Nonparametric Predictive Utility Inference

Abstract

We consider the natural combination of two strands of recent statistical research, i.e., that of decision making with uncertain utility and that of Nonparametric Predictive Inference (NPI). In doing so we present the idea of Nonparametric Predictive Utility Inference (NPUI), which is suggested as a possible strategy for the problem of utility induction in cases of extremely vague prior information. An example of the use of NPUI within a motivating sequential decision problem is also considered for two extreme selection criteria, i.e., a rule that is based on an attitude of extreme pessimism and a rule that is based on an attitude of extreme optimism.