLFVBVWoDteD71glerQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.02) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.02) | 0 | (−0.02, 0.02) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu79.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=LE9WMSnxVCYsmmoNffqGJzIafYrOdEQpx5jZdzi-mnpST5PDAB8huMrOHQ~yJhGP2zV8fSgeI7vu6oXh1GqWjhHevO83HuFSyG~dZdF9FihRrkTPpwQwoPUEtn2NK1GasBqWeXPZzx3vVoBiEE9DqbnKD3wBnqxkXUKH7f3rKuAs3hIXwGVjxdPgwXNdUyT5vULWIWgAeQn8HjmbraMUKc-Ybo7HXeLz5Xoh~bqb0STUoNFkzHXk9QScrARvFGecjtkETpvxel6ZheCsgXO4BmL1kcjwC2WyZG8JZrOrZHvecRKzbSFZOb6Djog3ouj-bEEjZgTJ5K2QZeFQ9WLydw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.02 | (−0.04, 0.00) | −0.03 | (−0.04,−0.01) | −0.02 | (−0.04, 0.00) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu80.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=gEy5LlixOjHQTMGSWZGdcLgTIxF7JYlYDsec4RRCbfJerrdnl0B9sxKIeOV8rDjO6wsBvqnuuoRkoG1Vtkh3ltD3N5WlSq2RfOgJQV~SRH3~CWX~UsBdbVZ2BXWj7AmRcnwliVwwa53JhYHiBdcUyAIdiz7F24QHVY7q1nj4L5MbHQZYXyL9pq8sk7avv5rF86NZj~fVTAE~N1Di320mik5EWPnsnf5eTHKjwv0X7D2vHzI4u3ZOeoxMuFNqkZfysuPiDp8SWa-r0TwlETNUiSBgH2hu395-F4Ifqvrvd5Ts6rTPCz2qvP1Oy1WckNbT6im6otBmegF0p6igrVy8jQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.02) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.02) | −0.01 | (−0.03, 0.02) |
. | τ = 0.25. | τ=0.5. | τ = 0.75. |
---|
美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. | 美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. | 美国东部时间。. | 95%置信区间. |
---|
β0 | 21.05 | (20.04, 22.06) | 23.28 | (22.20, 24.35) | 25.54 | (24.42, 26.67) |
β1 | 0.20 | (−1.81, −2.18) | 0.25 | (−1.89, 2.33) | 0.29 | (−1.94, 2.50) |
β2 | −3.43 | (−3.78,−3.09) | −3.78 | (−4.14, −3.42) | −4.12 | (−4.50, −3.74) |
β三 | 0.79 | (0.09, 1.48) | 0.83 | (0.12, 1.55) | 0.85 | (0.09, 1.60) |
λ0 | 106.4 | (92.6, 122.0) | 120.2 | (104.6, 137.8) | 132.4 | (115.3, 152.2) |
λ1 | 9.69 | (8.06,11.53) | 11.10 | (9.25, 13.25) | 11.81 | (9.79, 14.11) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu65.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=IFieqOG-SL8MWSYUokwk0UNnlULLdJPc3SZ0pXoZqwJvLcwg1H90vTUL0JteMH3PtORAPhLOwtP7dd--d-qTZdjHssk78EY2Bp46RJHZ8ZkU1jiQGGIDCnhn~UqQBiVWkgY7aQaIDkkx-yoqmhxBLp263ce5kTWAkuK4eE0TMbS~IpKldKJIFxQdoq4rEQEl6QSYYiNSzY5xRkckS4TMEAVRaAk-BQA8jsM4AegfcjPwMM4opnohS4DpFzjXZsz85DFPEOxYecROqoQsG2IbBsCp3wW9rD-q8Za6MhlbssLONL0ee5vi0iz073UzRhQc~YH7ki-qrtjD1BpLryTixg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −2.99 | (−3.49, −2.52) | −2.30 | (−3.50, −2.50) | −3.06 | (−3.59,−2.58) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu66.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=VaqGv-MT142FL7qZ~lo3ph-K21WQHIhNabtHtdz6RX2tsU7~6cwraFO4pb67IgpAGYmRKh9XFXlrbjSVU1Q5L-BM5OEUAP8UHxFogDvH9Ug5BH6aRgeM44wCBdmNcud5OVg1o4IsqijWsaDVsb-og7leUE7qhdxEH~d4eIVOHj6F9qgiJXOhdNAfgkDYcyKakOIErTG2ewkqI0s1-9Scf8mMX~GQcNO49QVnxSgvHiSOhH6SQcnq~HDgDXtyvD10ZfzHtVlO~7-aqNydK-CcaWdPI~2kMR786YtkRJJTvlbSWRaOqHT2HOVIKulcBOiGaE4vX2Z-TMo45anJh4HgGQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.03 | (−0.08, 0.03) | −0.02 | (−0.07, 0.03) | −0.02 | (−0.07, 0.03) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu67.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=sUxdnmW75Jl2Md0Yx-w~e4w9PF1KewbpdDUS9CxH4pdFJ-IIqfFEG4w80xEcqqYgXqHpoOh5DrBPOyeS7yVGJ1yIJlVmmP-Ywh2RtLXmIuC05vLyKolynVv5JbDJfW-guKMkKtDaeYXzPHOUj7j~96Gips159AbcNV~loc61J8ik9w2l8eeW0DSj7CoCQAfCDwu-M48VUzq7UHuk1vD1c5Pl-oGsMiLSZjAMXG-EwLBjBXZM5~jQjD5DF2JJfczelS7pUw6YC27~CmN-zlDvFfmhCR3UVt4vB1zqTw4gfwfc7eSM3CG0JaMXYtM8DnEVVUlk09pvveahBtIikcGHFg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0.05 | (0.03, 0.07) | 0.05 | (0.03, 0.07) | 0.05 | (0.03, 0.07) |
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![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu76.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=5AQlh6Kd86akNbTZJISZby4MIYoIpAhl0hRzYNzOvl-tzJwgEGGgrbnVZuPTlDGmB39eG7oauIQbSP-muxrqCs7Sr6KA9pfyfaqijpzq0RJLBslMk5EVqQYcjJubuiEjA~rHLuZx9FXK-YnZlbv5bsUF32YaXsk1iDCHrxXhRNCUHg2BH1JIrl6SzkfzV4naVmZ7CltEkjKNMinhDW61B~ctM2Nk9W0e0SAbBvVNYmT8NR2J9dYkCgo4g5aLonK7L7cIT3oIs8fcm8DhWDanMRcRx-Q8GzslmsmKg8JZOX-sXedi2o9uUcYx9UHR2ffSzwKMRC9SjLxFVojSNvt3Cg__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.04) | 0 | (−0.04, 0.04) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.04) |
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![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu79.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=LE9WMSnxVCYsmmoNffqGJzIafYrOdEQpx5jZdzi-mnpST5PDAB8huMrOHQ~yJhGP2zV8fSgeI7vu6oXh1GqWjhHevO83HuFSyG~dZdF9FihRrkTPpwQwoPUEtn2NK1GasBqWeXPZzx3vVoBiEE9DqbnKD3wBnqxkXUKH7f3rKuAs3hIXwGVjxdPgwXNdUyT5vULWIWgAeQn8HjmbraMUKc-Ybo7HXeLz5Xoh~bqb0STUoNFkzHXk9QScrARvFGecjtkETpvxel6ZheCsgXO4BmL1kcjwC2WyZG8JZrOrZHvecRKzbSFZOb6Djog3ouj-bEEjZgTJ5K2QZeFQ9WLydw__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | −0.02 | (−0.04, 0.00) | −0.03 | (−0.04, −0.01) | −0.02 | (−0.04, 0.00) |
![论坛](https://oup.silverchair-cdn.com/oup/backfile/Content_public/Journal/biometrics/66/1/10.1111_j.1541-0420.2009.01269.x/3/m_biometrics_66_1_105_mu80.gif?Expires=1721233096&Signature=gEy5LlixOjHQTMGSWZGdcLgTIxF7JYlYDsec4RRCbfJerrdnl0B9sxKIeOV8rDjO6wsBvqnuuoRkoG1Vtkh3ltD3N5WlSq2RfOgJQV~SRH3~CWX~UsBdbVZ2BXWj7AmRcnwliVwwa53JhYHiBdcUyAIdiz7F24QHVY7q1nj4L5MbHQZYXyL9pq8sk7avv5rF86NZj~fVTAE~N1Di320mik5EWPnsnf5eTHKjwv0X7D2vHzI4u3ZOeoxMuFNqkZfysuPiDp8SWa-r0TwlETNUiSBgH2hu395-F4Ifqvrvd5Ts6rTPCz2qvP1Oy1WckNbT6im6otBmegF0p6igrVy8jQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.02) | 0 | (−0.03, 0.02) | −0.01 | (−0.03, 0.02) |
5.结论
我们研究了具有不可忽视的间歇性缺失数据和缺失数据的纵向数据的QR。我们使用了2 将受试者特定的回归线缩小到人口线,从而解释受试者之间的相关性。我们假设缺失数据过程通过共享共同的潜在随机效应与纵向结果过程相关。通过利用QR检验函数和ALD之间的关系,我们将QR问题转化为常见的似然框架。我们实现了贝叶斯MCMC方法,该方法自然地提供了模型参数和方差的后验估计。此外,它还自动更新吉布斯采样器中收缩的调谐参数。仿真研究表明,该方法可以有效地消除由不可忽视的间歇性缺失数据和数据丢失引起的估计偏差。
我们的方法对结果变量没有任何分布假设,因此比传统的均值回归更稳健。然而,我们确实对辍学过程进行了模型假设。因为无法根据观测数据直接验证不可忽略的缺失数据机制(Molenberghs等人,2008年),某种形式的敏感性分析,如第4节,应执行。
6.补充资料
第3节中引用的Web附录位于生物计量学 网站http://www.biometrics.tibs.org.
致谢
我们感谢主编、副主编和两位审稿人的富有洞察力和建设性的评论,这些评论大大改进了文章。
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